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This weekend at UFC 286, Kamaru Usman will face one of the biggest challenges of his career as he attempts to regain the welterweight title from rival Leon Edwards.
Last time Kamaru Usman fought Leon Edwards for the welterweight title, he was knocked out cold. So, can ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ change things around this time?
It definitely won’t be easy for him, as Edwards is a genuinely excellent fighter, but if he performs to his best, Usman should win this fight.
With that in mind, here are five reasons why Kamaru Usman will defeat Leon Edwards to regain the welterweight title at UFC 286.
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#5. Kamaru Usman will be hugely determined to win this fight for the good of his legacy
Prior to his defeat to Leon Edwards, all the talk around Kamaru Usman was the idea that he could perhaps surpass Georges St-Pierre and become the greatest welterweight in UFC history.
‘GSP’ vacated the welterweight title in 2013 after putting together nine successful defenses, and Usman would’ve moved to six had he overcome ‘Rocky’.
The upset loss put an end to any talk of Usman surpassing St-Pierre for the time being, but it’s still not impossible for him to do so.
After all, ‘GSP’ himself suffered an upset loss to Matt Serra early on in his title reign and went on to avenge the loss later on. In the bigger picture, the loss wasn’t something that really affected his legacy.
If Usman can defeat Edwards this weekend, essentially righting the wrong of their previous bout, then there’s no reason why he can’t continue to dominate the picture at 170 pounds and eventually pass St-Pierre and his legacy.
In that sense, this bout is do-or-die for ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’. If he can regain his title, the idea of him becoming the UFC’s greatest welterweight would come alive again. If he fails, the idea would be dead in the water.
Therefore, Usman is likely to be more determined than ever before – and the last time he came into a fight so driven, he almost knocked Jorge Masvidal’s head off.
A determined Usman is near impossible to stop, making him the favorite to win this weekend.
#4. Leon Edwards is unlikely to be able to recreate the magic moment he used to take out Kamaru Usman in their last fight
There’s no arguing with the idea that Leon Edwards’ knockout of Kamaru Usman at UFC 278 was one of the most memorable in octagon history.
It was a picture-perfect head kick, set up expertly, and it landed with less than a minute to go in the final round of a major title fight.
However, for as good a fighter as Edwards is, is it likely that he’ll land such a shot again in this weekend’s fight? In all honesty, it’s unlikely.
Sure, the kick wasn’t a fluke by any means. Edwards timed Usman brilliantly, faked a punch to get his hands to drop, and then leveled him with the kick. However, it’s still fair to say that it was a rarity for ‘Rocky’.
Prior to that knockout, Edwards had stopped just one other fighter on the feet during his UFC career, finishing Seth Baczynski with a head kick way back in 2015.
Essentially, it’s probably fair to argue that Edwards’ knockout of Usman was the kind of once-in-a-lifetime shot that won’t happen again, similar to Gabriel Gonzaga’s knockout of Mirko Cro Cop with a similarly brutal head kick.
If ‘Rocky’ can’t land that big shot again, then, it’s unlikely he’ll be able to win this fight, leaving the door open for Usman to claim a victory.
#3. Leon Edwards will have a lot of pressure on him due to the fight taking place in the UK
In their previous fight between Kamaru Usman and Leon Edwards at UFC 278, all of the pressure was on Usman.
Not only was ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ highly favored to win because of his victories over opponents like Colby Covington and Gilbert Burns, but he already held a win over Edwards from 2015.
‘Rocky’, in contrast, had absolutely nothing to lose and everything to gain, as nobody expected him to come out on top anyway.
That won’t be the case this weekend. While Usman will undoubtedly be under some pressure, it’ll be nothing compared to what Edwards is likely to be feeling.
Not only will the bout be his first title defense, but it’ll also be coming in front of thousands of his countrymen, most of whom will be willing him on to win.
It’s basically impossible to prepare for that kind of pressure, particularly given Edwards hasn’t headlined that many major events before.
‘Rocky’ is undoubtedly a brilliant fighter, but to see him buckle under the strain of the moment wouldn’t be shocking at all.
Usman, meanwhile, has fought under difficult circumstances on plenty of occasions, including in front of a hostile crowd. If either man is likely to be more comfortable this weekend, it’ll be ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’, and that could lead him to victory.
#2. Kamaru Usman won’t underestimate Leon Edwards this time and may fight safer
While he’d probably deny it, it’s highly possible that Kamaru Usman may have underestimated Leon Edwards prior to their bout at UFC 278 last year.
After all, Usman easily defeated ‘Rocky’ in their first fight in 2015. Despite an excellent run of wins, nothing Edwards had done since suggested he could beat ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’.
However, after being knocked out by him, it’s highly unlikely that Usman will be underestimating or overlooking Edwards again this weekend.
If anything, Usman could look to emulate the great Georges St-Pierre’s performance in his 2008 rematch with Matt Serra, who upset him via knockout a year prior.
St-Pierre destroyed ‘The Terror’ and stopped him in the second round, but it was actually a very safe performance from the Canadian that saw him largely rely on his takedowns to wear Serra out.
Usman has been criticized for fighting safely before, most notably in his first bout with Jorge Masvidal in 2020. This weekend, he’d be forgiven for taking a similar route and looking to avoid standing with Edwards.
If ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ decides to turn this fight into a war of attrition by using his superior clinch and wrestling skills, there’s probably not much Edwards will be able to do to stop him. In turn, that could lead to an Usman victory.
#1. Kamaru Usman was dominating Leon Edwards in their last fight prior to the finish
Perhaps the biggest reason for believing that Kamaru Usman will come out on top in his bout with Leon Edwards this weekend is the fact that he was dominating ‘Rocky’ for the majority of their last clash.
Sure, Edwards surprised him by taking him down and dominating the first round, and obviously knocked Usman out in the fifth, but outside of that? The action was largely in favor of ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’.
Not only did he basically outstrike Edwards in the second round, but he comfortably outgrappled him in the third and fourth rounds, and was on his way to a victory in the fifth, too.
When you add in the fact that he also dominated ‘Rocky’ for three rounds in their first clash in 2015, it’s hard to argue with the idea that Usman is the superior fighter, head kick or no head kick.
Therefore, unless Edwards can land a perfect shot like he did last time out, which seems unlikely, then ‘The Nigerian Nightmare’ is likely to dominate this fight too – and come out as the victor this time.
