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This weekend at UFC 278, Leon Edwards will attempt to do what no welterweight in the UFC has thus far managed: defeat Kamaru Usman. In his quest for UFC gold, 'Rocky' must dethrone 'The Nigerian Nightmare'; however, the task is far stiffer than anyone can expect.
Countless others have tried and failed. Tyron Woodley crumbled under the insurmountable pressure and pace Usman imposed on him. Colby Covington twice fell before his greatest divisional rival, first having his jaw broken en route to a bloody TKO loss before losing the rematch after being dropped multiple times.
Despite firsthand knowledge of Usman's weaknesses due to their close friendship, Gilbert Burns also failed to best the reigning welterweight kingpin. And like former friend Colby Covington, Jorge Masvidal also failed in his quest for championship glory. He was first defeated by unanimous decision before being on the wrong end of 2021's knockout of the year.
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The headline bout at UFC 278 will be a rematch several years in the making. Both Usman and Edwards have evolved as fighters, but only one can claim victory this Saturday. While beating Usman is a tall order, this list will outline the five things that the man Usman describes as his toughest foe yet must do in order to emerge victorious.
#5. Fight from long range
Leon Edwards stands at 6 feet 2 inches, while Kamaru Usman is exactly 6 feet tall. Although 'The Nigerian Nightmare' possesses a reach of 76 inches compared to Edwards' 74, the British-Jamaican could mitigate Usman's extra two inches of reach by being two inches taller.
Thus, when Usman and Edwards finally lock horns, the reigning UFC welterweight champion will not enjoy the reach advantage he typically does. Furthermore, Usman's only weapon at long range is his jab, whereas Leon Edwards is a more technical jabber who also kicks well. In their initial matchup, when Usman's inability to strike with Edwards from range became apparent to the Nigerian himself, he tried to kick his foe.
However, because Edwards maintained a longer range than what Usman is used to, the Nigerian kicked ahead of himself and allowed Edwards to easily catch his kick. To find success against Usman, Leon Edwards must replicate this approach and fight from the outside to undercut Usman's jab and force Usman to kick ahead of himself while stinging him from a distance.
#4. Counter Usman's jab
Kamaru Usman's striking has improved leaps and bounds. The current pound-for-pound best UFC fighter has exhibited his growth by knocking his foes unconscious in a manner he could never have done before. However, Usman focuses almost entirely on his jab and right cross as a striker. While he's an apt stance-switcher, his foundation is as an orthodox striker. Leon Edwards will have to counter the threat of his foe's power-jab.
He can do so in multiple ways. First, since 'Rocky' operates from a southpaw stance, he's in open alignment with any orthodox foe. Not only will he change the alignment, but his lead hand will be in the way of Usman's jab, enabling him to either trap the Nigerian's jab or slap it down and counter the jab over the top. If Usman tries switching stances, Edwards will do as he's always done against southpaws who attempt to jab him by using a cross-counter over the top.
The cross-counter will work well against Usman because not only does the Nigerian step in deep to jab, potentially exposing him to counterpunches, but Edwards often takes an outside angle before throwing his cross-counters, allowing him to crack opponents on their open side.
This will be further magnified by Edwards fighting from a longer range, forcing Usman to overextend his jab and creating an opening for another Edwards counter for the jab: the slip-uppercut.
#3. Use his anti-wrestling
Since his initial matchup with Usman, Leon Edwards has improved his defensive wrestling in anticipation of a rematch with 'The Nigerian Nightmare'. When defending takedowns, Leon Edwards makes it a point to counter opponents before they can secure stronger positions. Usman is primarily a clinch-based wrestler who digs for one underhook and an overhook before pinning his foes against the fence to initiate chain-wrestling sequences.
To counter Usman's specialty as a clinch wrestler, Edwards developed a fearsome clinch game of his own. Whenever an opponent tries to trap him in the clinch, 'Rocky' immediately scoots his hips back to deny them the chance of dropping to his hips for a double-leg takedown. Furthermore, he shoves the top of his head against his opponent's jaw to break their posture.
If he can help it, Edwards will not linger in this position. He quickly turns at an angle, forcing his opponent to step in with him. However, they unknowingly step into the path of a sharp elbow as Edwards quickly turns into them with a hard elbow to break the clinch. Against Usman, doing so will be of extreme importance due to the Nigerian's tendency to seek the clinch against foes he cannot outstrike.
#2. Leon Edwards must use his grappling
No one will ever confuse Leon Edwards for a better wrestler than Kamaru Usman. However, to add an extra dimension of danger for his opponent on Saturday, 'Rocky' must make use of his vastly improved wrestling, least of all because Usman never counter-wrestles. Instead, 'The Nigerian Nightmare' merely defends, stopping takedowns while rarely initiating scrambles to force his opponent into compromising positions.
One of Usman's primary methods of defending takedowns is immediately rolling onto his hands and knees to stand back up. Unfortunately, doing so exposes his back, rendering him vulnerable to rear naked chokes, and two of the three submission wins on Leon Edwards' record are RNCs. Thus, 'Rocky' doesn't need to take Usman down successfully; he only needs to force Usman to defend takedowns by rolling onto his hands and knees.
Once Usman attempts to push himself back onto his feet, Edwards can pounce, mounting his foe's back, which Demian Maia did before referee Dan Miragliotta separated them, and which Jose Caceres did to successfully choke the Nigerian unconscious. Lastly, preoccupying Usman with the threat of his grappling will also create more openings for Edwards' striking.
#1. Avoid becoming lackadaisical
At UFC 263, Leon Edwards was booked into what should have been his signature win opposite Nate Diaz. The Stockton legend was an overmatched and undersized opponent who has not, since his return to the weight class, defeated anyone at welterweight other than Anthony Pettis, a lightweight currently signed to the PFL, whose record sits at 3-5 since the loss to Diaz.
No one but Nate Diaz himself expected him to win, so when Leon Edwards turned in a dominant performance as many had predicted, 'Rocky' seemed on course for the most recognizable win of his career. While that was indeed the case, Edwards had a momentary lapse in the fight that led to Diaz rocking him badly in the final round. Despite Edwards' dominant performance, all anyone remembers from the bout is how Nate Diaz nearly knocked out 'Rocky'.
He cannot afford to do the same against Usman, least of all because Usman possesses far more knockout power than the more volume-oriented Diaz. Furthermore, Usman will not taunt or posture in front of a hurt foe; he will instead pounce and finish what he started. If Edwards hopes to win this Saturday, he cannot afford to have even a single lapse in concentration.
