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My season preview articles are coming to a close and soon it will be interesting to see just how close or far off my predictions were. I've done my rankings of the top 10 players in the East and the West going into the season. From a team point of view, I've done my playoff picture predictions for the East and West. Now it's time to discuss the individual hardware. The 2018-19 NBA award predictions.
There are six main NBA awards: Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, Most Improved Player of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, and Coach of the Year.
Last year we saw James Harden finally win an MVP after being the runner-up for the past 2 seasons. The Most Improved Player, Victor Oladipo, exploded this season and surprised almost everybody and showed that the Paul George trade wasn't as clear-cut of a winner as it once was thought to be.
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Despite missing a significant portion of the season, Rudy Gobert was able to come back into form and show the fans why he is the best defender in the game by winning Defensive Player of the Year. Lou Williams managed to get some All-Star acknowledgement despite coming off the bench as he captured the second Sixth Man of the Year award of his career. Lastly, Dwane Casey was able to lead the Raptors to the best regular season in franchise history but was fired after the team choked in the playoffs. His firing did not stop him from winning the 2017-18 Coach of the Year award.
It's going to be a brand new season, which means there may be a brand new set of winners for these awards. For this piece, we will talk about the favourite to win the award and some other candidates. For each player, there will be a reason why they could win it, as well as a reason why they won't.
Here are the predictions for the 2018-19 NBA Awards.
Sixth Man of the Year
Prediction: Lou Williams - Guard, Los Angeles Clippers
2017-18 stats: 22.6 PPG, 5.3 APG, 2.5 RPG
Why will he win?
Since coming to Toronto in 2014, Lou Williams has become a scoring force off the bench who has only gotten better and better. He managed to draw up some All-Star discussions despite being a sixth man, which is unbelievable. The name Lou Williams has become synonymous with Sixth Man, and now he has set a standard for bench players to achieve. He's showing that sixth men can be very valuable to a team. He's proven. He has a track record of being a dominant scorer in the league and is familiar with the role.
Why won't he win?
The Clippers have so many guards on their roster. Lou Williams is the best one among all of them, but it will be interesting to see how Doc Rivers balances the minutes for all the guards. The Clippers also drafted a backcourt duo of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jerome Robinson who may need some time on the court to develop their game. As a result, it may reduce Williams' minutes and his touches.
Other Candidates
Fred VanVleet - Guard, Toronto Raptors
Why will he win?
If you ever watch a Raptors game or see highlights, you will notice Fred VanVleet. His presence on the court is one of the reasons for the Raptors' success. The "bench mob" was the title given to the Raptors bench, who were the best bench in the league last year. VanVleet was the primary playmaker and led the "bench mob" that was so successful this season and helped push the Raptors to their best regular season in franchise history. He does everything on the court and is not afraid to get rough. He puts all his efforts into the game, helps get everyone involved and has been one of the best backup point guards in the league.
Why he won't win?
VanVleet's efforts and impact aren't measured accurately with the standard NBA stats. He only averaged 8.6 points, roughly 2 rebounds and 2 assists per game. When people discuss which players are not shown accurately in the boxscore, VanVleet is a name that always comes up in the discussion. The low numbers are due to the fact he does not receive as many minutes as traditional sixth men such as Lou Williams. His numbers are also low because the "bench mob" moved the ball around a lot meaning no one player stood out with big numbers.
Denis Schroder - Guard, Oklahoma City Thunder
Why will he win?
The newly acquired Thunder is very excited for his role as a sixth man and will be getting a lot of touches off the bench. A problem the Thunder faced last year was their lack of depth. This season, they did improve by adding Schroder and Noel. However, offensively their only viable option off the bench will be Schroder. He will have the opportunity to take over the playmaking and scoring when the Thunder's big two need rest. He has proven he can score, as he is coming off a season where he averaged 19 points per game.
Why he won't win?
Not many players have lived up to their potential playing with Russell Westbrook. It is still unknown how head coach Billy Donovan will balance the minutes and play Schroder. If Schroder gets a lot of minutes playing alongside Westbrook, he won't be able to get many touches and therefore his stats won't be as impressive. His chances of winning this award will depend on his fit with the organization.
Coach of the Year
Prediction: Brad Stevens - Boston Celtics
Why will he win?
There are a lot of people who will argue that Brad Stevens is the best coach in the league right now. He was able to coach his team, who were missing two All-Stars, to the conference finals. If you ask him about his success, he will give most of the credit to his players. To an extent, this is true, but there is no denying that Stevens' work in Boston has helped the organization tremendously.
His defensive schemes, ball movement, and ability to get players to achieve their full potential when they play are all reasons why the Celtics are deep and successful. With Kyrie Irving and Gordon Hayward returning, the team is destined to make a deep playoff run and could potentially challenge Golden State in the finals. He's a great coach and has proven why he is considered one of the best in basketball.
Why he won't win?
People may say the Celtics' success for this coming season will be because of their talent and young players. Consequently, Brad Stevens may not get the credit he deserves. He got a lot of recognition this past playoffs because his team was missing two All-Stars. If everyone is healthy, he may not be in the spotlight anymore.
Other candidates
Quin Snyder - Utah Jazz
Why will he win?
If you sort the coaches by tiers, you would have Gregg Popovich and Brad Stevens in the first tier. The next tier would feature coaches such as Quin Snyder. Snyder was able to completely surpass expectations last season by helping his team to the second round of the playoffs. A lot of this is because of future star and steal of the draft, Donovan Mitchell, and the extraordinary defence of Rudy Gobert. Quin Snyder has been an excellent coach and ensured the talent on his team was properly utilized to finish the season strong.
Why he won't win?
Being in Utah won't give him the publicity he deserves which is unfair but is sadly needed for these types of awards. The Western Conference is also tougher this year, which means there is the chance the Jazz struggle to keep up. It's up to Quin to once again surpass expectations and continue his success on the Jazz sideline.
Mike Budenholzer - Milwaukee Bucks
Why will he win?
Budenholzer has proven to be a very successful coach during his time with the Hawks and has recently been brought in to coach the Bucks. The Bucks have talent on their roster with Antetokounmpo, Brogdon, Bledsoe, and Middleton. They need a quality coach to help push them over the state of being a borderline playoff team. Budenholzer is successful, proven, and will have the necessary talent to push the Bucks further than they have gone in recent memory.
Why he won't win?
The Bucks are still outside the top 3 teams in the East behind Boston, Philadelphia, and Toronto. If Budenholzer isn't able to be in the top 3 in the conference, it is very unlikely he will win the award. He will need to push the Bucks past expectations and give Giannis the opportunity to play at an MVP level in order to be a candidate for the award. It is his first stint in Milwaukee, we can't predict yet how he will change the culture of the team.
Most Improved Player of the Year
Prediction: Markelle Fultz - Guard, Philadelphia 76ers
2017-18 stats: 7.1 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.1 RPG
Why will he win?
Markelle Fultz had the weirdest rookie year. He was the number one overall pick and was the consensus best player of his class leading up to the draft. Quickly the criticism came when Fultz did not play games and his shot wasn't falling. His shooting form looked completely different in the NBA than in college, and it was painful to watch.
Rumours started circulating about whether Fultz had an injury or maybe he was just not a good NBA player. This summer, he's been working with one of the best shooting coaches in the league. The progress of Fultz has been publicized as he aims to regain the form he was expected to have coming into the NBA. His numbers were awful considering he was a number one pick, which is why it should be easier to improve upon it. If he is working very hard on his shot this summer, he should have no trouble silencing the critics and justifying the 76ers' selection.
Why he won't win?
Fultz still hasn't proven himself in the NBA and there is a lot of uncertainty surrounding his play. If everything goes well this summer and he adjusts then he could be an All-Star. However, there is a chance this dream may not happen. He is also the third option on his team, which means he won't get the ball as much as he needs to put up the eye-dropping stats to get the award.
Other candidates
Malik Monk - Guard, Charlotte Hornets
Why he will win
Another player who had a dreadful rookie campaign who will look to make the jump in his second season. Monk will forever be known as the shooting guard selected ahead of future star Donovan Mitchell. Some have already labelled him a bust, but it's too early. In the last 6 games of the season, he found his groove and averaged around 20 points and close to 4 assists a game. If he can sustain that 6 game stretch for an 82 game season, then he should be a quality second option for a team contending for the playoffs next year. Newly hired coach, James Borrego, has publicly said he plans on using Monk more in his coaching plans.
Why he won't win
Again we can't overlook his season struggles for the other 76 games of the season. Monk may have ended on fire, but there have been many players who have had stretches of good games but could never sustain that level of success. Monk will have a lot to prove and overcome this coming season, and hopefully, the pressure won't get to him.
D'Angelo Russell - Guard, Brooklyn Nets
Why he will win
Russell has become one of those young players that everyone is waiting to break out and put big numbers because of the flashes of talent he has shown. Russell is the face of the Nets' organization right now, and he was injured early last season that caused his numbers to drop after being superb early in the year. He is talented and if he can stay healthy, then he could be an All-Star level talent in the Eastern Conference with big numbers.
Why he won't win
He needs to stay healthy. Russell hasn't been able to sustain his stretches of good games for an entire season. So if the pattern repeats again this year then all the hype and expectations that have been set for him since he was drafted will disappear and he may no longer be a focal point for his team. He's still young so he could need a few more seasons to be established. All these factors, mainly the health, will be the reasons why Russell potentially can't win the 2018-19 Most Improved Player of the Year Award.
Rookie of the Year
Prediction: Marvin Bagley - Forward, Sacramento Kings
Why he will win
I don't think Bagley is the best player from the 2018 NBA draft, but he is on a team that will give him the opportunity to put up big numbers. He could average anywhere between 16-20 points per game, along with 8 to 10 rebounds a game. The Rookie of the Year Award is usually given to the player that puts up big numbers, which is the exact position Bagley is going to be in. Unlike his peers, he will be the number one scoring option and will be given huge minutes for the struggling Kings.
Why he won't win
Bagley struggles on defence. We have seen the evolution of the NBA go from big men being the focus to now small ball lineups. Being good as a big man is harder to do now than it was in the past. Bagley may have his defensive weaknesses exposed this season. Teams may focus and target him when he has the ball, making it difficult for him to score.
Other candidates
Luka Doncic - Guard/Forward, Dallas Mavericks
Why he will win
Doncic is, in my opinion, the best player from the draft class and could be a potential superstar in the NBA. He will be the future of the Dallas Mavericks along with Dennis Smith Jr. Doncic has won every award possible in the second best league in the world at only 18/19 years old. There are questions about his athleticism, but his playmaking and versatility scoring the ball are exceptional and he could show why he is the best player in the class if he can transform the Mavericks team.
Why he won't win
He will need to share the ball with Dennis Smith Jr. and Harrison Barnes, which will deflate his numbers and they won't properly reflect his talent. Impact is not based on numbers, but the Rookie of the Year award, more often than not, is based on numbers. His athleticism is also called into question as he may not be fast enough to guard other wings and guards. Doncic will put up all-round numbers his first year but they may not be as glamorous as his peers.
DeAndre Ayton - Center, Phoenix Suns
Why he will win
The number one overall pick from the 2018 NBA draft is expected to be dominant on offence similar to Marvin Bagley. Ayton's dominance on offence has drawn comparisons to Karl Anthony Towns, which should excite all Suns fans. He has said how he and Booker could replicate the magic Shaq and Kobe once had. Even though those expectations are unrealistic, Ayton is a talented big man who could become one of the best offensive big men in the game in a few years.
Why he won't win
Similar to Bagley, Ayton struggles defensively. His defensive weaknesses could be exposed and be too much to overlook when considering the Rookie of the Year contenders. He also is the second option on his team. Devin Booker is expected to continue his scoring rise and be the primary ball-handler of the Suns, which means that Ayton won't necessarily get as many touches as Bagley in order to produce Rookie of the Year-worthy numbers.
Defensive Player of the Year
Prediction: Rudy Gobert - Centre, Utah Jazz
2017-18 stats: 13.1 PPG, 10.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG
Why he will win
The 2017-18 Defensive Player of the Year is my pick to repeat the honour for this coming season. Gobert's impact on defence is one of the main reasons behind the Jazz's success. He is a hard-working individual who takes pride in his craft and constantly searches for ways to improve defensively. Since falling to the late first round of the 2013 NBA draft, Gobert has established himself as one of the biggest draft steals in recent memory. He will look to repeat his incredible impact on the defensive end of the court for an entire season next year.
Why he won't win
With these awards it is difficult to win more than once, it isn't impossible, but it is hard. The NBA tries to find fresh faces to keep the league different from year to year and so Gobert could be at a disadvantage since he has just won the award. With a younger player like Embiid coming up and Kawhi coming back from "injury", Gobert may face tougher competition to win the award.
Other candidates
Joel Embiid - Centre, Philadelphia 76ers
Why he will win
With the future of DeMarcus Cousins uncertain after the torn Achilles injury, you could argue Embiid is the best centre in the league right now. Embiid is dominant and worthy of this title because of his strong two-way game. His presence on and off the court is always noticed, but his ability to defend the big guards, switch to guards, and intensity are worthy of the award. He averaged nearly 2 blocks per game, and is still young and looking to improve his game and has said he plans to work towards winning an MVP this year.
Why he won't win
Health has become the big concern with Embiid. He still is yet to play a full NBA season and still can find himself on minute restrictions during back to back games. Health is the only thing that is holding Embiid back from being one of the elite players in the game. He was nominated for the Defensive Player of the Year award last year and he should be a candidate again this year. However, health and some of his competitors could hold him back from winning.
Kawhi Leonard - Forward, Toronto Raptors
Why he will win
Remember the days when Kawhi was considered a top 3 NBA player? He was a 2-time Defensive Player of the Year prior to all the drama. He is the best perimeter defender in the game and arguably the best two way player in the league when healthy. His dominance on defence is why the Spurs elected him to guard the star players on other teams. Even if they scored many points, it was difficult matching up with Kawhi and they required extra effort to attack the basket. Kawhi's brilliance on defence and him returning to playing in the NBA should establish him as a candidate of an award he has won twice in the last 3 years.
Why he won't win
Similar to Markelle Fultz, we don't know what to expect from Kawhi. In Kawhi's case, he used to be one of the best in the game, but with all this drama and not playing competitively in over a year may make him rusty and not the player we all remember. We will need to see how he adjusts to a new team and a new culture and if he can continue his level of play.
Most Valuable Player of the Year
Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo - Forward, Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18 stats: 26.9 PPG, 10 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 4.8 APG
Why he will win
Giannis has improved on his game every year since coming into the NBA. He was once considered a raw prospect, and now he is one of the best in the game. His monstrous blast of speed and length that allows him to blow past defenders leaves everyone in awe of his freak like nature. Hence the name, the Greek Freak. Giannis came off a season where he put up amazing numbers and if he could continue to improve like he did in years past, he will have the MVP numbers everyone expects him to average in his career.
Why he won't win
MVP award winners typically require their team to be one of the best in the conference if not the league. The Bucks haven't experienced the same team success that Giannis has had individually. The team was a low seed last year and got beat in the first round by a team missing their two best players. Newly hired coach, Mike Budenholzer, is looking to push the Bucks deep into the playoffs. The talent is in Milwaukee but it hasn't translated into wins yet.
Other candidates
LeBron James - Any position, Los Angeles Lakers
Why he will win
LeBron James is still the best player in the league. After he carried the Cavaliers on his back during the playoffs and led them to the finals, he showed why he is deserving of that title and why he is so much better than anyone else in the NBA today. He took his game up a notch, and imagine if he can sustain some of that during the season. It will be scary. He is joining the biggest market in the league with a new roster full of youth and memes, so it will give him the perfect opportunity to dominate in ways that weren't possible with the quality of his team in Cleveland.
Why he won't win
Voter fatigue has been the cause of LeBron not winning the award for many years. Voter fatigue is the idea that the NBA award voters try not to select LeBron so that way there is more diversity in the winners and allows other players to also have the spotlight rather than have LeBron win it every year. Another factor that may hold LeBron back is the tough Western Conference. The Lakers are expected to make the playoffs, it's just a matter of how high they can get in the standings. It is possible they won't finish in a high enough position for LeBron to claim the award.
