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As the first round of playoffs has drawn to a close, we haven't had much by the way of real surprises. While nobody saw the sweeping of the Blazers by the Pelicans coming, it was the general consensus that the Pelicans had the pieces to beat the Blazers in a 7-game series.
And thus, we move on to what is possibly the most mouthwatering matchup of the playoffs: the best point guard and the best wing player in the game pitted against the best big man in the game!
The Warriors play the Pelicans in the Western Conference semifinals. The Warriors got to the second round by making light work of the San Antonio Spurs, winning the series 4-1. One might argue that they could have made even shorter work of the task in the presence of their unanimous MVP, but one would also have to consider the Spurs missing their best player Kawhi Leonard in the equation.
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I digress, however. The likes of Jrue Holiday, Rajon Rondo and Nikola Mirotic have come up big for the Pelicans in the playoffs - in fact, they've all had to raise their game after the Achilles injury suffered by DeMarcus Cousins in late January ruled him out for what could be a whole year of basketball activities.
The Warriors will have an uphill task against a well-coached team with perhaps the best two-way player in the league in Anthony Davis leading them. Let's take a look at how each of these teams matches up against each other:
Strengths
Warriors
The Warriors are the best shooting side in the NBA by all 3 major box score metrics - they ranked first in field goal percentage, first in 3-point percentage and first in free throw shooting percentage over the course of the regular season. They were the only side to crack a 50% field goal conversion rate and one of the three sides to crack 80% conversion from the charity stripe.
In addition, they ranked first in assists per game, first in blocks per game and first in overall points per game through the course of the regular season. The presence of efficient shooters like Curry, Durant and Klay taking their highest volume of shots does tend to increase this figure favorably for them.
Pelicans
The Pelicans have gotten off to the best possible start to their playoff campaign with a 4-0 sweeping of the Portland Trail Blazers. Through those 4 games, they averaged the highest points per game and the highest field goal percentage.
They're third in assists per game, second in blocked shots per game and third in 3-point percentage (2nd among teams that are still alive in the playoffs). They are conceding the fewest free throw attempts per game, and they're tied for the second-highest +/- per 100 possessions behind the 76ers in first.
Weaknesses
Warriors
The Warriors are a turnover-prone team. This was one of their Achilles heels all season long, and they have continued their wastefulness through the first round of the playoffs as well.
Some of this can be attributed purely to their style of play, which requires tough passes be made from time to time and every possession has to have a number of passes to effectively find the most efficient basket. But even conceding for that, they're still giving the ball away for free too often for their own liking.
The Warriors don't have anybody with any chance whatsoever of stopping Anthony Davis on the defensive end. The return of Zaza Pachulia does little to enhance their chances at this uphill task. The likes of McGee, Bell and David West do not have the footspeed or the defensive awareness to do this. Short of putting Kevin Durant on man-to-man duty, they have no strategy for containing Davis readily available.
Pelicans
The Pelicans do not have a body to put on Kevin Durant or even Klay Thompson in this series once Curry makes a comeback. For all of Rajon Rondo's virtues, he does not have the lockdown capability he once did, and that means that even with Holiday packing it into one of the Splash Brothers, the other is left free to face a league-average defender.
The Pelicans' bench unit is not particularly capable of holding its own against the Warriors' deep and varying bench threats. Andre Iguodala, David West, Shaun Livingston, Quinn Cook, Nick Young, Jordan Bell and JaVale McGee will be too much for the likes of Ian Clark, Solomon Hill, Cheick Diallo and Darius Miller.
The Pelicans will have to rely on elite production from its starters for all 4 quarters to just keep pace with the Warriors firing on all cylinders.
Opportunities and Threats
Warriors
With Stephen Curry back, the Warriors will have the opportunity to switch their best 3 of KD, Steph and Klay onto a defender other than Jrue Holiday or Nikola Mirotic on various possessions. They can also get the 3-point shooting going early on with Steph involved in shooting the ball and creating looks for others with his gravity.
They will be wary of the damage that Rajon Rondo can do in the half-court set, however. Rondo has had a great first-round series, and the connection between him and Anthony Davis is probably the best pick-and-roll still in the playoff (even considering the Steph-KD pick-and-roll - a testament to how good Rondo has been this playoff season).
Pelicans
The Pelicans will have to maximize the superiority of their frontcourt. Nikola Mirotic has been good from 3-point range in these playoffs and he would look to continue in the same vein. Jrue Holiday can exploit switches onto Curry to get buckets of his own. Anthony Davis will dominate the boards and protect their rim with a vengeance.
The Pelicans have, however, gotten by the first round mainly due to the trapping scheme they laid out on Lillard. They won't be able to do that on the likes of Curry and Durant, who're elite passers in their own right, unlike Lillard. Draymond is a great playmaker from the post and could reduce Davis' impact inside the paint by finding cutters into the lane with assists.
X-Factor
Warriors
Stephen Curry will bolster the Warriors to a degree that few players in the history of the game have been able to, when he comes back. With him off the court, the Warriors' offensive rating fell by more than 10 points during the regular season. When the Warriors eased Curry back into the lineup in December against the Grizzlies, Curry went 10-of-13 from downtown and prompted Steve Kerr to say:
Everything just looks better. The food in there is going to taste better tonight. My wife’s going to be even better looking than she already is. My kids are going to be happy. Steph, he has that impact. That's the way it is.
Of course, it's only the greatest shooter in the history of basketball that the Warriors have missed in the playoffs thus far.
Pelicans
The Pelicans expected former All-Stars Jrue Holiday and Rajon Rondo to excel in their roles in the first round, but what they got from Nikola Mirotic is indisputably at least as important as any other player they have on the roster save for the Brow.
Mirotic went OFF in game 3 against the Blazers, scoring 30 points on 12-of-15 shooting from the floor. Over the series, he averaged 18.25 points, 9.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals and a whopping 2.5 blocks. The spacing that he provides to the Pelicans' offense can never be overlooked, and on his best day, Mirotic is capable of winning games by himself for any team - as he proved in the first round at the cost of the Blazers.
Prediction
As good as the Pelicans' first-round sweep looks from every angle, this is the Golden State Warriors that they're up against. These Warriors are battling to be recognized as possibly the greatest basketball team ever assembled, and they will have their full complement of players at some point in this series to pick from.
They're coached by Steve Kerr, who's hands down a better coach than Alvin Gentry at this current moment. Other than in frontcourt, there is no area where the Pelicans' roster can compete with that of the Warriors.
The Pelicans will probably be able to win a game at home, but they are not good enough yet to beat the Warriors in a 7-game series, especially while missing DeMarcus Cousins.
With Curry back, the Warriors can find a rhythm on offense again, and will be shooting way more efficiently than they have so far even if the Pelicans turn it up a notch. Having a player with the two best shooting seasons of all time (by True Shooting percentage) tends to help a team's offense.
The Warriors will win the series in 5 games.
