Hawks vs Heat: Prediction, odds, where to watch

The NBA is past its brief one-day break and the play-in tournament is set to begin. The first matchup will be between the Atlanta Hawks and the Miami Heat, who will fight to secure the seventh seed in the Eastern Conference playoffs and a first-round matchup with the Boston Celtics.

The game will take place in Miami and will tip off at 7:30 p.m. EDT. It can be seen on TNT, ESPN and FuboTV.

The Miami Heat enter the game as five-point favorites and -200 on the moneyline. The over/under is set at 228 and the Hawks are +170 underdogs.

Hawks vs. Heat prediction

The Miami Heat (44-38) play a stingy style of basketball that translates well in the postseason. They rank last in the NBA in scoring at 109.5 points per game and 29th in the league in pace. However, they hold opponents to the second-fewest points per game at 109.8.

Miami has struggled from the perimeter this season, shooting just 34.4% from beyond the 3-point arc, which ranks 27th in the NBA. They also are the 27th in team rebounding.

On the other hand, the Atlanta Hawks (41-41) have struggled to find an identity this season. Dejounte Murray's acquisition this past offseason did not go exactly as planned as Atlanta took a step back from its performances over the past two years.

The Hawks rank third in scoring at 118.4 points per game but rank 26th in points allowed. The duo of Trae Young and Dejounte Murray combine for 46.7 points and 16.3 assists per game. Atlanta will be greatly dependent on their play for the Hawks to have success in the matchup.

Whichever team dictates the pace will have the inside track to get the win. While Atlanta has the more talented roster from top to bottom, the Heat have a playoff pedigree and the best player on the court in Jimmy Butler. Expect the six-time All-Star to do whatever is necessary to carry the Heat to the playoffs.

There have been several examples of Butler carrying the team to wins. The Heat are coming off a conference finals run last year. They can be counted on to officially punch their ticket to the playoffs by getting a comfortable win in this one.

Miami has made it to at least the first round of the playoffs every season since Butler has been there from 2019, and this should not be expected to change.