How crucial is three-point shooting in the NBA today?

Mike Miller #13 of the Miami Heat smiles during his post game press conference next to the Larry O’Brien FInals Championship trophy after they won 121-106 against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game Five of the 2012 NBA Finals on June 21, 2012 at American Airlines Arena in Miami, Florida. (Getty Images)

Let’s rewind back to the 2012 NBA Finals. Everyone knows the Miami Heat swept the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 5. But for everyone following the NBA, there was a lesson learned. Mike Miller, till then known only by the select basketball fan core, went from an unheralded talent to a game winner for the Miami Heat.

Till Game 5, not many Miami Heat fans expected a decisive performance from this bench warmer. Miller wasn’t upstaged by the moment as he knocked down seven three-pointers and proved to be the difference in a game Heat won by 15 that earned the elusive Larry O’Brien Championship Trophy. Miller only entered the game as a substitute for a foul-plagued Dwayne Wade and he showed how vital any player could be with just lethal three-point shooting.

Now, let us fast forward to the present day NBA Finals. The series is tied at 2-2 with Game 5 set to take place at San Antonio. But how does a team that does not match the Heat in talent as much as the 2012 Thunder did, capitalise so much to keep it at 2-2. The answer again lies at three-point shooting.

San Antonio’s ability to stay in games, lead the series after Game 1 and 3, has been decided so far by the emergence of two players: Danny Green and Gary Neal. Two players, like Miller, who are not so popular outside the select basketball fan core and found it hard to get a team to sign them.

More often than not, such players get cut by teams that drafted them and ply their trade elsewhere. But how do they become such crucial ball players? The answer again lies in the trend of three-point shooting. Threes decided Game 3 for San Antonio. The same happened in Game 1 – a steal in the NBA Finals that could prove vital in Spurs’ title ascendancy.

The significance of three-point shooting can never be understated. The first reason being the simple mathematical quotient – three is always greater than two. Six threes calculate to 18 while six twos are 12. That is how the vitality of Miller worked for Miami.

He made seven out of eight threes attempted that led to 21 points while Kevin Durant in the same stretch of time, made barely five out of eight field goal attempts. 21 points set the tone for Miami while Durant’s 10 points didn’t help as much to cut the Heat lead.

Danny Green #4 and Gary Neal #14 of the San Antonio Spurs celebrate in the second quarter while taking on the Miami Heat during Game Three of the 2013 NBA Finals at the AT&T Center on June 11, 2013 in San Antonio, Texas. (Getty Images)

The second reason is how much teams forget to guard non-star players from the opposition. Thinking practically, any coach would divert more focus towards guarding LeBron James over Miller or Tony Parker over Green and Neal; quite realistic if you think about it. And subtly, it turns into a minus for the defence than a plus.

While making a jump shot from within the crowded arc may seem the safest bet, the open/available three is something that is arguably easier. Teams often lockdown players within the arc leaving spaces open outside for the three, which often proves to be ever so decisive.

Rewind back to tapes of every NBA Finals and it not only showcases how wide the floor is for two less “threatening” players to stay behind the arc and knock down those easy threes, but why teams forget the presence of such unmasked talents. This isn’t rocket science but just plain oversight.

One thing the NBA has learnt over the years is that players have started taking more and more shots every year. The shot clock rarely strikes 24 seconds with teams rushing into attempting field goals. This has led to a transition in more three-pointers actually taken. Over the years, the number has skyrocketed. In 2007, the Phoenix Suns led by Steve Nash made 785 threes, finishing as the best three-point shooting team.

The same case cannot be said for the 2009 Orlando Magic. Shooting as many as 817 three pointers, the Magic under Stan Van Gundy only finished second. But both these teams had something in common. They made their threes with nearly .400 3P% that saw them make a deep run in the playoffs.

Mediocrity will never win over quality and that can set teams apart. The talk of efficiency leads us back to the game of mathematical quotients. Attempting only threes and making them all is better in terms of statistics and relevance in the game than attempting nine shots and making just 4.

In 1998, the NBA dropped the 22-foot arc and returned the line back to the original dimensions of 23.75 at the top of the arc. Since then, less than 5% of the teams in the playoffs attempt no more than 10 three-pointers in a game. Moreover, today’s NBA sees at least 14 teams take a shot at least 15 three-pointers a game.

Evidently, it is more prominent for a player to take a shot from outside the arc than attempt to drive in. And understandably, the players actually thriving in this era of three-point shooting are actually coming off the bench. The likes of Green, Miller and Neal have proved so in the NBA playoffs.

While the 2013 NBA Finals will still be heavily decided by the hands of Parker and James, it remains to be seen how much emphasis will be given by the defence to counter the three-point shooting strengths of both teams. The Heat have Miller, Ray Allen, Mario Chalmers and James, while the Spurs can rely on the upcoming trio of Kawhi Leonard, Green and Neal to aid the clutch shooting of Manu Ginobili in three-point zone.

Rest assured, basketball will continue to thrive on the prowess of three-point shooting that has become one of the most integral parts of the modern game.