Is Kevin Durant the MVP?

It’s been a while since we have written a feature and since Kevin Durant has been a topic of contention among our writers, each of us will disclose our feelings on KD’s MVP prospects.

Joshua Biers: Do I like Kevin Durant? No, not really. Did I make a bet on whether or not the Oklahoma City would fall to fifth place in the Western Conference during Russell Westbrook’s absence? Yes, definitely. Do I feel tremendously stupid at ever questioning Durant’s ability to carry the Thunder? Without a fucking doubt.

The ‘Durantula’ has scored at least 30 points in EIGHT straight games, including a 54-point effort against the Golden State Warriors and two 40+ point games against the Portland Trailblazers and Utah Jazz. He has averaged close to 14 free throw attempts each game during this streak, and is shooting 52% (98-187) from the field. There is no one in the league hotter than Durant right now, and his incredible stretch of basketball has given Oklahoma City sole possession of first place in the Western Conference. I should be pissed that I lost 50 bucks, but watching Durant dominate every single player that is thrown to him is well worth the loss.

That brings me to the broader question: If the league MVP were to be decided today, would Durant win?

I believe he would. LeBron James might be the best player to ever play the game of basketball, but right now, no one can rival the force that is Durant. To complete the thought, the Miami Heat have lost four of their last seven (with a completely healthy roster), while the Thunder have won five of the last six without their second best player and starting point guard. Oklahoma City has defeated top teams during this stretch, including the Portland Trail Blazers, Houston Rockets, and Golden State Warriors. There was a point during Durant’s 54-point outburst against the Warriors that when he had the ball, I couldn’t process the possibility that he might miss. It was guaranteed points. Durant abused Klay Thompson and Andre Iguodala, Golden State’s top two perimeter defenders. I truly felt sorry for the two, as they were subjected to an array of brilliant drives, pull-up jumpers, and high-arching three’s that were undoubtedly going in. As of today, Kevin Durant is unquestionably the MVP of the National Basketball Association.

Ryan Rodriguez: After Kevin Durant dropped 46 points against the Portland Trail Blazers earlier this week, I got to wondering, is what KD is doing right now actually vaulting him to the top of the MVP race? All year long, I have maintained the mindset that LeBron is the best player in the game (duh), and, by proxy, have also believed that there was no way anyone could challenge him for MVP. LeBron, in my eyes, had proven to be so far superior to everyone in the league that I felt dumb asking if someone was really more valuable than him, and so I never entertained anyone who suggested that someone besides LeBron should be MVP. However, KD is seriously getting me to reconsider my stance with the play he has exhibited this season, especially in the last 15 games since Russell Westbrook went down. This fact, coupled with LeBron seemingly conserving (a term that J. A. Adande smartly has been using instead of coasting) his energy for the playoffs, I think this question is about as real as it has been since 2007-2008 (you can say 2010-2011 when Derrick Rose won, but I contend that LeBron should have one that year anyway).

Many people have their own definitions of how to define and determine Most Valuable Player, and all of these definitions can lead to varying ideas of who deserves the award. However, in basketball, where the best player plays both sides of the ball, thus affecting the game in all ways, it is usually the best player who doubles as the most valuable. So really, by my thoughts, LeBron should basically go unchallenged in his quest for a third straight MVP since he still is the best player in the league. But it would be short-sighted if people just immediately dismissed what we are seeing with our eyes, team context, and how people are performing in given situations. For this reason, I am currently siding with KD as the MVP halfway through the season. This is not solely based on how KD is playing or how LeBron is conserving but rather assessing both of these situations, and, in my eyes, I can’t fully justify giving the MVP to someone who is noticeably picking his spots.

The part that makes part of this feel wrong, is because I completely understand why LeBron is doing what he is doing, he knows after three super long seasons, he needs to be at his best in May and June to reach his goals and is adjusting his in-season play accordingly. KD’s current play has almost been thrust onto him because of Westbrook’s surgery, but I can’t just dismiss the current mindset he is in and has to play with right now, because he has more than answered the call in a way that only a most valuable player can. We give Bron credit for improving his game, constantly increasing his scoring efficiency, learning how to play on the block, and understanding his teammates strengths and seemingly morph his game to whatever is needed at the precise time, but sometimes, I feel we dismiss the gains KD has made. Improvements such as averaging over 5 assists for the first time in his career, as he completes the transformation from scoring extraordinaire to complete offensive extraordinaire. Or how about him averaging 2 more shots than last year (1 more three) and still shooting the exact same percentages as he did last year when we were beside ourselves that a jump shooter by nature could shoot this well. Some people are still hung up on the James Harden trade when assessing the Thunder (basically the Thunder can’t win a title because they lost an All Star and got little in return), but in doing so, they are severely discrediting how much better KD has gotten since the Thunder made it to the Finals two years ago.

All this improvement is great, but if it doesn’t get him into the same stratosphere as LeBron, it would be all for naught when debating the MVP. And that’s the best part about KD now, he has actually vaulted himself into the conversation with LeBron, albeit a conserving LeBron, but still he is now in the King’s realm. Just looking at some stats this year, it is showing to me that my eyes are not fully deceiving me. Take PER (Player Efficiency Rating), where KD has improved to 30.7, or what PER creator John Hollinger says is a Run Away MVP candidate, while LeBron is at 28.9, or a strong MVP candidate. We can also look at True Shooting Percentage, something that takes into account free throws, two pointers, and three pointers, and find that KD is at 64% while LeBron is at 66.1%, otherwise known as a small margin.

Another advance stat that can be thrown at you is win shares (explained here http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html), which is an attempt to place a value on how many wins a player is worth. Well, guess what, KD leads the league in offensive win shares at 8.2 (LeBron, 6.9) and overall win shares at 10.9 (LeBron, 8.6), and also leads the two in defensive win shares (2.8 to 1.7). I am not saying this is perfect stat to measure these two, Steph Curry, a notably bad defender has a defensive win share of 2.2, but when you are splitting hairs between two elites, little things like this matter. There is also the evaluation of defense that has always worked to keep KD some distance behind LeBron, but if we are to believe smart people who watch basketball for a living, this gap may be closing more than we know as well: “Also — and this has flown under the radar — Durant’s been better defensively than James this season.” (Ethan Sherwood Straus, NBA TrueHoop Network). Even if this is a mostly subjective belief, the fact that it can be uttered shows that the gap is definitely closing between these two.

Finally, we get to the term valuable, and this is the easiest debate between the two for me. I know almost all of it is derived from the extended period of time that Russ is missing, but KD is about as valuable as you can get in his situation. On a team that still leaves people wondering at times if their offensive scheme goes much beyond producing points based on KD and Russ’s individual brilliance, KD is surviving and efficiently thriving even though he has to shoulder a ridiculous burden. When Westbrook went down, people were wondering how far the Thunder would drop, instead, they have maintained their spot atop the Western Conference standings. In conclusion, I would have to say, based on the season so far, I would pick KD as the MVP, in no small part because I can’t pick a guy who is visibly conserving while his chief opponent is carrying the heaviest load and playing the best statistical season in the league. I know LeBron is still the best player, but it seems like he is waiting until the postseason to prove this. For that reason, the half-way point, REGULAR SEASON MVP is Kevin Durant.

All stats are from basketball-reference.com.

Matt Tuckness: In my opinion, The Most Valuable Player award is the most subjective award in the NBA. The award is based first on team performance and standing, then based on a players importance to that team. The best example of this is Kobe Bryant during the 2006-07 and 2007-08 seasons.

Kobe’s stat lines for those two years

06-07- 35.4 ppg, 5.3 rpg, 4.5 apg, 1.8 spg, 3.3 tpg, 45% Fg, Team Record 42-40

07-08- 31.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 5.4 apg, 1.4 spg, 3.1 tpg, 46.3% Fg Team Record 57-25

Kobe finished 3rd in MVP voting in during the 06-07 season behind Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, but won during the 07-08 season. Why would a player with arguably better numbers finish behind Dirk Nowitzki and Steve Nash, but win the following year. My first thought was Dirk and Nash had incredible seasons and weren’t as good the following year.

Dirk’s stat line:

06-07-24.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 3.4 apg, .8 bpg, 2.1 tpg, 50.2% FG, 41.6% 3pt, 90.4% ft Team Record-67-15

07-08- 23.6 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 3.5 apg, .9 bpg, 2.1 tpg, 47.9% fg, 35.9% 3pt, 87.9% ft Team Record 51-31

Nash Stat line:

06-07- 18.6ppg, 3.5 rpg, 11.5 apg, .8 spg, 3.8 tpg, 53.2% fg, 45.5% 3pt, 89.9% ft Team Record- 61-21

07-08- 16.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 11.1 apg, .7 spg, 3.6 tpg, 50.4% fg, 47.0% 3pt, 90.6% ft Team Record- 55-27

Both Dirk and Nash had slightly worse numbers the following year, but both had very strong seasons. You may think that they finished 2nd and 3rd behind Kobe but instead they finished 9th (Nash) and 11th (Nowitzki) in MVP voting. That just doesn’t make any sense to me. How is it that you can go from winning an MVP to 11th in voting by dropping 2% points from the field. That was when I realized the MVP is based on team performance, the worst metric to value the most valuable player. As you can see the Lakers record jumped 15 games while both the Mavs and Suns records dropped despite solid performances from their MVP candidates. As you saw from the numbers Kobe’s play stayed relatively consistent from year to year as did Nash’s and Dirk’s. During the year 2007 the Lakers added Pau Gasol one of the best power forwards in the game. Their record increased by 15 games and Kobe won the MVP. What I don’t understand is why Kobe was more valuable in the 07-08 season then he was in the 06-07. There is no way that team wins 42 games without him, yet Dirk won based on his teams higher performance.

I bring this up to help define what the NBA values as the most valuable player and to help define what I value as the most valuable player. According to the NBA the MVP is based on team record and then the best player from that team. In my opinion it should be the best player in the NBA despite his team’s record. Obviously, if you are good your team should be good, but there are special cases like Kobe Bryant. The other way to look at it, if you are the best player on the floor no matter who you play you are the most valuable player in the league.

In regards to the Kevin Durant and LeBron James argument, it is a bit more convoluted. Because of LeBron’s conservation this season in an attempt to make a playoff run his numbers are a bit down. Kevin Durant in the absence of Russell Westbrook has been on fire. Ryan listed the statistical difference between LeBron and KD’s numbers this season, which are important to note. He also made an excellent point that Durant has been better since Westbrook went down and that the Thunder are still first in the west. It is important to not forget that LeBron has played a significant amount of games without Wade this season, in fact D Wade has only played 6 more games then Westbrook this season. There is a 2.5 game difference in records in favor of the Thunder. Yet it feels like the Thunder are dominating despite Russell and the Heat are struggling because of Wade being hurt and LeBron conserving.

This in my opinion is a testament to the greatness of LeBron James and what frustrates me about the MVP award. The collective NBA audience is down on LeBron and the Heat and up on Kevin Durant and the Thunder. Josh Biers is down on the Heat because they have hit a bit of a speed bump. Yet, despite this apparent speed bump they are only 2.5 games behind the Thunder. You could make an argument that Durant has it tougher because he plays in the West, but the Heat have a better win percentage against the West than the Thunder do. This just makes me feel like Durant has closed the gap this season between himself and LeBron. As Ryan stated Lebron can morph his game into whatever the Heat need in a situation to win a game. Durant can do this as well, but not at the level of LeBron. If you asked yourself right now who you would rather have on your team based on their performance now I find it hard for anyone to pick Durant over LeBron and that is the most important stat to me.

What this really means is we need two different awards. One for the best season performance based on team record, season circumstances (like teammate injuries) and stats. Then one for the most valuable or best player in the NBA. Much like how the NFL has an offensive player of the year and a league MVP. It seems like they would go hand in hand and in some situations they would, but for seasons like this one we would have two different winners. Adrian Peterson won both awards last year, but two years ago Brees won offensive and Rodgers won MVP. Rodgers had the most efficient season in NFL history where Brees broke the single season mark for yards. This year I think KD would win the offensive or best season performance and LeBron the most valuable. Even if KD has been putting up better numbers, LeBron is still the best and most valuable player in the NBA. If the season ended today KD would win today’s MVP but it should go to the best player in the NBA or in other words the most valuable and in my opinion that is still LeBron James.