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It's rare for an NBA team to have a bottom-five offensive rating while seriously contending for the postseason. The five worst offensive ratings in the NBA last season were the Oklahoma City Thunder (102.8), Orlando Magic (104.6), Cleveland Cavaliers (105.2), Houston Rockets (107.0), and the Detroit Pistons (107.6). Uncoincidentally, those same five teams also posted the five worst overall records.
Four of those rosters will be repeats on my prediction list for 2021-22. Detroit is the only team not included, and that is because of my ultimate belief in Cade Cunnnigham and Killian Hayes. Cunningham projects himself as an elite engine to a modern NBA offense, and while he will inevitably struggle in his rookie campaign, having a hub with his level of vision and playmaking should lead to notable improvement.
Killian Hayes will still suffer growing pains this season, considering he participated in just 26 games his rookie season but should greatly benefit from Cade's presence. Jerami Grant is a borderline All-Star and Saddiq Bey, Kelly Olynyk, and Isaiah Stewart can make an impact on offense. I don't anticipate a massive leap, but I do think Detroit will no longer be in the bottom five.
Here are the teams I predict to have the bottom five offensive ratings in the 2021-22 NBA season.
#5 - San Antonio Spurs
The Gregg Popovich-led Spurs making this list is probably surprising to most people, but hear me out. Last season, San Antonio finished 19th in offensive rating at 110.5. Notably, DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Rudy Gay, and Patty Mills were all on the roster to begin the 2020-21 season but now find themselves wearing other colors.
DeRozan led the team in both points per game (21.6) and assists (6.9). Their offensive rating dipped to 104.8 when he was on the bench, which would only have trailed the Thunder and Magic last season.
Adding Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Zach Collins, and Joshua Primo doesn't seem like enough to replace their production. The young core of Primo, Dejounte Murray, Lonnie Walker IV, Keldon Johnson, and Devin Vassell are promising but more defense-oriented - especially at this point in their careers.
#4 - Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cleveland Cavaliers posted the third-worst offensive rating of any team in the 2020-21 NBA season. They attempted the third-lowest number of threes per game (29.7) and converted at the league's worst 33.6 percent rate.
Evan Mobley, the third overall selection in the 2021 NBA Draft, projects as an eventual premier shooter whose ability was scarcely seen during his lone season at USC. Kevin Love's days in a Cavaliers uniform feel numbered and relying on Lauri Markkanen to fill his spacing void is suspect.
Jarrett Allen is one of the most efficient players in the NBA, but the now-$100-million man is solely an interior threat. Isaac Okoro has an Andre Igoudala type of game where his slashing and playmaking is prevalent, but the shooting is unreliable.
All the offensive responsibility in Cleveland weighs on Darius Garland, Collin Sexton, and Cedi Osman. Sexton has allegedly been shopped around the NBA, so who knows what this season entails for the young guard.
Garland is my pick for the 2021 Most Improved Player in the NBA, but the roster construction as a whole should keep them in the bottom five of offensive ratings.
Also check out: Complete NBA Preseason TV Schedule for 2021
#3 - Houston Rockets
The Houston Rockets' offensive future is bright, but the present may look foggier than some realize. The core of Jalen Green, Kevin Porter Jr., and Christian Wood will be entertaining but could be notably inefficient.
John Wall is just waiting to be moved to another team, and Eric Gordon is likely hoping for the same, although his substantial contract makes that difficult. If Wall is not apart of this roster, I am not sure where the playmaking comes from.
Last season, the Rockets were 24th in assists per game, 28th in field goal percentage, and 23rd in turnovers. Second overall pick Jalen Green could end up being one of the best scorers in the NBA one day, but he is not ready to initiate an offense with subpar playmaking for others.
Kevin Porter Jr. may be the best option as he averaged 6.3 assists throughout his 26 games in Houston last season. Those assists also came with 3.5 turnovers per night. The offensive potential of reigning Turkish League MVP Alperen Sengun is intriguing, but will take time.
None of D.J. Augustin, Josh Christopher, Khyri Thomas, or Jae'Sean Tate are impressive initiators either. Houston has substantial offensive ceilings in some of its talent, but lacks the playmaking and/or experience to fully unlock that in the 2021-22 NBA season.
#2 - Orlando Magic
The Orlando Magic recorded the second-worst offensive rating in the NBA last season, and only worsened their roster in that regard. Last season included 44 games from Nikola Vucevic, 26 games from Evan Fournier, and 25 games from Aaron Gordon. That's three of their top four scorers from the year prior, now on different rosters.
Terrence Ross is the lone remaining offensive difference-maker, and he joins the young guard group of Cole Anthony, R.J. Hampton, and Jalen Suggs. All three have tremendous potential in the NBA, but guards take longer than most positions to get comfortable and acclimated, and two of them are sophomores while Suggs is a rookie.
Markelle Fultz and Jonathan Isaac could help the cause on both ends, but their statuses are in question while returning from unfortunate injuries. Gary Harris may prove to be as impactful as he probably hopes for a trade, but I doubt it will be enough.
Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner are promising defensive prospects with solid connector traits on offense, but they need efficient, high-use players around them.
The future of Orlando may hold promise, but next season could have an abysmal record.
#1 - Oklahoma City Thunder
After the lottery odds worked out about as poorly as possible for Sam Presti's Oklahoma City Thunder, 2021-22 seems like another season where wins are not a priority. Future development and a willingness to let your young talent play through their mistakes yield poor immediate results with an emphasis on the long term.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is already a top-tier point guard in the NBA and could find himself on the NBA All-Star roster next season. After that, next year's production is full of question marks.
The potential of Aleksej Pokusevski, Theo Maledon, Josh Giddey, and Tre Mann is nothing to scoff at, but their 2021-22 production is likely to be negative.
The Oklahoma City Thunder recorded a 102.8 offensive rating last season, the last in the NBA. The 29th rated Orlando Magic finished with a 104.6 rating, leaving about a two point gap. The Thunder offseason has given no reason to expect that margin to significantly shrink or be overcome.
