Why Alex Sarr is a consensus no.1 pick in 2024 NBA draft

Sitting at the projected top of a weaker 2024 draft class, Alex Sarr’s two-way ceiling makes him a solid potential prize. The French seven-footer showcased his elite defensive talent this past season with the NBL’s Perth Wildcats. He’s firmly in the mold of skinnier, mobile star centers like Evan Mobley, Chet Holmgren and Jaren Jackson Jr who make up for their lack of traditional size and girth with alien-like movement skill.

Modern NBA offenses rely on movement and space more than ever. The greatest offensive players in the world create advantages no matter the defender, necessitating off-ball defenders who close gaps. Enter Sarr, whose freakish ground coverage and mobility mark his star traits. He’s a special off-ball defender, rotating to protect the rim (8% block rate) and easily shut off driving windows.

Aside from his help defense and rim protection. Sarr projects to slot seamlessly into any pick-and-roll coverage his team asks of him. He flashed it all this season, running everything from deep drop to blitzing to switching. Employing Sarr expands your defensive playbook as his mobility, length and feel for the game make him malleable to whatever matchup is in front of him. As the NBA’s defensive meta continues to shift, Sarr’s use will remain no matter where the NBA trends.

Though the movement skills are certifiably elite, Sarr’s lack of elite strength, physicality and vertical explosion limit his paint-defending upside. Sarr sometimes can’t reach balls that other elite rim protectors can because of his more limited vertical pop. He’s a solid leaper but doesn’t explode off the floor like an Evan Mobley can, limiting his scope of impact as a shot blocker.

Strength tends to improve in the NBA as players mature physically and Sarr should be no exception. Physicality, however, can be harder to improve as that’s tied to a prospect’s internal wiring. Is a player willing to do the dirty work, bump bodies all game and impose their will physically? If the answer to those questions for Sarr is yes, there’s no reason he can’t develop into a perennial All-NBA level defender. If not, the ceiling may end slightly lower than his recent big counterparts.

Those same physicality concerns pop up on offense, as Sarr is often reluctant to dominate the interior. Sarr can’t out-muscle some burlier centers, though Sarr will often fade away from contact and look to win with finesse even against smaller players. His .38 free-throw rate and 55.4% mark at the rim in the half-court are both decidedly average across seven-footers who make the NBA.

Alex Sarr scouting report: What enticing upside does the Frenchman present?

How will Sarr score the basketball consistently? That’s the largest looming question surrounding Sarr’s offense. His touch is solid but doesn’t seem to be elite around the bucket. Sarr must space the floor to reach his potential as a perimeter-oriented big. He shot just 27.6% from deep this past season in the NBL, though that number doesn’t encapsulate the entirety of Sarr’s shooting projection.

That 27.6% comes on a minuscule sample of 58 total three-point attempts, not nearly enough to form a stable sample of shooting data. Sarr’s shot versatility — he’s willing to shoot off of the dribble and off movement from all over the floor — bodes well for his shooting upside, as well as his solid 70.7% free-throw percentage.

It’s exceedingly common for teenage basketball players to struggle from three and often times the ones who excel from the mid-range extend their distance capabilities. Sarr’s flashes as a pull-up shotmaker from three and mid-range are legit, as his fluidity and handling let him access shots most centers can’t.

There’s historical precedent for prospects with Sarr’s profile to develop into shooters at the pro level. Sarr won’t need to become a lethal sniper from beyond the arc to succeed. Rather, he’ll need to threaten defenses enough to draw closeouts so his handle can shine brightest.

That ball-handling skill is Sarr’s most enticing offensive trait, as seven-footers rarely dribble the ball as fluidly as he can. Many young centers flash transition ball-handling ability (which Sarr does as well) but struggle to create off of the dribble in the half-court. Sarr thrives as a handler in the half-court, operating with enough control and speed to create offense and run pro-style sets.

At his apex, Sarr could function as a genuine self-creator, burning slower bigs off of the dribble with his speed and shooting through and over smaller defenders. Even if Sarr can’t reach those lofty heights, his proficiency as a hub at such a young age impresses. Plenty of modern NBA offenses run through bigs — think Denver, Sacramento, Cleveland, etc.

Sarr is already capable of flowing into dribble handoffs, working from the high post and even running pick and rolls as the ballhandler himself. For many of these offenses, dribbling centers are cheat codes for flipping matchups on their heads and Sarr can be this. His initiation will be especially deadly if Sarr’s playmaking continues to progress.

Sarr’s passing numbers don’t pop off the page (1.0 assist-to-turnover ratio, 9.5% assist rate). Perth didn’t ask Sarr to make plays as a passer often as his processing speed and decision-making continue to grow. Sarr flashed the ability to pick apart defenses with quick decisions on the short roll and off of his drives, increasing his passing comfort as the season went on.

Even if Sarr reaches a star-level outcome, it probably won’t be right out of the gate like Chet Holmgren or Victor Wembanyama. It’s likely he will end up as one of the weaker number-one picks in recent NBA history if Sarr does end up landing in Atlanta or whoever acquires the number-one pick.

That shouldn’t lead us to ignore, Sarr’s tantalizing potential, though. Sarr might not ever become a franchise-changing star who leads his team to deep playoff runs. But as a versatile defensive anchor with multiple pathways to offensive utility, Sarr will carve his own star path. If everything breaks right, Sarr should end up as a perennial All-Star and a defensive weapon, perfectly complementing his team’s offensive centerpieces. And in a weak draft class, that ceiling is well worth the top pick.