Predicting India’s 2nd-innings score against South Africa in the Centurion Test

Team India gained the upper hand on Day 3 of the Centurion Test against South Africa following a stellar bowling show led by Mohammed Shami. After India’s batting collapsed from 272 for 3 to 327 all-out, Shami led India’s fightback with the ball, claiming 5 for 44 in 16 overs.

With his fifth wicket of the innings, Shami also completed 200 scalps in Test cricket, becoming only the fifth Indian pacer to reach the landmark. Apart from Shami, Jasprit Bumrah and Shardul Thakur also claimed two wickets each as India bundled out South Africa for 197 in 62.3 overs. Thanks to the pacers, India gained a significant first-innings lead of 130.

India ended Day 3 at 16 for 1, losing Mayank Agarwal for 4. They stretched their lead to 146 and will be looking to build on the good work on Day 4.

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How much will India score in their second innings in Centurion?

Following the end of the third day’s play in Centurion, bowling hero Shami revealed that India will look to score at least 250 so they can set South Africa a target of around 400 in the fourth innings.

Speaking at a press conference, Shami explained:

"Two days are left in the Test match, I feel we should be batting the maximum amount of time tomorrow. If we score around 250 runs and set a target of about 400 runs for South Africa we can then allow South Africa to bat for four sessions. But for that we need at least 350 or 400 odd runs."

For India to score 250, they will not only need to bat two sessions, but also score at a brisk pace. If the visitors want to give South Africa a target of 400 and allow themselves four sessions to bowl at the Proteas, they must score at a pace of around 100 runs per session.

India resumed their day on 16 for 1. They cannot be over-aggressive since the South Africans can still come back into the game with early wickets. At the same time, if they bat too slowly, they will have to occupy the crease that much longer, which would mean the Proteas will have to face fewer overs in the fourth innings. So it will be all about finding the right mix between defense and scoring.

What should be India’s approach on Day 4 in Centurion?

India will look to bat out the first hour in Centurion on Day 4, trying to keep wickets in hand. If they manage to do that successfully, they might still have a lead of around 170. The batters can then open up towards the second half of the session.

If India have a solid platform by Lunch on Day 4 in Centurion, they could go much harder in the second session. The likes of Virat Kohli, Ajinkya Rahane and Rishabh Pant can score briskly and up the ante. In such a scenario, it would be possible for India to reach 250 by the end of the second session or early in the third. As a result, they could make South Africa bat and bowl at them for the better part of four sessions.

An alternate scenario could emerge in case India lose early wickets on Day 4. If that happens, the visitors are likely to go into defensive mode as the hosts could come right back into the game. However, it will be crucial for India to keep rotating the strike and not go into the shell. We saw in the first innings in Centurion how India’s batting can unravel rather quickly.

Such batting collapses have been witnessed in the past as well, especially in overseas conditions. So, if Kagiso Rabada and Lungi Ngidi fire on all cylinders, they still put India under pressure. If the batting side loses, two or three early wickets, they could even crumble to something around 140-150 in their second innings. That would leave South Africa a fourth-innings target in the range of 270-280.

What does history say about chases Centurion?

England’s total of 268 in Centurion in the Boxing Day Test of 2019 is the highest team total in the fourth innings. However, it came in a defeat as England were set 376 for victory.

England also hold the record for record for scoring the highest total in a winning chase in Centurion. Chasing 249 for victory after both England and South Africa forfeited their first and second innings respectively, the visitors clinched the match by two wickets in a thrilling finish.

Overall, a team batting fourth in Centurion has scored 200 or more just six times.