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With the first day of the Bahrain GP out of the way, some questions did get admirably answered during the two Free Practice sessions. Now that we have the day's learnings with us, let's get to the fun part of the weekend where we make our predictions for the Bahrain GP qualifying session.
Before we do that, however, let's go through what we feel is the tentative pecking order after the two Free Practice sessions.
Pecking Order for the 2022 F1 Bahrain GP
This time around, due to a lack of definitive data and multiple variables in play, instead of just assigning a rank to each team, we have divided them into three groups according to their pace: Frontrunners, Midfield, and Backmarkers.
Front-runners (Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes)
For now, it does appear that Red Bull and Ferrari are leading the pack. Both teams have been the standouts during the Bahrain GP free practice sessions. Even in the second Free Practice session, it was Max Verstappen who finished at the top of the charts.
Speaking of Mercedes, it took a long, hard thought to put the team amongst the frontrunners based on the form that the team has displayed so far. Mercedes have not looked comfortable on the track one bit and if we are honest, it does appear that the German team is closer to the midfield than the front.
Regardless, banking on their experience and their excellent track record, they find themselves amongst the frontrunners.
Midfield (McLaren, Alpine, AlphaTauri, Aston Martin, Alfa Romeo, Haas)
Moving to the midfield and, well, it is anyone's game right now. McLaren did not have the smoothest of days. The team struggled with some nagging reliability issues and it did appear to have cost them. There is a high probability that McLaren will still be the fourth quickest team on the grid, it's just that we haven't seen any evidence of that yet.
What was interesting, however, was the sudden splash of speed shown by almost every midfield team. Alpine had its moment with Alonso, Alfa Romeo did it with Valtteri Bottas, AlphaTauri had Gasly leading the standings after FP1 while the Haas duo was there or thereabouts most of the time.
It does appear that drivers are going to be key differentiators in the midfield and we might see a surprise or two during the Bahrain GP qualifying.
Backmarkers(Williams)
It's slightly cruel to put Williams alone in the backmarkers category, but the sad truth is that the car is just not fast. It looks good on track for the most part, but somehow it is not translating into lap time. And that is not the case only for this session, this has been the case in general. For now, it does appear that the new Williams challenger is not going to ruffle too many feathers on the grid.
Now, with the pecking order out of the way, let's jump straight to the predictions.
Predictions for the 2022 F1 Bahrain GP Qualifying
Disappointment of the session (Driver)
Daniel Ricciardo further lost out on valuable mileage due to a brake issue in FP2 of the Bahrain GP. The Australian has not had the most runs in the car this season due to multiple issues. As for Bahrain GP qualifying, Ricciardo recently recovered from COVID, and his struggles with a lack of mileage is going to result in a disappointing session.
Disappointment of the session (Team)
In terms of the team, Williams and its lack of competitiveness were well documented even before the FP sessions. What wasn't, however, was the struggle faced by Aston Martin.
Early impressions do reveal that Aston Martin is at the tail end of the midfield group, and if that is the case, it might not be able to make it to Q3. Hence, we're picking Aston Martin to have a disappointing session.
Surprise of the session (Driver)
So here's our first bold prediction of the season. The surprise performance by a driver during Bahrain GP qualifying will be from Nico Hulkenberg. After just two sessions in the car, Hulkenberg was within a tenth of a second of teammate Lance Stroll in FP.
For the qualifying session, we predict Nico Hulkenberg will outqualify Lance Stroll at Aston Martin.
Surprise of the session (Team)
It might be a combination of team and driver, but for the Bahrain GP qualifying, Fernando Alonso appears to be in ominous form. If he continues in the same vein, it won't be a surprise to see him qualify even in the top-5.
The Alpine driver has shown a strong pace this weekend and we are backing the Alpine team to surprise a few teams with its speed during the session.
Top 3 in qualifying
Predicting the top 3 drivers in qualifying is a rather easy task. What isn't is predicting the order in which they will qualify. Right now, Ferrari and Red Bull are the runaway leaders. Out of the two Ferrari and two Red Bull drivers, Sergio Perez is arguably the worst qualifier.
Hence, the top 3 drivers will be Charles Leclerc, Max Verstappen and Carlos Sainz. Now at this stage, it is a tough ask to pick the driver that achieves pole. Considering the level at which Red Bull is operating, however, in our prediction, Max Verstappen takes pole closely followed by Leclerc in second and Sainz in third.
