2022 F1 Monaco GP: Race Predictions

The Monaco GP qualifying is now over and we have Charles Leclerc on pole position. We have Max Verstappen who will in all likelihood start the race in the second row. We also have to wait to see if there is any action taken against Carlos Sainz or whether Red Bull can repair Sergio Perez's car and find no significant damage.

Now we're here for the good part of the race weekend! This is where we sit down, dust off our crystal balls, use our Formula 1 analytical brain, and make predictions about what to expect from the Monaco GP.

So, without further ado, let's jump straight to the predictions for the Monaco GP, where we share what we feel is going to happen in the race.

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#1 Rain or no rain, the Monaco GP will not feature too much on-track action

We hate to break the bubble for you guys, but sadly, this is true. Most of the action that you were going to see this weekend has already happened. For the Monaco GP, the most interesting part of the race weekend is qualifying and we've already seen that.

Now, we are not saying that the main race will be devoid of action because there are always over-eager drivers in F1 and there will be a few during the race as well. The thing, however, is that most of the action will be during the pit stop phase. This is both the beauty as well as the biggest drawback of Monaco in the current era, as it just cannot produce wheel-to-wheel action.

The cars are too big and the track is too narrow. That is exactly why you won't see many (if any) overtakes on the track, regardless of rain or no rain. Will there be strategic variables? Sure, they will be, and in all probability, they will be the ones that influence the race the most.

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#2 Charles Leclerc will win the Monaco GP

Charles Leclerc has looked in dominating form this weekend and his combination with Ferrari has looked unbeatable. Throughout the weekend, we have seen that every time someone has tried to challenge Leclerc's supremacy and displaced him at the top of the standings, he has responded with a time that has been even quicker and sometimes just completely out of reach for his competitors.

This was the case during qualifying as well because, red flag or not, Leclerc was not going to be beaten by anyone for pole position. That's a given! He was just too fast for everyone on the grid during qualifying. Now, if this race was on a different track where there is at least a chance to overtake, then maybe we could have picked Max Verstappen as well.

Even if Verstappen had started on pole position, he could have gotten a vote. The reality is that the Dutchman is starting on the second row of the grid in the fourth position. He is the only driver Leclerc needs to worry about on this grid. Having two cars between him and Leclerc, it's not going to be easy for Verstappen to challenge his rival.

Additionally, the race is in Monaco, a track where you can lap seconds slower than the pursuing car and still keep your position. Unless Ferrari or Leclerc makes a huge goof-up or the infamous "Monaco GP Curse" makes an appearance, we are more or less looking at Charles Leclerc, picking up the win.

Now, surely there will be some who will have doubts because rain is predicted. As a driver, Leclerc has shown in Imola that he is more than capable in wet weather, therefore it will come down to strategy. Unless Ferrari goofs up, the race win should be Leclerc's.

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#3 Daniel Ricciardo will have a horrible race

It was a bit sad to see Daniel Ricciardo's demeanor this weekend. The Australian seems like a lost man at McLaren. His performances have been rather poor recently. The suggestion from Zak Brown that McLaren knows a way out of Ricciardo's long-term contract is a clear sign that the team is starting to lose patience. It's never good news if your team boss raises question marks in the media. To make things worse, Ricciardo has never suffered this much against any teammate, and as a competitor, this will be eating him up!

For the Monaco GP, while Lando Norris will start the race in P5, Ricciardo will start in P14. Starting so low down the grid is one thing on other tracks and a kettle of fish in Monaco. You can't overtake, you have to drive to the speed of the driver you're chasing, and to make things worse, with no fuel stops in F1 for more than a decade, drivers cannot have the kind of strategic flexibility that the early years of F1 used to have.

The Monaco GP is going to be a painful race for Daniel Ricciardo, a race where it is very hard to envision him even scraping through into points

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#4 Max Verstappen will struggle to make places in the Monaco GP

Max Verstappen has had the strangest of things happen to him at Monaco this time. He's essentially slower than his teammate this weekend! When was the last time Verstappen's teammate had the edge over him? We'll have to go back to Daniel Ricciardo's Red Bull days to see when it happened.

Having said that, Verstappen did show a turn of speed later in the session in Q3 where he was on a flying lap that was quicker than Sergio Perez but had to be cut short due to the Red Flag. So unless he nails Perez at the start of the Monaco GP, he could find himself staring at a Red Bull's rear for the entire race.

This week, it does appear that things are not clicking as they used to, and hence, Verstappen could find himself in a precarious situation where the only way he can get ahead of Perez is through team orders. There might be a lot of shenanigans involved and we could be looking at a race where the reigning champion might struggle.

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#5 We're going to see a Red Flag

Now, this is not a random thought but something that can be determined by going through the facts:

1. It is the first Monaco GP with new regulation cars
2. These cars have already caused two Red Flags
3. There will be rain
4. The race director seems trigger happy to pull out a Red Flag as soon as possible

The new era of F1 craves action and one ploy that could be used to add it to the race is by introducing Red Flag stoppages that cause a complete reset.

Hence, for the Monaco GP, keep an eye on a Red Flag stoppage!