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After all the speculation surrounding his immediate future, it does appear that Sergio Perez will not be replaced by Daniel Ricciardo at Red Bull for the 2024 F1 season. The last couple of races have seen Perez score good points and seal P2 in the championship for himself. All of these seem to have given him enough momentum that Red Bull is not tempted to replace him right now.
It did, however, appear to be a slippery slope for the Mexican a few races back when he had not found his groove and was going through a rough run of races. Ricciardo was primarily brought into the fold for this very reason because he was seen as someone who could potentially replace Perez if the performances didn't improve.
Looking at Perez having a couple of strong races, one would assume it seals his fate for next season, isn't it? Well, in this feature I'll argue contrary to that. Even though Perez seems to be in better form in the last two races, Red Bull should go ahead and replace him with Ricciardo. Here's why!
Sergio Perez's recent surge in form a product of enhanced Red Bull advantage
Sergio Perez has put together two strong races in Brazil and Las Vegas. In Brazil he finished the race in P4, just off the podium, and in Las Vegas, he finished in P3. Having said that, while those results do appear to be an improvement of sorts, there's a bigger question at play here.
Are these results a product of Perez improving his form or are Red Bull's improved competitiveness played a role? Let's take a look at the feature race in Brazil first and in that race, Perez starts the race from P9 and progresses through the field to finish P4.
Now, in Brazil, both Mercedes and Ferrari had real struggles with tire wear, and both cars were quite far off the pace of frontrunners. Coming to the race in Las Vegas then again in that race Sergio Perez was unable to qualify well and it was Red Bull's competitive car that brought him into contention.
When you look at all these things it becomes clear that the key weaknesses are still there. Perez still struggles in qualifying and leaves too much to do on Sunday. That weakness is still there and if it wasn't for the Red Bull rivals struggling a lot in Brazil and Las Vegas, Perez would have struggled.
If Mercedes and Ferrari had their conventional level of competitiveness, Perez would not have been able to achieve this result.
Daniel Ricciardo has done decent enough to gamble on him
The much-talked-about potential replacement for Sergio Perez, Daniel Ricciardo hasn't really set the world on fire. He's been good, he's had a strong weekend in Brazil as well. However, since the car is not competitive enough, it's hard to truly impress in the lower midfield.
Ricciardo has done what he could do best. He's taken opportunities to beat Yuki Tsunoda, his only true adversary on the F1 grid right now.
With Perez not having shown the kind of improvement that Red Bull is seeking, Ricciardo might just be a proper option for the team.
Chasing Pack could catch up next season leaving Max Verstappen vulnerable in races
One of the major examples of race weekends that could make Red Bull nervous are the ones in Qatar or Silverstone. These were two races where Max Verstappen was leading he was being chased by the McLaren duo of Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris. Fortunately for the team and the driver, Red Bull had pace in reserve and hence did not have to worry about McLaren using an alternate strategy with its two drivers to box him into a corner.
Having said that, what if next season we have a similar scenario? What if McLaren or Mercedes or even Ferrari closed the gap sufficiently enough with Red Bull, could they employ something like this? That is the point where Sergio Perez's deficiency as a poor qualifier comes out in the open.
As an alternative Daniel Ricciardo is a much better qualifier and he certainly doesn't lose anything in the races either. The regulations are restrictive and hence the cars are starting to converge. When that is the case, should Red Bull continue to have Perez, a liability in qualifying as the backup for Verstappen?
It almost appears that after three years as a Red Bull driver, one can almost guess what one can expect from Perez. At the same time, Ricciardo seems to offer a better peak and possibly a better option.
Red Bull would not want to find itself in a position next season where Max Verstappen is left to fend for himself at the front of the grid while his teammate is in the midfield.
It might be a harsh decision to take but it does make sense that the team bites the bullet and replaces Sergio Perez with Daniel Ricciardo.
