Copa America 2015: Top 5 contenders for the Golden Boot

Neymar and Lionel Messi – From teammates to opponents for Copa America 2015

Whoever told you that we’re approaching the home stretch of this year’s football season is either a) misinformed or b) ignorant of the fact that while the Copa America might not be the premier competition in football, it still is the oldest international (inter-continental) football competition. With teams finalising their rosters for this tournament, the time has come for us to look into our crystal balls and make a few predictions.

We begin with the top contenders for the Golden Boot.

Edinson Cavani

If Uruguay are to replicate even a scintilla of their 2011 magic, El Matador will have to play bellwether. A Luis Suarez-less Uruguay attack is indeed toothless, but the frills of Edinson Cavani aren’t too shabby either. With 11 goals from his last 11 games, Cavani seems to be shaping up quite well in the run-up to the Copa America. And with the ramshackle defences of Jamaica and Paraguay - Uruguay’s company in Group B – waiting to be plundered, Cavani must be licking his fingers.

Suarez’s absence though, may prove to be a double-edged sword for Cavani. For, while every striker relishes being the sole fulcrum of the attack, Cavani seems to have gotten accustomed to playing second fiddle to Zlatan Ibrahimovic. With nobody to feed off and hardly any quality playmakers to provide, Cavani will have it all to do.

Another point of concern is the fact that Cavani has pulled blanks in all of his last three games against quality defences.

**CAVANI STATS - 2014/15**
	Matches	Shots on target	Mins per goal	Goals
Ligue 1	33	58	153	16
Champions League	10	12	154	6
French Cup	3	N/A	90	3
French League Cup	3	N/A	70	3
Champion’s Trophy	1	N/A	-	0
International	1	N/A	90	1
Total	51	N/A	138	29

Prediction: Cavani will score in scores against the smaller teams, but he could struggle against the big teams.

Carlos Tevez

Why would a 31-year old striker relying on pace, who last scored for his country 1400 days ago, be in the provisional squad, you ask? Why would a player on the same team as Lionel Messi and Sergio Aguero even be considered as an option?

Take this: 50 goals in his last two seasons, not to mention two consecutive Golden Boots. Carlos Tevez is the real deal, as we observed how the Juventus forward dealt Real Madrid a mortal blow in the Champions League semi-final. It will be interesting to see where Gerardo Martino deploys Tevez – most likely a three-pronged attack – and whether he starts.

Prediction: There’s no stopping this bulldog. Uruguay, Jamaica, Paraguay, (Messi, Aguero), beware!

**TEVEZ STATS - 2014/15**
	Matches	Shots on target	Mins per goal	Goals
Serie A	31	63	125	20
Champions League	12	24	118	9
Supercopa Italiana	1	N/A	45	2
Coppa Italia	1	N/A	-	0
International	2	N/A	-	0
Total	47	N/A	121	31

Neymar

Fortunately for Brazilian fans, they will come face-to-face with Colombia in the early stages. When they do square up against each other, Neymar will have his shot at retribution with Juan Zuniga; mano a mano as is custom in South America. Zuniga was thrust into the limelight after he injured Neymar in the 2014 World Cup. The Brazilian eventually missed the rest of the tournament and Brazil's World Cup campaign on home soil was consequently derailed.

Neymar had set the World Cup alight until his unfortunate injury. And he has run riot in the La Liga all season. He has the likes of Phillippe Coutinho and Firmino to provide opportunities to score. What could possibly go wrong?

Prediction: Extra sharp studs and Neymar will go a long way. If he decides to wear blunt ones though, expect another vertebral lapse. If he does manage to survive the showdown, well, new-friend Messi will be waiting.

**NEYMAR STATS - 2014/15**
	Matches	Shots on target	Mins per goal	Goals
La Liga	31	54	109	22
Champions League	11	22	104	9
Copa Del Rey	5	N/A	85	6
International	2	N/A	N/A	1
Total	49	N/A	102	38

Sergio Aguero

Strikers hardly come any deadlier than Sergio Aguero. With the lowest minutes-per-shot ratio (17 minutes) after the extremely ambitious Ronaldo (14 minutes), not to mention the lowest minutes-per-goal ratio in all of Europe’s top five leagues behind Cristiano Ronaldo and Messi, Kun Aguero is as clinical as a thermometer.

Competing for the Golden Boot seems to have become his raison d’etre, and he will leave no stone unturned in trying to do so in June. Likely to partner Messi, or be the focal point of the triumvirate completed by Tevez, Aguero must already have started visiting the nightmares of the Paraguayans – against whom Argentina will play their first fixture.

**AGUERO STATS - 2014/15**
	Matches	Shots on target	Mins per goal	Goals
Premier League	31	73	94	25
Champions League	7	14	92	6
FA Cup	1	N/A	-	0
League Cup	1	N/A	-	0
International	2	N/A	90	1
Total	39	N/A	96	32

Prediction: Nobody likes wearing one shoe. With the Premier League Golden Boot all but his, Aguero could find his pair-piece in the 2015 Copa America.

Lionel Messi

It must be noted that Messi’s prolific goalscoring ability hasn’t transcended the vagaries of intra-continental football. Notwithstanding that, Messi still enters the 2015 Copa America as the strongest contender for the Golden Boot, simply because he is Messi.

A lukewarm World Cup campaign was still enough to win him the Golden Ball. So, even if Messi is a shadow of himself in the Copa America, he could still end up scoring the most goals; so wide is the chasm between Messi and the rest of the (South American) world.

If Messi does fire on all cylinders though, God save the teams on the receiving end.

**MESSI STATS - 2014/15**
	Matches	Shots on target	Mins per goal	Goals
La Liga	36	110	80	40
Champions League	12	30	106	10
Copa Del Rey	5	N/A	N/A	3
International	4	N/A	N/A	3
Total	57	N/A	92	56

Prediction: Let’s put it this way - Messi will have to produce an abysmal campaign to not contend for the Golden Boot.