Top Five: Clubs that hold the key to the transfer market

At the moment, the transfer market is ticking along quietly. After Monaco’s initial explosion of activity, the big name players have spent more time connected to clubs than they have in moving to them. Of the major European clubs, only Barcelona’s move for Neymar has really caught the eye, but with all £50m+ of the transfer fee going to Brazilian club Santos who are very unlikely to be pumping it back in to the European market, it won’t have the consequence of kick-starting things. For the market to get going, there are certain things that need to happen. For all the gossip to end up in movement requires these five clubs to light the fire.

Spurs

Spurs hold the key to the European transfer window exploding in to life because they have Gareth Bale. His future has a direct impact on the most clubs. If Real Madrid do offer £85m, and Spurs accept it, it will set off a domino effect across Europe. If Spurs have £85m in their pockets, they will spend it. Under Daniel Levy, they have always spent what they make in the markets, but they spend it on twice as many players in return. Last summer, they sold Modric and van der Vaart and used the money to purchase Adebayor, Dembele, Dempsey, Lloris and Vertonghen. With this in mind, and with a good squad that needs a bit more quality in it, with £85m they could do some serious damage and flood different countries with cash.

Suddenly, Paulinho, Guarin, Benteke, Damiao, Lamela, Michu, Bender and everyone they’ve been linked can be looked at with serious intentions of signing more than one of.

If they decide not to sell him all of those clubs will miss out on potential win falls.

Clubs affected: Real Madrid, Corinthians, Inter Milan, Aston Villa, Roma, PSG, Swansea, Bayer Leverkusen, Atletico Mineiro, St. Etienne, Internacional more.

Aside from Real and PSG who want Bale, all of the other clubs own players who Spurs have been heavily linked with. If they don’t sell Bale they can maybe sign one or two of them, but with £85m all these clubs could have £15-20m of their own to then continue the trickle down around the world. Spurs’ decision impacts the most different countries of any club.

Real Madrid

We’ve seen the impact of Real’s courtship of Gareth Bale around the world market and Real have the power and money to push it through. They are also pursuing Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani and their decision on which one of them to buy will be key. If they go for Suarez, it’s likely that Liverpool would use the cash to invest in the defence, possibly sending Schalke £18m for Papadopoulos. They can then invest that money elsewhere and keep hold of Draxler. If they go for Cavani it would have a bigger impact. Suddenly Chelsea have missed all their forward targets and new Napoli manager Rafa Benitez will have deep pockets to look at Torres, Skrtel and any others he wants.

Clubs affected: Spurs, Liverpool, Schalke, Napoli, Chelsea.

Chelsea

Chelsea are places quietly, relatively speaking, but they have big decisions to make. If they choose to sell Kevin De Bruyne to Borussia Dortmund it means Ajax will have to look elsewhere to sell Christian Eriksen. If they decided to keep Courtois, Atletico Madrid would have to spend money somewhere else in order to cover his loss. They may well look in to selling Torres and Ba which would mean teams like Napoli and possibly West Ham would need to find ways of getting together money to get their men. In terms of recruits, Chelsea will surely be targetting central defensive and central midfield upgrades. This could end up with money going to Porto for Mangala or Benfica for Matic. Both Portugese clubs would then be able to keep other stars and spend more money in South America as is usual.

Clubs affected: Napoli, Ajax, Borussia Dortmund, Porto, Benfica, Atletico Madrid.

Paris St. Germain

PSG might have lost their market advantage, but they could still block other teams from raiding in France. Teams like Arsenal and Spurs have recently shopped in France but if PSG do keep up with their stated policy of sweeping top young French talents, that will be blocked. It will also mean that if they were to sign a few youngsters from the likes of Lyon or St. Etienne, these clubs could perhaps then hold on to their key players. Half of Europe would be frustrated to see St. Etienne’s Aubameyang become unavailable. If PSG were to sign Yohan Cabaye (Kebab?) it would send £23m Newcastle’s way, which with Joe Kinnear at the helm, would almost certainly make it’s way to other Premier League clubs. PSG want a star but it’ll be hard to find. Perhaps another deal with AC Milan for El-Shaawary?

Clubs affected: Lyon, St. Etienne, Bordeaux, Newcastle, AC Milan, Arsenal, Spurs

Benfica

Benfica have a host of players that teams want; Matic, Garay, Salvio, Gaitan, Cardozo, Rodrigo, John and Melgarejo have all been linked to more than one club. Benfica would only need to sell one of these and then everyone else would be off limits. They would then most likely direct their money towards South America imports, which would could see the likes of Atletico Mineiro with Bernard or Dede at Vasco de Gama on their radar, and they would then spend money on players from other clubs in their leagues. Benfica will be in direct competition with Porto for these top talents, so they may feel selling one of their stars to fund moves for others makes sense.

Clubs affected: Chelsea, Man United, Barcelona, Real Madrid, Atletico Madrid, Monaco, PSG, Spurs, Arsenal, Man City, Borussia Dortmund, Porto, Atletico Mineiro, Vasco de Game, Santos.