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‘Super’ Sage Northcutt and Shinya Aoki are set to throw it down when ONE Championship makes its hotly anticipated return to Tokyo, Japan, for ONE 165 this Sunday, January 28.
After years of back-and-forth exchange between the pair on social media, a feud that seemed apparent from Aoki’s end during the press conference in December last month, the talented lightweight superstars go toe-to-toe in an intriguing clash of styles.
Northcutt’s hands have ferocious power to shut down anyone standing across him. But he’ll be up against a veteran of almost 60 fights, who has danced with some of the best stand-up specialists across 22 years of experience in the all-encompassing sport.
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‘Tobikan Judan’ should have it in him to minimize Northcutt’s efficiency when they trade before taking things to the canvas, where he does his best work, as proven by the 30 submission wins on his slate.
On the flip side, however, Sage Northcutt’s quickfire submission win over Ahmed Mujtaba proves that the Evolve MMA and Team Alpha Male representative will bring an element of surprise on the ground.
With plenty of key battles in a variety of situations, we pass it on to Sportskeeda MMA’s team of experts to weigh in and make their picks on this exciting lightweight tie that goes down inside the Ariake Arena this Sunday.
Ted Razon: Sage Northcutt by TKO in R2
ONE 165 is stacked to the brim with premier talent, but this showdown between Sage Northcutt and Shinya Aoki may just end up stealing the show.
We’ve watched Aoki drown his foes using his elite BJJ skills for years, and that game plan won’t change anytime soon against Northcutt. I expect the Japanese legend to initiate a grappling exchange as early as possible by tying up the American in the clinch or by pulling guard.
‘Super’ Sage’s improvements on the ground should be tested like never before, and he must find a way to disengage once ‘Tobikan Judan’ gets a hold of him. I believe the younger Northcutt’s speed and athleticism should allow him to keep this fight standing.
Distance management will be key for Northcutt, and he’ll have the upper hand if he can soften up Aoki from the outside with his swift kicks to the body. I foresee Northcutt tagging Aoki once he lets his guard down and finishing him with a barrage of strikes.
Mike Murillo: Sage Northcutt by TKO in R2
'East versus West' and a 'Battle of the Ages' is how I see this fight. And I have Sage Northcutt winning this by TKO in the second round on the strength of being the younger fighter who carries more power.
Based on his last two MMA fights, which he both lost by TKO, Aoki at this stage of his illustrious career is no longer built for the long haul and Northcutt could well capitalize on that by taking it hard to the Japanese legend at the onset.
Aoki though is a proud fighter, more so since the match will be held on home turf, and I expect him to make a tough stand in the early goings of the scheduled three-rounder.
But eventually, I have ‘Super’ Sage willing his way to the win with telling blows that Aoki would have a hard time handling.
Vince Richards: Sage Northcutt by KO in R3
Shinya Aoki hasn’t been on the best run of his career, but it would be a death sentence to just discount the Japanese legend.
The former ONE lightweight MMA world champion is still one of the craftiest fighters in the game, and it would be dangerous for Sage Northcutt to get into a grappling exchange with the submission wizard.
Northcutt, however, is too fast and too strong for Aoki at this point in his career.
I expect Sage Northcutt to try to push the tempo with his striking and trying to prevent Aoki from bringing the match to the ground. It will be imperative for ‘Super’ Sage to capitalize on his speed and agility to run circles around Aoki on the feet.
If Sage Northcutt doesn’t get tangled up on the ground, then this fight is in his bag.
James De Rozario: Sage Northcutt by KO in R1
Aoki hasn’t been quite himself as of late, and his recent record speaks for itself. Hence, I’m siding with ‘Super’ Sage Northcutt in this lightweight MMA barnburner.
The Evolve MMA and Team Alpha Male athlete has an advantage in every department, bar grappling. He has the stamina to stand-and-bang for three rounds straight, the IQ of a world champion, and almost every attribute you can throw in the mix where MMA is concerned.
Of course, all this can only come into play if he can avoid being at the mercy of Aoki’s brutal savage ground game.
But that is exactly what I expect him to achieve against the BJJ specialist who has been around the block.
Aoki’s urge for a takedown will give Sage Northcutt room to operate on the feet, and he should find a way to counter with a couple of kicks and punches to accomplish his quest of moving up the lightweight rank.
ONE 165 airs live on Sunday, January 28, via global pay-per-view on watch.onefc.com.
