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The 2023 NFL draft is just days away. After grinding away at the film of over 300 prospects and putting out extensive scouting reports, I’m once again trying to do the impossible of predicting what will happen on Thursday during the first round of the draft.
However, I also don’t want to forget about the five fanbases of teams that don’t currently own picks on Day 1. Based on a few mocks I did personally, along with looking through consensus boards, I have linked them to prospects that make sense.
This is me predicting what I believe will happen, rather than who I would pick (even though there are some names swirling around that I just didn’t feel comfortable putting in the first round). Now let’s dive in with pick number one and the Carolina Panthers:
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#1. Carolina Panthers – Bryce Young, QB, Alabama
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As crazy as this pre-draft process has been, I have never wavered on the idea of Bryce Young going first overall. He’s now the overwhelming favorite at -1400 on the betting market, which tells us it’s basically a done deal.
Yes, he’s a historic outlier at 5’10”, around 190 pounds in terms of actual playing weight, but he’ll be the QB1 on most team’s boards. This is because he sees the field extremely well and is willing to stand in the face of pressure to deliver big-time throws, along with the special play-making skills that he provides.
By trading away D.J. Moore to acquire this pick, the Carolina Panthers’ receiving corp leaves much to be desired. But they have built a strong, young offensive line and could have one of the top defenses in the league under Ejiro Evero (similar to the surrounding pieces Bryce had at Bama). With the strong staff Frank Reich has built in Carolina, I think they could be ready to go in a wide-open NFC South.
#2. Las Vegas Raiders – C.J. Stroud, QB, Ohio State (via HOU)
This is where the chaos/fun starts. It does seem somewhat like the Houston Texans are trying to set up some kind of scenario for themselves, how they may not love this quarterback class and that they might go with a top-tier edge rusher at this spot. But I just don’t see how you can just stick-and-pick a non-QB here.
So instead, I have the Las Vegas Raiders trading up from seventh overall, in exchange for picks 70 and 141, along with a second- and third-rounder next year, in order to secure their franchise signal-caller in C.J. Stroud.
Josh McDaniels did reunite with Jimmy Garoppolo in Vegas and I could see him starting early on, but Stroud’s ability to play from within the pocket and deliver strikes off their heavy play-action game as well as operating in a spread-out passing attack will be very intriguing to him.
GM Dave Ziegler and company have already kind of gone all-in with the moves they made last offseason, and now they’re swapping Derek Carr for somebody on a rookie contract to be able to keep the roster mostly intact.
Ziegler’s comments about their outlook at the position and how they don’t really take the results of the S2 test into account – after people have started making a big deal of Stroud’s poor performance – sealed the deal for me.
#3. Indianapolis Colts – Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida (via ARZ)
If there’s one team in this draft that we pretty much know for certain wants to trade out of their pick, it’s the Arizona Cardinals. They have definitely done their part to sell the idea that they’ve received a bunch of calls, but may ultimately have to settle for a smaller offer.
I have them switching one spot with the Indianapolis Colts (who have been linked to number one when the Bears still owned that pick and for that slight move up), in order to secure their quarterback in Anthony Richardson. In this case they give up pick 79 and one of their fifth-rounders. The Colts have been desperately trying to find an answer at that spot, with several veterans putting their careers to rest in Indy, so it’s time to go the exact opposite route and grab the most talented signal-caller in the class.
Richardson is obviously an insane athlete for the position and should have immediate success in a rushing offense that looks very similar to what Shane Steichen ran in Philadelphia. Bbut he’s also not nearly as raw a passer as the media is making him out to be.
His desire to play the position from within the structure and his manipulation of key-defenders, along with the pocket-navigation you simply can’t teach, make me believe he could end up being the diamond of this draft.
#4. Arizona Cardinals – Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech (via IND)
So after moving back one spot, the Cardinals still get their choice of non-quarterbacks and they need help on defense in a major way, on the front- and back-end. However, with the retirement of J.J. Watt and not being able to re-sign Zach Allen, that’s where I think they need to attack.
Even though new GM Monti Ossenfort probably doesn’t have the same weird obsession Steve Keim put on display of wanting these hybrid defenders with unique skill-sets, I believe Tyree Wilson is well worthy of that selection.
He's not as far along technically as Alabama’s Will Anderson, but the way this kid can move at 6’6” and 275 pounds is nuts. He packs insane natural power to discard blockers and create issues in the run game, but his pressure-per-pass rush rate of 19.2% last season – even though it did come against Big-12 competition – was actually superior to everybody currently projected to go in the first round.
#5. Seattle Seahawks – Will Anderson Jr., EDGE, Alabama
Speaking of Will Anderson, I don’t believe the Seattle Seahawks looked at this as a real possibility a couple of months ago. But with the hype around the quarterback class and Wilson reportedly climbing up boards, this is how I could see things shaking out (unless the Texans legitimately are locked into the Alabama superstar at number two overall).
If he does make it here, I have a tough time seeing John Schneider, Pete Carroll and company passing up one of the great cornerstone players in this draft (looking at how hard he works on his game to set a physical edge against the run and his ability to convert speed-to-power to condense the corner in the pass game).
Seattle has invested several high draft-picks into the position, but this guy will set the table for that unit and become the leader for them early on already, while Uchenna Nwosu slides back into a more fitting role of Robin to Anderson’s Batman.
#6. Detroit Lions – Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois
This seems like the chalk pick at this point, looking at all the mock drafts out there, but one I’ve had in mind for months already. When Detroit signed cornerbacks Emmanuel Moseley and Cam Sutton in free agency, I considered going a different route here for a bit, but once they decided to trade away former number three overall pick Jeffrey Okudah to Atlanta, this became a lock for me.
Devon Witherspoon may be half an inch short of six feet and just over 180 pounds, but he plays like nobody has ever told him that. His junkyard dog mentality will fit perfectly with the culture Dan Campbell has built in the Motor City, but this guy has elite cover-skills on top of it, whether it’s the lightning-quick ability to click-and-close, the recovery burst to make up for being a little too aggressive at jumping routes at times and how great he is attacking the catch-point.
He could be that number one corner defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn needs to make a more man-heavy scheme work if he wants to get back to his roots.
#7. Houston Texans – Will Levis, QB, Kentucky (via LV)
With the noise around passing on a quarterback and going with Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson second overall, the Texans drop to down to the number seven slot and both those edge defenders are off the board. However, one of the big-four signal-callers is still available and listening to reports out there, he may actually be their QB2 anyway.
Will Levis has received a lot of hate during this pre-draft process. And while I understand some of the frustration around lazy footwork at times and some the immature decision-making (on the field and in choosing the stuff he likes to eat), he comes very much in the mold of the prototype the NFL has typically looked for (a big frame, strong arm, incredible toughness and leadership qualities).
Even though this is a little high for my taste, if you go back to the 2021 tape, when he was totally healthy, some of the big-time throws he delivered and what he added as a runner on top of it, makes me understand why you would want to invest a first-round pick into him.
#8. Atlanta Falcons – Jalen Carter, IDL, Georgia
We’ve arrived at the eighth overall pick and my number one overall prospect is still on the board. Obviously, the reason Jalen Carter would be available at this point has nothing to do with what we saw on the field, even though some “analysts” out there are looking for engagement by saying he doesn’t always play hard.
If the Atlanta Falcons feel comfortable with the kid off the field, they couldn’t let the nearby product slip by them. Carter is a special athlete on the interior D-line, with insane flexibility and twitch for the position, but also the brute strength to control and shed offensive linemen at will.
Atlanta is desperately looking to upgrade a pass-rush that has recorded 23 fewer sacks than any other team in the league over the past two seasons combined and they haven’t been able to put any real impact-players along the D-line with Grady Jarrett. Carter has a chance to become a superstar for them and he has those big brothers next to him now in Jarrett and recently-signed Calais Campbell.
#9. Chicago Bears – Paris Johnson Jr., OT, Ohio State
General manager Ryan Poles has already done everything he can to set to the table for a very strong draft (by acquiring additional draft assets and D.J. Moore when he moved down eight spots with the Panthers).
Now that they’ve committed themselves to Justin Fields under center and have added Moore and a guy who they just spent a second-rounder on at the trade deadline in Chase Claypool, along with Darnell Mooney, it’s time to protect their franchise signal-caller.
Paris Johnson Jr. is my number-one ranked offensive tackle among a crowded group at the top, but what sets him apart to some degree is the great length and fluid movement skills. Looking at the type of linemen Poles has brought in so far, those are areas that they highly value. Since Braxton Jones impressed as a fifth-round pick at left tackle last year, they can figure out if Paris can work on the right side, along with having experience at guard.
#10. Philadelphia Eagles – Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon
Closing out the top-ten are the reigning NFC champs – which is a wild thing to think about – after the Saints tried to shoot for the moon with their two first-round picks last year and handed Philly an abundance of draft capital.
I’ve heard people call this a “luxury pick” and seen Texas running back Bijan Robinson projected to go here (which I wouldn’t hate at all, because he’s my second overall prospect), but I don’t believe in that idea of free picks and this would be very different to how their GM Howie Roseman has approached the draft.
Instead, I believe he will continue to invest in high-value positions and take a prototype corner in Christian Gonzalez. I know they ended up bringing back Darius Slay and James Bradberry after it looked like both might be gone for a while, but they have outs in both those contracts in 2025 and if they want to move one of them inside or Avonte Maddox moves back to safety, that now leaves a starting spot in nickel personnel right away.
Gonzo is a natural at the position, with all the length, fluidity and speed you can hope for. Now you need to get “that dawg” out of him.
#11. Tennessee Titans – Broderick Jones, OT, Georgia
This is another pick that is very much in-line with what you see out there in mock drafts. To me, the move for the Titans all-along here was either Ohio State’s Paris Johnson or Georgia’s Broderick Jones. Johnson is off the board in this scenario and Jones’ violent mindset may be something that the coaching staff falls in love with more so anyway.
Cutting bait with the often-injured Taylor Lewan, you can now add this guy to the mix as you see what Nicolas Petit-Frere can develop into in year two (and/or if you can revive the career of a another former first-round pick in Andre Dillard, who they signed as a free agent).
Jones is the superior option to both of them, but because his punch timing and weight distribution do still need some work, I could also see Tennessee plug him inside at guard for year one. Especially if that gives them the best starting-five in hopes of getting back to playing smashmouth football on offense, to complement a defense capable of playing at a very high level, if healthy.
#12. Houston Texans – Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa
The Texans do ultimately go edge rusher and get somebody who may not be nearly as far along as Nick Bosa (who DeMeco Ryans had in San Francisco), but can also put offensive tackles on skates and is foaming at the mouth when ready to come off the ball.
The fact that Lukas Van Ness never actually started a game at Iowa due to the way they respect their seniors is well-known at this point, but he was still clearly the most talented and dominant player along the front.
He can be a top-tier run-stopper on day one, capable of locking out guards when needed, but also exploding into pullers. The pass-rush arsenal is still pretty limited because he relies so heavily on that power, but they have Jerry Hughes there to teach the young man a lot of tricks and he won’t even turn 22 until June.
#13. Pittsburgh Steelers – Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State (via GB)
It’s been a while – so let’s make another trade happen! This is a much smaller move, but I have the Pittsburgh Steelers going up a couple of spots with the Green Bay Packers in exchange for Pittsburgh's third-round pick (80th overall) to secure a guy that they’ve been linked to from the very start of this process.
Just the story of carrying on the legacy of Joey Porter Sr. is a really cool deal, but his son is a hell of a player himself and an infusion of young talent into the secondary that Pittsburgh absolutely needs.
They did lock up a one-plus-one deal basically with veteran CB Patrick Peterson, but by losing Cam Sutton in free agency and potentially wanting to move Levi Wallace into the slot, they have no other promising young corners on the roster.
Joey Porter Jr.’s insane length will be a great fit for the Steelers’ zone-based scheme, that relies on squeezing down passing windows, plus he has the potential to give them some more flexibility to play press-man against boundary receivers, along with a safety clouding deep.
#14. New England Patriots – Peter Skoronski, OT/G, Northwestern
Continuing our run on offensive linemen, Bill Belichick and company are salivating over the fact that arguably the best overall player along the front-five in this class has fallen to them here in Peter Skoronski.
If they want to move Trent Brown back to right tackle, they’ve shown they’re comfortable with guys having with shorter arms on the blindside after they drafted Isaiah Wynn four years ago (who is still currently on the open market). With his football IQ, Skoronski can probably move to the right side. If you feel like you can get more out of him on the interior, Michael Onwenu is on the final year of his contract and they have a potential out on David Andrews’ deal next offseason as well.
Skoronski’s ability to play with leverage, how proficient he is with latching his hands in the run game and the way he reads pass-rushers makes him a plug-and-play starter at multiple spots.
#15. New York Jets – Darnell Wright, OT, Tennessee
I’m sure the Jets would have loved for one of those true offensive tackles in Johnson Jr. or Jones to be available at this point. They may not have an issue having moved back a couple of spots now as part of the Aaron Rodgers trade and missing out on Northwestern’s Peters Skoronski, since they look at him being a better fit at guard (where they are definitely set with Laken Tomlinson and Alijah Vera-Tucker, returning from injury).
However, if Mekhi Becton is finally in the “best shape of his life” as we constantly hear and can return to the form he showed as a rookie, right tackle is the most important spot to secure anyway. That’s where Darnell Wright comes into play, who has played that spot at by far the highest level of anybody in this draft.
He’s so naturally powerful and in a system that doesn’t constantly throw RPOs or one side of the field is basically dead, we should see that shine even more. Most importantly, however, his track record against top-level SEC edge rushers like Alabama’s Will Anderson Jr. and LSU’s B.J. Ojulari is outstanding and he should be ready to be an excellent pass-protector from day one.
#16. Washington Commanders – Deonte Banks, CB, Maryland
The Commanders sitting here at 16th overall was a big reason I decided to project the Steelers moving up a couple of spots, because I would be worried Ron Rivera would snipe Porter Jr. from them (considering they have a bunch of young corners that haven’t really been able to establish themselves in the league yet). So I have them going after that position anyway and get a guy from their own backyard, looking at the nearby Terps.
Deonte Banks has been a major riser in this pre-draft process, as more people got to his tape, along with the elite numbers he put up at the combine – a 4.35 in the 40, a 42-inch vert and an 11’4” broad jump. He loves to crowd receivers at the line of scrimmage in press, but also displays excellent feel as a zone-defender, with room to improve his ability to locate and attack the ball in the air. I wouldn't be shocked if he ended up going in front of Porter either.
#17. Green Bay Packers – Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson (via PIT)
I’m sure a lot of people in Wisconsin would like their team to go with a skill-position player here and it would be pretty funny if they did, with Aaron Rodgers’ gone. Notre Dame tight-end Michael Mayer was certainly a consideration for me here. However, looking at how the organization has approached the draft, I just believe they’ll continue to invest in the trenches (and defensively that’s a more glaring area that could use some fresh blood).
Myles Murphy is the type of explosive, strong athlete they value on the edge, in the mold of another guy they targeted 12th overall in 2019 with Rashan Gary. With that guy coming off a torn ACL and entering his fifth-year option, along with having a potential out in Preston Smith’s contract next year, I think this makes a lot of sense.
Murphy is already an awesome, hyper-active run defender and if he learns how to maximize his power by not allowing tackles to get into his frame, he and Gary could end up being a frightening duo coming off either end of the line.
#18. Detroit Lions – Calijah Kancey, IDL, Pittsburgh
This is certainly a polarizing name in the draft community, between sticklers for certain benchmarks and those people who solely rely on the film. I understand the size concerns, but considering Lions GM Brad Holmes has seen Aaron Donald emerge as an all-time great defensive lineman, I don't think he can help but fall in love with another twitchy interior player wearing that Pitt uniform (even though he does have shorter arms and Donald wouldn’t be a fair comparison for anybody).
With that being said, Calijah Kancey does play like that bowling ball of butcher knives, constantly creating disruption in the run and pass game. If you allow him to just win the B-gap, he can be a real difference-maker for a Detroit defense that did certainly improve over the second half of last season, but still needs more guys to make big plays.
#19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Nolan Smith, EDGE, Georgia
Entering the post-Tom Brady world, there are a lot of questions around this Bucs team. Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask are currently battling for the starting quarterback job, Devin White recently requested a trade and a bunch of veterans still on the roster who they may be willing to move on from. So I have them selecting just a really good football player at a position they certainly value.
Nolan Smith blew up the combine when he ran a 4.39 at 238 pounds, and I could see him going anywhere from pick eight on really. I don’t believe he’ll ever be a top-tier pass-rusher because he lacks some length and a real power element to utilize the momentum he’s built with the burst off the ball. But he’s a hard-nosed run defender and can be an asset dropping into coverage.
He will be a great leader for an organization that is somewhat in transition. With Shaq Barrett tearing his achilles mid-way through last season, they’d need Smith to emerge as a starter right away.
#20. Seattle Seahawks – Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State
Unless the Seahawks are hell-bent on taking another corner here – which they have some ammo to move up a few spots, if necessary – this is kind of dream scenario for them. They already have Will Anderson in the bag and now they get the number three receiver they’ve been looking to find alongside D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has emerged as the favorite for WR1 after some anonymous reports got people off him for no legitimate reason a couple of months ago. He doesn’t have the long speed to be a consistent threat to the deep levels of the field, but his ability to manipulate defenders as a route-runner, the quickness in his cuts, the way he instantly gets upfield and that extra gear he can access once the ball is in his hands are all special.
In Seattle, he can primarily operate out of the slot and you get some inside-out versatility swapping him and Lockett at times. This could be an explosive offense orchestrated by Geno Smith.
#21. Los Angeles Chargers – Dalton Kincaid, TE, Utah
I knew that I was going with offense here. The question was really between three skill-position players – Texas running back Bijan Robinson, Boston College wide receiver Zay Flowers and the name I ultimately settled on: Utah tight-end Dalton Kincaid.
What made the difference for me here is putting myself in the mindset of that LA Chargers organization and the thought of having to face Travis Kelce twice a year. I wouldn’t go so far as to compare the two at this stage of course, but Kincaid has a lot of similar qualities (in terms of the loose hips to cleanly get in and out of transitions, the ability to find open space, how there’s no delay becoming a ball-carrier and always seems to get more after the catch than he should because he dips away from contact, along with having the willingness to go through people in his way).
While he may need to add a few pounds, this could be a deluxe version of Dalton Schultz for new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore.
#22. Baltimore Ravens – Zay Flowers, WR, Boston College
This is a connection I’ve made all along and I just mentioned him. Zay Flowers could be exactly what this newly-led Todd Monken passing attack still needs. Of course, the whole Lamar Jackson situation still needs to be figured out, but you add this kid to Rashod Bateman, Odell Beckham Jr. and Mark Andrews – time to let it rip, baby!
I really believe Zay is the most complete receiver in this class, not in terms of having great size, but he can play inside and out, he can win on all three levels, he can run by safeties down the field and show great concentration tracking the deep ball. He can also take shallow crossers all the way to the opposite sideline and run away from the pursuit.
He constantly cleared out space by pushing vertically at BC, but he’s also an electric mover with the ball in his hands. I absolutely love the idea of how he can help take this aerial attack to a new level.
#23. Buffalo Bills – Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas (via MIN)
We have another trade! The third name from that trio I mentioned a minute ago is still available and guess who’s still looking for a true game-changer at the running back position? I have the Buffalo Bills moving up four spots with the Vikings in exchange for their fourth-round pick and taking Bijan Robinson.
They did invest a second-round pick in James Cook last year, but I don’t think that withholds you from getting a true star here. The second-year guy you have there was at his best as a number two at Georgia anyway, where he could maximize those limited touches, while you can be in a lot more 21 “pony” personnel, because either one of your backs is totally comfortable in being split out as a receiver.
Bijan can alter tempo and manipulate second-level defenders with more of a focus on gap-scheme runs in Buffalo, he can create magic when nothing is there and he’s such a natural pass-catcher. Especially with Josh Allen saying a couple of days ago how “he’s getting older” and may need to “adapt his playing style”, this is the time to make a move like this, to take pressure off him as their top ball-carrier and somebody who can make more out of those check-downs than Devin Singletary did.
#24. Jacksonville Jaguars – Brian Branch, SAF, Alabama
We get to another very popular pick in mock drafts – which has me more and more concerned about how many of these selections will actually materialize – but I think Brian Branch would be a great fit in Jacksonville.
I could see him ultimately slip out of the first round if the NFL largely sees him as a pure nickel, but that’s exactly where the Jags could use the biggest upgrade. Their defense was significantly better when they could put Darious Williams outside and while they have a couple of combo-safeties capable of dropping down into the slot, Branch would give them a lot of flexibility on the back-end.
There’s no wasted movement with the way Branch anticipates and redirects against breaks, he shows plus awareness for route patterns as a zone defender, he’s got great timing and wiggle as a blitzer and he’s an elite tackler (missing only four of 176 career attempts - 2.3%). If they don’t put him on island consistently, where his deep speed is being tested, he should be one heck of an addition to that unit.
#25. Kansas City Chiefs – Anton Harrison, OT, Oklahoma (via NYG)
This brings us to our final trade of this mock draft. Looking at Joe Schoen’s first draft as GM of the Giants last year, he traded back in the second and fourth round, and I don’t see a player here that I’m convinced he feels that definitely won’t be available at 31.
So I have the reigning champs moving up six spots in exchange for the earlier of their two fourth-round picks (122nd overall), and securing the book-ends of their offensive line. Anton Harrison was part of another RPO-heavy offense at Oklahoma and probably replaces a former Sooner in Orlando Brown Jr. on the blindside, allowing them to keep recently-signed Jawaan Taylor on the right edge.
Harrison has that ability to create lateral displacement on B-gap defenders to allow those athletic interior guys to pull around, he shows light feet and has several impressive moments of recovering in pass-pro. Now it’ll be up learning how to play with a little more sink in his hips and how to re-fit his hands accordingly.
#26. Dallas Cowboys – Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame
I could have easily gone defensive line here. That’s an area the Cowboys are looking to invest early on nearly every year and they will be looking for a shade nose-tackle some time on day two for sure (considering that’s the most important piece to add if they want to compete for the NFC with the Eagles and 49ers).
However, I don’t see Jerry Jones and company passing up on a player at a position of need, from one of the big-time programs. Michael Mayer has been the best tight-end in the country not named Brock Bowers (who might be a top-ten pick next year out of Georgia) over the past two seasons.
He’s been losing some shine throughout this process, because he didn’t test particularly well and I don’t think has the explosive profile to be a big-time separator, but he has the frame and want to become a great blocker. Even if he doesn’t actually break free, he constantly comes up with catches through contact and becomes a locomotive with the ball in his hands.
They may be okay with Jake Ferguson replacing Dalton Schultz, but they ran a bunch of 12 personnel under their old OC because it was their most effective set.
#27. Minnesota Vikings – Jordan Addison, WR, USC (via BUF)
After trading back four spots, I think the Vikings still get a player that could be very productive for them next to Justin Jefferson. Jordan Addison is held in high regards by people who really study and understand the wide receiver position, because right now he’s the best pure route-runner in this class.
His player profile changed a little bit, since he was more so looked at this multi-faceted weapon at Pitt, who they funneled touches towards. However, I think it’s actually encouraging to see him win without having that fabricated workload, but rather get open within the structure of your passing attack.
Running at 4.49 at just 173 pounds was rather underwhelming, but he gets up to that top speed quickly and doesn’t lose much of it, as he works in trigger-steps and head-nods to get defenders turned the wrong way. You combine that with a 49% career contested catch rate and I believe he can be an exceptional number two to JJ.
#28. Cincinnati Bengals – Adetomiwa Adebawore, EDGE/IDL, Northwestern
This group could be in the market for a right tackle, considering La’el Collins most likely won’t be available early in the year and the displeasure Jonah Williams has expressed with the franchise.
However, unless they feel like Ohio State’s Dawand Jones in combination with Orlando Brown Jr. now on the left side would widen the corners so much for edge rushers that it doesn’t matter that they aren’t the lightest of foot, that’s not a direction I see them going in this case. Instead, I have them looking at the defensive line and another player with inside-out versatility.
Adetomiwa Adebawore actually played a lot more six-technique strong-side defensive end in the Wildcats’ four-down front in 2021, before splitting time pretty evenly between that role and three-technique last year. He has the strength to stack and shed solo-blockers with 34-inch arms despite only being 6’2”, but his get-off and ability to corner his rushes has become so much better. Plus the quick-twitch and flexibility makes this guy a nightmare to take over on stunts, which DC Lou Anarumo loves to run.
I had Clemson’s Bryan Bresee here first and it’s sort of a toss-up, but considering Adebawore tested slightly better across the board than last year’s first overall pick Travon Walker, despite packing an extra ten pounds, I just don’t see him falling out of the first round.
#29. New Orleans Saints – Keion White, EDGE, Georgia Tech
Another fit I have really liked since I got to his tape in preparation for the Senior Bowl is Keion White going to the Saints. A tight-end like Darnell Washington from Georgia could make a lot of sense here as well, but this guy fits the mold of what they’re typically looking for, in terms of an overside D-end with some flexibility to slide inside in passing situations.
White isn’t a perfect player at this point by any means, not showing the greatest recognition/awareness for run schemes, still needing to work on his hand-placement and rushing the passer with more of a plan.
With that being said, the speed this young man moves at for being around 280 pounds, the flexibility and balance to get banged around and somehow work around blockers and the flashes he had at Georgia Tech are pretty crazy. He’ll already turn 25 in January, but he's only played in 16 games over the last three years.
Since New Orleans lost David Onyemata and Marcus Davenport in free agency, while their first-round pick at D-end from a couple of years ago in Payton Turner has only combined for just over 300 snaps so far, I think they’re ready to go after that position again.
#30. Philadelphia Eagles – Will McDonald IV, EDGE, Iowa State
We’ll continue our run on defensive linemen here with the Eagles making their own first-round selection and a player that may remind some people of the guy they signed to a big contract a year ago in Haason Reddick.
Will McDonald played out of position for the majority of his career with the Cyclones, heavily lining up at 4i- and five-technique. He wasn’t allowed to attack up the field a whole lot and you saw some bad moments of getting move around on double-teams and angular blocks in the run game. However, the fact that he was still able to rack up 127 pressures across 862 pass-rush snaps in his career is pretty remarkable.
Considering Derek Barnett and Brandon Graham are in the final years of their contracts and Josh Sweat has just one more after that left on his deal, I think this is a smart move looking ahead to how they’ll need to navigate around the newly-signed Jalen Hurts mega-contract, whilst McDonald fills out his frame.
#31 New York Giants – John Michael Schmitz, IOL, Minnesota (via KC)
With the final selection of this first round, I have the Giants going back to the well and continuing to fill out the offensive line. With hopes of last year’s seventh overall pick Evan Neal having a similar transformation as Andrew Thomas on the opposite end of the line and some options between veterans and young guys at guard, they probably feel pretty good about that unit. However, they don’t have a single trained center on the roster right now.
Even though I really like Wisconsin’s Joe Tippman as more of an athletic alternative, John Michael Schmitz is the best guy available in this draft. His ability to latch his hands and keep riding defenders down the line in the zone run game, the power to dig A-gap defenders off their landmarks on combos and how he typically doesn’t let interior rushers go anymore once he gets his paws inside their chest, makes him a plug-and-play starter for the G-Men.
#32. Pittsburgh Steelers – Bryan Bresee, IDL, Clemson
Since I mentioned him a couple of paragraphs ago and didn’t want to leave him out, give me Bryan Bresee going to Pittsburgh at pick 32. Pittsburgh did just re-sign Larry Ogunjobi and drafted DeMarvin Leal in the third round last year, but beyond that, they look rather thin on the D-line (and Cam Heyward turns 34 years old a couple of days from now).
Bresee can play that five-technique role Stephon Tuitt filled so brilliantly for many years, with the length to two-gap, but has also become so much better at reducing his surface area and creating negative plays in the run game.
He lined up anywhere from one- all the way out to six-technique for Clemson. He’ll probably be moved around a lot on passing downs and be asked to set up games with his natural force to create softer angles for his fellow rushers.
While he didn’t quite live up to the status of a former number one overall recruit, seeing him test as well as he did at the combine and now finally being in a mental and physical state necessary to excel, there’s reason to believe his best days are certainly ahead of him. He feels very much like a Steeler.
Deserving first round mentions
Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU
I couldn’t quite sneak him in. Obviously Johnston is an incredible talent in terms of long speed, change-of-direction for that size and what he can do after the catch, but I’m concerned with how little success he’s had at utilizing that size and winning in contested situations (as well as his hands altogether). I think he may go at pick 33 to the nearby Texans as a weapon for their new QB.
O’Cyrus Torrence, IOL, Florida
My top-ranked guard in this year’s class. I was really going back and forth between Will McDonald and him as the pick for Philly at 30 (who just lost Isaac Seumalo in free agency and Torrence is a guy that could remind them of Brandon Brooks, which is who I saw when watching his tape, as a bruising people-mover in the run game and a wall to get around in protection).
Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina
Cam Smith would’ve been my next-highest ranked corner. The Vikings and Bengals were considerations, as well as potentially the Eagles if they hadn’t gone corner at tenth overall. There are some worries about not having the high-end athletic traits and a tendency of getting grabby because of that.
To me, Smith is a play-maker at the position, capable of riding receivers into the boundary and shutting down runs to the edge, but some teams may see him playing more inside or even as a safety.
Hendon Hooker, QB, Tennessee
There was some buzz around Hooker going in the first round. That has cooled off to some degree, but he seems to be the clear QB5 for many teams. I won’t rule out somebody like the Seahawks or Titans trading back up into the late first for him.
With how little what he did at Tennessee translates to the NFL, the instincts to become a runner rather than play-extender to potentially counterbalance that to some degree as he learns early on, him already being 25 years old and coming off the torn ACL – I just couldn’t do it.
Teams without a first-round draft pick
#36. Los Angeles Rams – Steve Avila, IOL, TCU
The LA Rams need a bunch of stuff, looking at how much they’ve tried to cut corners on that roster, now that they’re transitioning into a re-modeling phase. I posted their depth chart on defense a couple of days ago and asked if this group holds anybody under 30 points, unless Aaron Donald doesn’t absolutely go berserk.
The fact that Sean McVay decided to come back and how much they’ve tried to keep the offense intact for the most part, has me believing that the goal is more him to still be able to put out a functional offense, and the biggest issues last season were the left side of the O-line in particular.
Steve Avila gives them the flexibility to play all three spots along the interior, is a great fit for a zone- and duo-based rushing attack and has an incredibly strong anchor to maintain a firm middle of the pocket.
#51. Miami Dolphins – Tucker Kraft, TE, South Dakota State
Georgia’s Darnell Washington was my first instinct here, but looking at the teams slated to pick in front of Miami – the Packers, Commanders, Lions and others – I have a tough time believing that guy will still be on the board at this point.
With that being said, I don’t see a massive gap between him and Tucker Kraft, who I have as TE4 and five respectively. Mike McDaniel and company couldn’t wait to get rid of Mike Gesicki this offseason because he wasn’t a fit at all for their offense.
Kraft makes a lot of sense in terms of being able to come across the formation for kick-outs and wrap-arounds. Then there's his body-control and ability to snatch up smaller bodies in space and what he can provide after the catch, rumbling through tackles after building up momentum and using his off-arm to keep defenders away from his lower body. He could be McDaniel’s slightly slower and rawer version of George Kittle.
#67. & #68. Denver Broncos – Daiyan Henley, LB, Washington State & Jordan Battle, SAF, Alabama
Sean Payton has already attacked the offensive line in a major way and if he can get Russ back to competence at least, this should be a pretty good unit. The defense was 1 of the best last year until the dam broke late, due to having to do all the heavy lifting, but as they transition from Ejiro Evero to Vance Joseph at defensive coordinator, they need to add some more pieces for that scheme to work.
First, they have already made the investment into Josey Jewell as their more traditional MIKE linebacker. Now, with Daiyan Henley – who I think should go earlier, but this is where he’s currently projected based on consensus boards – you have this clean-up player and coverage asset, with speed to shut things down on the perimeter with how aggressive that defense typically likes to get.
Kareem Jackson is currently still on the open market. He could still return, but his missed-tackle rate and passer rating allowed has increased each of the last two years and Jordan Battle is somebody with experience playing all over the Bama defense (with over 3000 career snaps being assigned every coverage responsibility in the book pretty much). The way he sees plays from the back-end and his tackling skills in space would be a great addition for Denver.
#98. Cleveland Browns – Zach Harrison, EDGE, Ohio State
Their biggest splash signing this offseason was a nose-tackle in Dalvin Tomlinson, who they paid just over 16 million per year. That was by far the biggest hole they needed to fill given how much they got pushed around in the run game without a true nose on the roster. So why not continue adding to that early-down defense?
Zach Harrison has insanely long arms, with an 87-inch wingspan, which allows him to lock out and keep vision on the backfield as a base defensive end. I’m not as high on him as some other people, because he can kind of run hot and cold, along with not having a real plan as a pass-rusher yet.
But you have to get to third down first, where then that secondary full of high draft picks and Myles Garrett up front can really shine. And Cleveland already signed Ogbo Okoronkwo in free agency, to be that high element who can win the corner with speed as you layer your pass-rush.
#99. San Francisco 49ers – Jammie Robinson, SAF, Florida State
And this is not just a play on words, but I love that it turned out this way. Because to me, losing Jimmie Ward, who former 49ers DC and now Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans brought along with him to Houston, you have the ability to replace him now with a very similar player profile.
'm not saying Jammie Robinson is as good Ward at this stage, but his ability to rocket up the alley in the run game, the elite tackling skills in space and being able to put him in the slot when needed – which is where the Niners put Ward for the majority of last season – it’s very reminiscent of that skill-set.
Once again, I believe the FSU standout should go earlier, but considering Robinson is more so an average athlete for the position and has sub-30-inch arms, this scenario is very much on the table, I would think.
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