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The MVP award is an award that any player in any sport would love to win. To be the most valuable player in the whole league is a huge accomplishment. The award has historically been dominated by the Quarterbacks, including 10 of the last 11 seasons. The only player in that time span to win the award, who didn’t play at QB, was Adrian Peterson, after an incredible 2012 season. Over the past 5 seasons, 5 different QBs have won the prestigious award. Those QBs are Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Cam Newton, Matt Ryan and Tom Brady. Here I take a look at the players who are in the running to win this seasons MVP, at this early stage.
5. David Johnson
Too many people are sleeping on David Johnson in 2018. DJ lost the whole 2017 season to a broken wrist in week 1. His loss was a brutal blow to the Cardinals offense and team as a whole. It was a freak injury that is unlikely to reoccur. So, let’s just wipe 2017 from our minds and take a look at his previous season in the league.
In 2016, Johnson recorded 1239 rushing yards and 16 TDs, as well as catching 80 passes for 879 yards and a further 4 TDs. That is a huge return for any player, and even outshines the performances of Todd Gurley and Leveon Bell last season. Gurley was in the MVP talk last year, so if DJ was to replicate his 2016 form, then there is no reason as to why he can’t be in the same conversation.
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The Cardinals offense is going to be different this year round though because Carson Palmer has retired, and either Sam Bradford or Josh Rosen will be starting under center. Both QBs are going to lean on Johnson and he is going to get a lot of volume.
His goal is to get over 1000 rushing yards, as well as 1000 receiving yards. If he achieves that feat, then he could well be in the running for MVP.
#4 Drew Brees
Brees had a very successful season last year for the Saints. The team changed the offensive emphasis by utilizing a run-first approach. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram both had fantastic seasons, and this relieved some of the pressure on the 39-year-old Brees. He had 536 attempts, which is his lowest in a 16 game season since he joined the Saints in 2006.
It was also his lowest YPG (Yards Per Game) total over the same time period. He did complete 72% of his passes, which marked a career high. I can see opposing teams focusing more on stopping the run, which should open up the passing game even more for the highly talented Brees. I think Brees will improve on his 23TDs thrown in 2017.
The Saints have assembled a talented young squad which could go all of the way in 2018. They now have a solid defense, to go with their talented offense. Brees could lead the Saints on charge, all the way to the Super Bowl.
#3 Carson Wentz
Carson Wentz was putting together a stunning 2017 season, until a torn ACL ended his season early. Wentz was firmly in the running for league MVP until that week 14 injury against the Rams. He threw for 3296 yards, with an incredible 33 TDs and 7 INTs. If he can replicate that sort of form, then he will easily be in with a chance of earning MVP honours.
The Eagles, fresh off of the back of their Super Bowl win, have a great all round team, with no real weaknesses. There has been talk of Wentz having to adapt his elusive style of play, to more of that of a pocket passer. That is a rumour that Wentz has been quick to dismiss, whilst stepping up his rehab from injury.
The Philadelphia faithful are hopeful to have their star QB available for their week one matchup against the Falcons. There is likely to be some regression from Wentz this season as his TD rate was phenomenal in 2017. That being said, if he can get healthy and play 15/16 games, then I expect the Eagles to go deep in to the playoffs again.
#2 Tom Brady
You can’t compile a list of potential MVP candidates without mentioning TB12. Brady has won the MVP award 3 times in his career, as well as 5 Super Bowls and 13 Pro Bowl honors. No matter how many people are hoping the Patriots fail and are calling for their demise, my money is on the Patriots being there or there about when the Super Bowl comes around.
Brady won the MVP award in 2017, after another incredible season. He led the league with 4577 passing yards despite having his favorite WR, Julian Edelman, out for the season. He threw for 32 TDs and just 8 INTS, with a QB rating of 102.8. Despite now being 40 years of age, Brady is showing no signs of slowing up. He led the Patriots to another Super Bowl appearance in 2017 and was only denied another ring by an inspired Eagles team.
The Patriots are by far and away the favorite to win the AFC East for a record 10th time in a row. The Bills, Dolphins and Jets are little threat for Brady and the Pats, and you’d fully expect them to win their 6 divisional match ups. I expect the Patriots to win 12 games again this season, with Tom Brady leading the way.
#1 Aaron Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is the clear favorite with the bookies at the moment, to win the 2018 MVP award. Rodgers is looking to make a comeback after his 2017 season was ended by a broken collarbone, at the hands of arch-rivals, the Minnesota Vikings. Rodgers is one of the best QBs to have ever played the game, and when he is playing, the Packers have a chance to make the SuperBowl.
With Rodgers on the sideline last season, the Packers showed they are a much weaker team. Rodgers has a high powered offense at his disposal, despite the loss of Jordy Nelson this offseason. He has Davante Adams and Randall Cobb, as well as a new acquisition at Tight End in Jimmy Graham. The Packers also have 3 good Running Backs to help ease the pressure on Rodgers.
Rodgers is usually a lock for 35-40 TDs a season, as well as throwing just 5-8 interceptions. He is also usually good for at least 530 passing attempts and over 4000 yards. His ability to make accurate passes on the run as well as in the pocket, make him the hardest QB to play against in the league. If Rodgers can lead the Packers to an 11+ win season, then it is highly likely that he walks away with the MVP award for the 3rd time in his career.
