Australian Open 2013: Men's QF Preview

For the past few years, men’s tennis has mostly been about the Big Four and this trend has continued at the Australian Open. Second seeded Roger Federer and third seeded Andy Murray have yet to drop a set in the tournament while world no. 1 Novak Djokovic has already been part of an epic five-set thriller. And in the absence of Rafael Nadal, David Ferrer has been quietly going about his business. With the four still alive in Melbourne, we have an exciting weekend of tennis ahead of us. For now, let’s preview the quarter-finals which take place over Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday’s matches

David Ferrer (4) vs. Nicolas Almagro (10) – Ferrer leads 12-0

Even without Rafael Nadal, Spain is guaranteed to have one semi-finalist in the men’s singles event at Melbourne. The problem is whoever wins between 4^th seeded David Ferrer and 10^th seeded Nicolas Almagro, neither is likely to be a threat for the title. Ferrer has been one of the most invisible players in the top 5 and the same can be said when it comes to Almagro in the top 10. Almagro has not beaten Ferrer in twelve previous meetings and nothing suggests that he will be able to do so tomorrow. Almagro has his best results on the clay courts while Ferrer seems to have his best results on the hardcourts. The two Spaniards play a similar style but Ferrer seems to do everything just a little better than Almagro – that’s probably the reason for the difference in their career graphs. Ferrer should win this and while he won’t stand a chance against Djokovic in the semi-finals, it could be interesting to watch him take on Tomas Berdych for a place in the finals.

Prediction – Ferrer wins in four sets

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Tomas Berdych(5) – Djokovic leads 11-1

Last year, Djokovic played a five-set thriller against Murray in the semi-finals here in Melbourne and then played an even more physical and thrilling final against Rafael Nadal two days later. For many, the Djokovic-Wawrinka clash on Sunday has been described as the match of the tournament. Once again, the Serb will need to bring his best to the court just two days later. It would be interesting to see how much gas the Serb has left in his tank. Though Wawrinka did go down eventually, the one thing that the Swiss did show the field is that if you go for your shots, even Djokovic can become vulnerable. Tomas Berdych has all the tools and the shots in his arsenal and has been playing well this fortnight – the Czech is yet to drop a set in four matches. Berdych has beaten the Serb only once in 12 career meetings and lost nine in a row to Djokovic. Those statistics don’t bode well for Berdych, especially given that his glaring weakness is his lack of mental toughness. The Czech would need Djokovic to be below full fitness on Tuesday if he wants to reach his second consecutive Grand Slam semi-final.

Prediction – Djokovic wins in four sets

Wednesday’s Matches

Andy Murray (3) vs. Jeremy Chardy –Murray leads 4-1

With the Grand Slam monkey off his back, Andy Murray has proven that he belongs in the Big Four. Murray has been winning more consistently since his Grand Slam breakthrough – event at the regular ATP events. The Scot has not lost a set in four matches this fortnight and should be the overwhelming favourite against the unseeded Frenchman Jeremy Chardy. Chardy is a 25-year-old, ranked no. 36 in the world and will be playing his first Grand Slam quarter-final. The Frenchman was ranked outside the top 100 just 12 months ago and will move past his earlier best ranking of no. 30 next week. The Frenchman has a dangerous forehand and although he did beat Murray in their most recent encounter in Cincinnati last August, Murray should have too much game and experience to let an opportunity to play Federer in the semi-finals slip by.

Prediction – Murray wins in four sets

Roger Federer (2) vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga (7) Federer leads 8-3

Roger Federer was supposed to have the toughest section in the draw but the second seeded Swiss player has beaten Davydenko, Tomic and now Raonic, all without dropping a set. Now comes the dangerous Frenchman Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. Tsonga has beaten Federer in three of their eleven previous meetings, including that one at Wimbledon which stung Federer more than his losses normally do. Tsonga always seems to play well in Melbourne – this is the fourth time he is through to the last eight and he has been to the finals here. With a new coach, Roger Rasheed, on his team, Tsonga is working hard on the one aspect that his game has been lacking – mental toughness. Tsonga’s go-for-broke style thrills fans and makes tennis matches exciting to watch. But the Frenchman would be more successful if he manages to play the percentages better. Rasheed has been working with Tsonga on this aspect but it may be too soon to see the results yet, especially against a fit and fresh Federer.

Prediction – Federer to win in straight sets