Is Novak Djokovic's third-round exit in Indian Wells a worrying sign for him?

World No. 1 and five-time champion Novak Djokovic lost to unfancied Italian Luca Nardi 4-6 6-3 3-6 in the third round of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells last Monday, March 11.

It was one of the biggest upsets in the history of the tournament and also the Serb’s second defeat in his last three matches. Nardi entered the main draw in Indian Wells as a lucky loser and registered the biggest win of his career so far to move on to the fourth round.

It will still probably be a bit premature to ring the alarm bell, but the signs are not very good for the 24-time Grand Slam Champion, nine of whose last 13 losses have come against players born in the 2000s. That means that he has started looking a bit vulnerable against younger players, which is also quite natural at his age.

Novak Djokovic’s last two losses came against contrasting opponents:

However, if one takes a closer look, one will see that Djokovic’s last two defeats came against players with contrasting styles of play. While Jannik Sinner literally blasted him off the court in the first two sets of the Australian Open, winning them 6-1 and 6-2, respectively, Nardi was a lot more patient in his approach.

In Nardi, Djokovic came up against a player, who was willing to construct points and not take too many risks, just like the Serb himself is. Nardi played slices and drop shots extensively and was also the better player at the net on the day.

In fact, the clash between the two on a slow hard court in Indian Wells resembled a typical match played on a clay court, with both of them adopting a cautious approach. Moreover, Nardi’s ability to play his down-the-line backhand well also kept taking the Serb by surprise.

There was a common factor in Djokovic’s two losses against the two Italian opponents. Both Sinner and Nardi had 11 break point opportunities and manged to exploit the Serb’s second serve really well. Djokovic won only 43% and 52% of the points on his second serve against Nardi and Sinner, respectively. The Serb’s future opponents might take cue from it and try to follow suit.

Is this a worrying sign for the Serb?

However, one should avoid jumping into conclusions too soon. It has to be remembered that Djokovic last won the Indian Wells tournament in 2016 and a defeat there should not weigh too heavily on his mind.

A loss at the Australian Open, his favourite tournament, was definitely much more unexpected and serious from his viewpoint. At this stage of his career, the Serb should probably only focus on adding to his Grand Slam tally and thereby take himself beyond everybody else’s reach.

The improvement in the Serb’s serve has been one of the reasons behind the resurgence in his career during the last few years and hence, he should be worried about his second serve. He should probably work more on it and try to fine-tune it a bit.

Still, it is difficult to find any youngster in world tennis at the moment aside from Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, who have an all-round game to trouble Djokovic consistently. The Serb will also continue to be one of the favourites at Wimbledon, as not many others are comfortable playing on grass. Hence, the Serb should be able to have a good run at the top for at least another year.