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Match Details
Fixture: (1) Jasmine Paolini vs (2) Elise Mertens
Date: October 22, 2023
Tournament: Jasmin Open 2023
Round: Final
Venue: Monastir, Tunisia
Category: WTA 250
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $259,303
Live telecast: USA - Tennis Channel | UK - Amazon Prime
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens preview
Top seed Jasmine Paolini will square off against defending champion Elise Mertens in the final of the 2023 Jasmin Open on Sunday.
Paolini knocked out Alize Cornet, Petra Marcinko, and Lucia Bronzetti to set up a semifinal showdown against Lesia Tsurenko. After five straight breaks of serve in the first set, the Italian gained the upper hand to lead 5-2. She then broke her opponent's serve once again to clinch the set.
Paolini rallied from a break down in the second set to level the score, but got broken once again to trail 4-3. She later saved five set points, but Tsurenko managed to claim the set in the end.
Paolini raced to a 5-0 lead in the third set, but stumbled while trying to close out the match on her first try. Tsurenko grabbed the next two games, but Italian then broke her opponent's serve one last time to win 6-2, 4-6, 6-2.
Mertens, on the other hand, kicked off her title defense with wins over Alex Eala, Iryna Shymanovich, and Mai Hontama to reach the last four, where Clara Burel awaited her. The defending champion lost her serve once in the opening set, but still surged ahead to go 5-1 up.
Mertens served for the set at this point, but Burel broke back to keep herself in contention. The former then secured another break of serve to claim the set. The Belgian dropped just one game in the second set to win the match 6-2, 6-1.
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens head-to-head
Mertens leads Paolini 3-1 in the head-to-head. The Belgian won their previous encounter at the 2022 Qatar Open in three sets.
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens odds
(Odds are sourced from BetMGM)
Jasmine Paolini vs Elise Mertens prediction
Paolini was tested by Tsurenko in the last round, but managed to get over the finish line. She dropped her serve five times but did save 19 of the 24 break points that she faced. Her serve wasn't as effective at times, but she did make up for it by being effective on return, ultimately going 8/17 on break points.
Mertens has made her way through the draw with relative ease and hasn't dropped a set so far. She has now reached her first final in singles since clinching the title here last year.
Paolini clinched the doubles title here alongside compatriot Sara Errani on Saturday. She'll now be aiming to complete the sweep by laying her hands on the singles trophy too.
Their rivalry has been quite competitive, with their last three matches going to the final set. Mertens has the edge in this match-up as she's a tad bit more consistent than the Italian.
However, Paolini has improved considerably since their last contest. She has played some inspired tennis this year and made her way up the rankings. If she finds herself embroiled in another slugfest against Mertens, she could come out on top this time.
Pick: Jasmine Paolini to win in three sets.
