US Open men's quarterfinals preview: Part 2

With the completion of Round 1 of the men’s quarterfinals at the US Open, we have our first genuinely big casualty of the tournament (yes, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga was upset in the second round, but until proven otherwise, significant stories in men’s tennis start and end with the Big 4). Roger Federer was upended by a big-serving, big-hitting Tomas Berdych in a dramatic night match yesterday, and all of a sudden the tournament feels a little more free-for-all than it did before. On that note, let’s take a look at the two remaining quarterfinal matches that are scheduled for today:

Quarterfinal 3: Janko Tipsarevic vs David Ferrer

Head-to-head: Ferrer leads 2-1

For a quarterfinal consisting of two players who actually made their seed, this couldn’t have been a more unglamorous matchup. Nobody really seems to notice when Ferrer and Tipsarevic win their matches; when either of them reaches a quarterfinal or semifinal, people are more likely to react with a “how did that happen?” than with a “he’s played really well this tournament and deserves to be there!” Fortunately, we have the magic of match replays and highlights clips to tell us just how strongly Ferrer and Tipsarevic deserve their share of the limelight. When you see them putting it all out there on the court, grinding out wins over their more powerful opponents, you know that there’s nothing lucky about these two workhorses reaching a Slam quarterfinal.

Ferrer and Tipsarevic have similar playing styles in that they both rely on their counter-punching skills to feed off the opponent’s pace and turn defense into offense. Tipsarevic has a marginally better serve and hits a flatter ball, while Ferrer has slightly more solid groundstrokes and substantially better wheels. Does the matchup favor either player more than the other? It’s hard to tell from afar, and the fact that they’ve only met in three matches previously (the last of which happened in 2008) doesn’t make the task any easier. Still, Ferrer has had an easier road to the quarters, has more big-match experience, and when stripped down to the bare essentials, is a better player than Tipsarevic. Of course, ‘being a better player’ has never been a guarantee for success, specially not in tennis, but let’s put that aside for the moment, shall we?

Prediction: Ferrer in 4 sets

Quarterfinal 4: Novak Djokovic vs Juan Martin Del Potro

Head-to-head: Djokovic leads 5-2

As high-octane a matchup as the Ferrer-Tipsarevic match is unglamorous, this match is the marquee contest of the day, and has rightly been scheduled for the night session in Arthur Ashe stadium. Djokovic is the defending champion, Del Potro is the 2009 champion (and the player who sent Andy Roddick into early retirement), and the hardcourt expertise of both players is guaranteed to produce an epic thriller for the ages.

Or is it? Del Potro hasn’t looked entirely convincing in any of his first four matches here, and in his match against Roddick he was positively tentative in the first two sets. We’ve been waiting a long time for Del Potro to regain his pre-wrist surgery form, and while the Argentine has done a good job of reaching the second week of a few Slams, he simply hasn’t rediscovered his big match mojo yet. Djokovic, on the other hand, has been looking as clinical as ever; his domination of Stanislas Wawrinka yesterday was so thorough that it forced Wawrinka to withdraw from the contest (the official reason for Wawrinka’s retirement was an injury, but can we assume the more dramatic explanation for a moment?). Djokovic had replaced Federer as the tournament favorite in most people’s minds even before the Swiss lost to Berdych, and it’s hard to find a loophole in his game right now.

That said, Del Potro has won a match against Djokovic recently (at the London Olympics), and when he gets on a roll, there’s still very little anyone can do to diffuse his flat baseline strikes. A lot will ride on Del Potro’s serve; if he can win a decent amount of free points by mixing up his delivery (a near-impossible task, considering how brilliant Djokovic is with the return), he can put pressure on Djokovic’s service games. Of course, Del Potro will also have to hit his forehand with depth and penetration without giving away too many errors, and he’ll have to attack the net at every opportunity that he gets. Even if he does all of that, though, it’s hard to imagine how long he can keep hitting past the supernatural defense of Djokovic.

Prediction: Djokovic in 4 sets