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Pope Francis, the head of the Catholic Church, died on April 21, 2025, and the effects could be seen in the prediction markets. For context, the Pope's demise requires the Cardinals to vote and elect the next individual for the papal position. Polymarket, a Cryptocurrency-based prediction market, reportedly witnessed users betting on whether the new Pope would be elected in 2025.
According to gamblingnews.com, by Monday, people had already gotten more than a million dollars, claiming that they didn't think there would be a new pope coming this year. Pope Francis' demise reportedly altered the market, suggesting that the users might be losing their wagers.
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There reportedly have been bets about who the next Pope will be, and Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin was the one leading. According to the outlet, the odds suggested a 36% chance that Cardinal Parolin would become the new Pope. Bets about whether the next Pope would be Black have also taken place.
The bets surrounding the upcoming Pope have garnered reactions from netizens on social media platforms. Many noted that such bets should not have existed in the first place. A user (@0xCryptoWizzy) tweeted:
"Betting on everything these days."
Many others shared similar reactions of disapproval.
"They allow bets for anything fr," one wrote.
"Madness at this point," read a tweet.
"This is so weird," wrote a netizen.
Many other netizens also shared the same point of view, with one wondering what was going on.
"What in the name of Rome is going on?" one asked.
"People will do anything for money," read a tweet.
"Y’all be betting on everything, " commented a user.
News about betting on the Cardinals for being the next Pope began when Pope Francis was battling his health concerns
While news has recently emerged about people placing bets on who will succeed Pope Francis, it's worth noting that such betting reportedly began as early as February. According to a report by The Daily Beast dated February 27, 2025, wagers on the next Pope were already underway at that time.
At the time, Pope Francis was in the hospital for double pneumonia, which authorities initially suspected to be a respiratory tract infection. Most of these bets reportedly took place on platforms like BetUS and Polymarket, as per the outlet. The top contenders for the position of the next Pope in these bets were Pierbattista Pizzaballa and Pietro Parolin from Italy, and Luis Antonio Tagle from the Philippines.
Pope Francis' funeral is set to be held on Saturday, April 26, 2025. His body will be shifted to St. Peter's Basilica on Wednesday, April 23, and will stay there until the funeral.
Betting on papal conclaves, however, is not a modern concept. According to an article published by the UNLV Center for Gaming Research in April 2015, it was revealed that the city of Rome would be in unrest during the period of voting to elect the new Pope.
At the time, people from different strata of society would be involved in placing bets. The article suggested that the author found references to "scommesse a far il papa" (wagering on the making of the Pope) in newsletters from 16th-century Rome.
