3 reasons why Dominick Reyes could upset Jon Jones | UFC 247

Next weekend will see UFC 247 take place in Houston, Texas, and in one of the most highly anticipated main events in some time, Jon Jones will return to the Octagon to defend his UFC Light-Heavyweight title against undefeated top contender Dominick Reyes.

‘The Devastator’ debuted in the UFC back in 2017 and has gone 6-0 in the promotion, but does he really have what it takes to defeat Jones – one of the most credentialed champions in MMA history looking for his 10th successful title defense? It’s a big call to make, but there are a couple of facts that suggest that in the very least, he has a shot.

Here are 3 reasons why Dominick Reyes could upset Jon Jones at UFC 247.

#1 Reyes uses his frame well

Reyes is adept at using his range to attack his foes

The big advantage that Jon Jones has held over every opponent he’s faced inside the UFC is that his frame is simply enormous for the 205lbs division. ‘Bones’ isn’t the very tallest Light-Heavyweight at 6’4”, but he’s an expert at using his range to get results inside the Octagon, and in particular, his reach is absolutely freakish – 84.5” – allowing him to catch his foes where other fighters might not be able to.

Jones does hold a reach advantage over Dominick Reyes, who also stands at 6’4” but only has a reach of 77”, but in MMA it’s not all about physical range and length, it’s also about how a fighter uses those tools to their advantage. Stefan Struve, for instance, just doesn’t fight like a guy who stands at 7’0” tall with an 84.5” reach.

Reyes on the other hand does fight like a very tall fighter even if he isn’t actually that lanky. His entire game is based around his striking from range, and he’s adept at throwing plenty of kicks from distance and also has a talent for landing combinations from the outside, too. ‘The Devastator’ doesn’t necessarily possess a ramrod jab, but he’s definitely capable of fighting at long range.

The last time we saw an opponent really able to attack Jones at range and shut down the champion’s own offense was when he took on Alexander Gustafsson back at UFC 165 in 2013. Sure, he’s rematched Gustafsson since, but the Swede was a far better fighter 7 years ago – and it was that fight that saw ‘Bones’ pushed harder than he’d ever been pushed before or since.

Add in the fact that Jones’ previous opponent – Thiago Santos – had some success by kicking at ‘Bones’ from the outside, and could it turn out that Reyes has the correct style – and more importantly, physical assets – to upset the champion? Quite possibly.

#2 Jones hasn’t looked at his best recently

Jon Jones didn't look like his dominant self in his win over Thiago Santos

Jon Jones claimed a pair of major wins in 2019, racking up two more successful defenses of his UFC Light-Heavyweight title by beating top contenders Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos. Despite these victories though, the nature of Jones’ performances were not exactly all that impressive. Not to take anything away from either Smith or Santos – both of whom earned their shot at Jones – but ‘Bones’ had fought, and destroyed better opponents in the past.

More interestingly, both fights seemed to highlight some of Jones’ more questionable attributes. Against Smith, it was clear from a very early point in the fight that the challenger was outclassed, and yet it felt like Jones was happy to coast to a win – and also appeared to be bored enough to throw an illegal knee in the fourth round. At no point did he really push hard for a finish, even though Smith was almost totally defensive.

And against Santos, the champion found himself in trouble due to the kicking power and combination striking of the Brazilian, but despite the challenger’s questionable ground game, ‘Bones’ did not look to take him down at any point during the fight – even after he suffered what looked like a serious knee injury.

So what exactly has happened to the New York native? There are a couple of possibilities. One is that he simply wasn’t motivated for his two fights in 2019 – which is a worrying idea given there’s an argument that Dominick Reyes is a more dangerous opponent than both, but still doesn’t carry a lot of name value. Another is that after more than a decade of fights at the top of the UFC, Jones could well be coming to the end of his prime.

If that is the case – and it wouldn’t be too much of a shock given some of the bruising encounters he’s had inside the Octagon over the years – then a young gun like Reyes, whose first professional fight came three years after Jones first won the UFC Light-Heavyweight title, could be perfectly poised to capitalize on his downfall.

#3 Reyes doesn’t know how to lose

Dominick Reyes will come into the fight with the confidence of a long unbeaten streak

Every fighter has to lose at some stage in their career, and even greats like Georges St. Pierre, Anderson Silva and Demetrious Johnson picked up losses early in their careers that appeared to make them better fighters in the long run. However, it’s worth noting that an unbeaten fighter coming into a title fight as the challenger might have a lot more momentum – and confidence – than a challenger who’s suffered plenty of losses.

Simply put, despite not facing too many elite-level opponents thus far in his career, Dominick Reyes does not know how to lose. That means that he brings a certain swagger into the Octagon with him that only an undefeated run like his can bring, and it’s a very different vibe than a former journeyman like Anthony Smith would take into a fight with Jon Jones.

It’s worth noting, for instance, that 6 of the UFC champions crowned in the decade between 2010 and 2019 were undefeated going into their title fight – and that number should be 7 were it not for Jon Jones’ ludicrous disqualification against Matt Hamill.

Perhaps the closest comparison to Reyes’ situation would be in the form of Chris Weidman, who famously unseated Anderson Silva to claim the UFC Middleweight title in 2013. Silva had destroyed basically everyone he’d faced in the UFC, had 10 successful title defenses to his name, and had the aura of an unstoppable fighter – but the unbeaten Weidman, who had the physical attributes and skills to give the Brazilian a tough match – refused to be psyched out by his illustrious opponent.

Jon Jones might be able to get into the head of most of his opponents by reputation alone, but against an undefeated fighter like Reyes who’s never really faced adversity in his UFC career thus far? That’s unlikely, and it could give ‘The Devastator’ an advantage over Jones’ previous opponents come UFC 247.