5 reasons why Gilbert Burns will beat Belal Muhammad at UFC 288

UFC 288 will feature Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad locking horns in a high-level bout with title implications. The Brazilian's lone crack at the divisional throne came against Kamaru Usman at UFC 258. Despite a spirited effort, 'Durinho' came up short after suffering a third-round TKO loss.

Since then, he has reworked himself back into possible title contention. He is currently riding the wave of a two-fight win streak. A win over Belal Muhammad would elevate him to three consecutive wins. Furthermore, it would be a win over the fourth-highest-ranked 170-pounder on the roster.

While 'Remember the Name' will do everything in his power to try to stop Gilbert Burns from defeating him, there is a good chance that his efforts will end in futility. With that in mind, this list details five reasons why 'Durinho' will defeat Muhammad at UFC 288.

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#5. Gilbert Burns' striking style and knockout power match up well with Belal Muhammad

No one will ever confuse Belal Muhammad for a high-level striker despite his recent TKO win over Sean Brady—a grappler by trade. Instead, the Palestinian-American is a competent kickboxer who relies on pressure, a high volume of strikes, and the fear that his takedowns spark in his foe's heart.

He often makes liberal use of the jab, which could expose him to two of Gilbert Burns' best strikes: a calf kick and a left hook. A good jab entails extending one's stance. Fighters must step in as they jab. Unfortunately, this overexposes their lead leg, which is why calf-kicks have become the go-to counters against jabs.

Burns can slam his shin into the back of Muhammad's calf every time his opponent comes forward with a jab. Furthermore, he can—as he often does—slip the jab to land left hooks or an overhand right over the top. Due to the disparity in speed and power between the two men, this could lead to a striking masterclass for Burns.

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#4. Gilbert Burns will have no fear of Belal Muhammad's takedowns

Belal Muhammad isn't a submission threat and has only ever scored a single submission win in 22 victories. He is, however, a skilled wrestler. Unfortunately, this may not pay dividends against someone like 'Durinho', whose high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu skills make him exceptionally dangerous on the mat.

Even Kamaru Usman didn't attempt any takedowns against Gilbert Burns for fear of being submitted. Furthermore, Burns is an excellent offensive wrestler and is one of the few fighters who has ever managed to score takedowns against Tyron Woodley, a two-time NCAA Division I All-American.

On the mat, however, is where he truly shines. If Muhammad takes him down, he will have to be wary of submissions as Burns is a three-time Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion with a third-degree black belt. Muhammad will have to be wary of his armbar, which Burns is particularly vicious with.

He often triangles his foe's trapped arm with his legs, which allows him to easily kick grip to break them and finish the armbar. Reversals are also threats that Burns presents as he often slides an arm under one of his foe's legs, enabling him to roll his opponent the few times he finds himself stuck under them.

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#3. Gilbert Burns is currently in better shape

The truth of the matter is that Gilbert Burns is almost certainly in better shape than Belal Muhammad. 'Durinho' fought last month on the eighth of April, defeating Jorge Masvidal in a bout that saw him sustain zero damage. Meanwhile, Belal Muhammad hasn't set foot inside the octagon since October last year.

Due to how recently the Brazilian jiu-jitsu phenom was in the cage, his physical attributes are better primed for combat than 'Remember the Name'. He will have less training to undertake in order to get ready for his upcoming bout. His timing, speed, and cardio will be at higher levels from the onset of training.

The same cannot be said for Muhammad. He must train to regain his timing and fine-tune his body to fight someone who is trying to hurt him as opposed to a sparring partner and train to get back into fighting shape. There is a difference between being in shape and fighting shape.

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#2. Belal Muhammad might have a harder weight cut

The fight between Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns will take place in the welterweight division. However, according to 'Durinho', 'Remember the Name' initially hoped to face him at middleweight due to the demands of Ramadan, which renders it more difficult for Muhammad to cut weight.

This does not bode well for his chances against the former title challenger. Spending an entire month fasting may very well have a negative impact on Muhammad's performance inside the octagon.

There must be some truth to it if Burns claims that Muhammad tried to request a middleweight bout instead. The amount of weight he must now cut under suboptimal conditions could mean that fans will see a lesser version of 'Remember the Name' come the sixth of May.

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#1. Belal Muhammad is not a finisher and their fight isn't a five-rounder

Gilbert Burns has all of the finishing attributes that Belal Muhammad lacks. 'Durinho' is a very powerful puncher with a breadth of speed and explosiveness. He even rocked Kamaru Usman and dropped Khamzat Chimaev in his two matchups with them.

Not only is he a striking threat, but on the mat, he is the most dangerous force in the welterweight division due to his high-level Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Whether the fight stays standing or goes to the ground, Burns remains more dangerous. Muhammad, meanwhile, is neither fast nor powerful.

His TKO win over Sean Brady was his first TKO/KO win in six years, and only his second finish in that same time frame. On the ground, he has only had one submission in 22 fights. He has no real prospects of finishing Burns, and since the fight is only for three rounds, he won't have enough time for him to tire out.