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The UFC returns to Las Vegas and the APEX this weekend for its latest Fight Night event, which features a middleweight headliner.
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis 2 is very much lacking in star power, but being one week before one of the biggest events of 2024, this is to be expected.
Therefore, with low expectations, the best fans can hope for from this event is a set of fun fights and, hopefully some cool finishes.
Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis 2.
#1. UFC middleweight bout: Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis
Since the start of 2022, few fighters in the UFC's middleweight division have been hotter than Brendan Allen. 'All In' has won his last six bouts in a row, five by submission, and has climbed up to No.6 in the rankings.
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Initially, he was set to fight former title challenger Marvin Vettori here in what would've been a big opportunity for him. With 'The Italian Dream' out injured, Allen has been presented with a different kind of opportunity.
Rather than having a shot to climb into the top five, he'll instead have a chance to avenge his last loss.
Chris Curtis stopped Allen in 2021 via TKO, and will be hoping to repeat the feat here. So can 'Action Man' pull it off?
Naturally, it's well worth looking at their first fight to have a kind of idea how this one might go.
That bout saw Allen come in with serious confidence, which was hardly a surprise given Curtis took it on super-late notice.
However, after a strong first round, 'All In' made a single, continual error. He persisted in attempting to walk through Curtis' strikes, and while he landed plenty of his own, eventually the power of 'Action Man' told.
Curtis cracked Allen with a nasty right hand, and then finished him off with a series of violent knees, picking up a performance bonus in the process.
Since then, though, it's Allen who seems to have developed more. Initially, 'All In' was seen as a jack-of-all-trades type who could fight his foes in any area. While that served him well against most, his losses to Curtis and Sean Strickland showed that he perhaps isn't best suited to trading off.
Allen seems to have learned that and is now far more focused on his grappling. In his recent bouts, his striking has been used primarily to close the distance and to drag his foes down, where he hunts to take the back and sink a choke.
Curtis, though, remains the same. He's a hard-nosed brawler who is capable of taking punishment and giving worse back, and he's got a killer instinct if his opponents are hurt.
Where he's tended to struggle has been with fighters capable of hitting him from the outside while avoiding his big shots in return. Jack Hermansson and Kelvin Gastelum beat him this way, albeit via decision, while Marc-Andre Barriault also succeeded with the approach.
One area that Curtis hasn't struggled with has been takedowns. He's rarely found himself on the mat, even against strong grapplers.
With this considered, it could be argued that 'Action Man' is a bad stylistic match for Allen, who tends to rely on his takedowns and grappling skills.
However, it is worth noting that 'All In' succeeded against Curtis before he was drawn into a brawl, and he enjoys a sizeable height advantage.
Add in the fact that Curtis has taken this five-round bout on around three weeks' notice, and it becomes a little different.
Essentially, if Allen fights patiently, keeps Curtis on the end of his strikes, and refuses to go into a shootout with him, then 'Action Man' will likely slow down and become less dangerous as the fight continues.
Curtis definitely has a puncher's chance, then, but the pick is Allen via decision.
The Pick: Allen via decision
#2. UFC featherweight bout: Alexander Hernandez vs. Damon Jackson
It's probably a sign of the thin nature of this card that this fight has made it to the co-headliner. Both men are coming off losses at 145 pounds, and it's arguable that they may be fighting for their UFC careers here.
Of the two, Alexander Hernandez has definitely had more hype on him over the years. 'The Great Ape' exploded onto the scene back in 2018 with a brutal knockout of top ten ranked Beneil Dariush, and at the age of just 25, appeared to have a hugely bright future.
However, he's never quite reached the high ceiling he appeared to have. Despite coming from an impressive wrestling background, Hernandez has often preferred to strike with his foes, and it's gotten him into trouble with opponents like Donald Cerrone and Drew Dober.
A drop to 145 pounds in 2022 was supposed to relaunch his career, but Hernandez's durability looked shot in a TKO loss to Billy Quarantillo. And while he rebounded by beating veteran Jim Miller, a loss to Bill Algeo showed him struggling again as a featherweight.
Essentially, Hernandez isn't be outmuscled at this weight, but he lacks the speed advantage he had at 155 pounds and seems to have lost some durability, too.
So, can Damon Jackson take advantage of that this weekend? 'The Leech' is now on his second UFC run. His first essentially saw him suffer three losses, but he's fared well this time around.
Between 2020 and 2022, Jackson went 5-1, with his only loss coming to future champion Ilia Topuria. Since then, however, he's lost two in a row, with both fights seeing him eat big strikes.
At his best, 'The Leech' is a danger in all areas, but his grappling is particularly venomous, and he's capable of snatching chokes suddenly to surprise his foes.
The big question here should be around Hernandez's weight cut. If he comes in looking healthy, then he should probably have too much explosive power for Jackson and should be capable of stopping the takedown too.
If that isn't the case, though, it wouldn't be a surprise to see 'The Leech' survive an early storm and take over.
However, Jackson's durability has always been a question mark, and if nothing else, 'The Great Ape' can still crack. Therefore, he feels like the smarter pick here.
The Pick: Hernandez via second-round KO
#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card
In a featherweight bout, Morgan Charriere faces Jose 'Chepe' Mariscal. With both of these men unbeaten in the octagon, this is probably the most underrated fight of the night.
Both men have similar levels of experience, with Mariscal going 2-0 in the promotion and Charriere being 1-0. Based on what we've seen from both, this one is likely to be a slugfest, too.
If that's the case, then Charriere ought to be favored. 'The Last Pirate' showed heavy power and killer instinct in his octagon debut last year and has never been stopped before, while Mariscal has looked a little less polished. This one could go either way, but the pick is Charriere via TKO.
At lightweight, Ignacio Bahamondes faces Christos Giagos. On paper, at least, this is a classic striker vs. grappler bout, even if Bahamondes has submissions on his record and Giagos has TKO wins.
With that considered, then, this one should come down to whether Giagos can close the distance. Bahamondes loves to stay on the outside and wing big punches and kicks, and given that 'La Jaula' has a decent height and reach advantage, closing in might be tricky for 'The Spartan'.
Giagos is probably capable of winning this fight, but he's never been the most explosive fighter so if Bahamondes can settle into a rhythm, he should take it. The pick is Bahamondes via decision.
In a heavyweight tilt, Valter Walker faces Lucasz Brzeski. The brother of light-heavyweight contender Johnny, Walker has never fought in the octagon before, whereas Brzeski has lost all three of his trips there.
Essentially, then, if Walker truly belongs at this level, he should win. Based on the few clips available, 'The Clean Monster' looks like a wilder, larger, and sloppier version of his brother, all crazy strikes and little defense.
Is that going to be enough? The answer is probably given that Brzeski has not shown all that much in his octagon career and was knocked out in his last fight. The pick is Walker via KO.
Finally, Trevor Peek faces Charlie Campbell in a lightweight clash. Given what we've seen from both men, it's understandable that this has been selected for the main card, as it could be an explosive brawl.
Peek received some hype around him last year following a brutal if sloppy KO of Erick Gonzalez, but while his bar-brawling style punches were fun to watch, they didn't serve him well in his second bout.
However, he did look slightly improved in his most recent bout, even if it was against an unproven fighter. Conversely, Campbell looked sharp in his octagon debut and dispatched Alex Reyes with a plethora of clean strikes.
Based on this, if Campbell can avoid Peek's power, then he should take this based on his sharper skills alone. The pick is Campbell via KO.
#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims
Picks in bold
UFC welterweight bout: Court McGee vs. Alex Morono
UFC bantamweight bout: Norma Dumont vs. Germaine de Randamie
UFC bantamweight bout: Heili Alateng vs. Victor Hugo
UFC strawweight bout: Cynthia Calvillo vs. Piera Rodriguez
UFC bantamweight bout: Dan Argueta vs. Jean Matsumoto
UFC middleweight bout: Dylan Budka vs. Cesar Almeida
UFC bantamweight bout: Nora Conolle vs. Melissa Mullins
UFC flyweight bout: Lucas Rocha vs. Joshua Van
