UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

After a terrific event in the form of UFC 295 this past weekend, the show goes on this Saturday with another trip to Las Vegas' Apex.

UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig doesn’t exactly have a lot of star power, so the most the fans can probably hope for is a bunch of fun fights and crazy finishes.

Will we get that? Who knows. Either way, there are at least some watchable fights here.

Here are the predicted outcomes for UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig.

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#1. UFC middleweight bout: Brendan Allen vs. Paul Craig

Can Brendan Allen produce a strong win this weekend? [Image Credit: @b_allen185 on Instagram]

They might feel like unlikely title contenders, but given that Brendan Allen is ranked at No.10 in the middleweight division and Paul Craig is ranked at No.13, the idea of the winner of this fight climbing the ladder is definitely genuine.

So will Scotland’s Craig continue to prove that 185 pounds is the better division for him with a win, or will ‘All In’ extend his lengthy winning streak to six fights?

Interestingly, both men fight with a somewhat similar style. They’re both relatively loose on the feet, and while they’re willing to exchange, neither comes off like a truly polished striker.

On the ground, though, both fighters are hugely dangerous. Allen does his best work if he can get the back of his opponent, as he has a total of 13 submission wins in his career, with 10 of them coming via rear-naked choke.

Craig, on the other hand, is a pretty deadly guard player. From his back, we’ve seen him dispatch the likes of Nikita Krylov, Jamahal Hill, and Magomed Ankalaev.

‘Bearjew’ does have some weaknesses, of course. When he’s faced with another powerful grappler he’s often too wide open and finds himself in trouble, usually due to eating heavy strikes while he hunts for submissions.

Allen, on the other hand, has struggled with durability on the feet before, but it’s probably fair to say that Craig is not the striker that Sean Strickland is, nor does he possess the brute power of Chris Curtis.

In the end, this one is likely to come down to which fighter can get the dominant position on the ground first. If Craig can take Allen down and put him into a difficult spot, then he could well win, but the Scottish fighter is probably more open to finding himself in a bad position.

If he gives his back to ‘All In’, then he’s highly likely to be in danger, and over five rounds, it’s hard to imagine Allen not claiming that position at least once.

Therefore, the pick is Allen via submission.

The Pick: Allen via third-round submission

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#2. UFC welterweight bout: Michael Morales vs. Jake Matthews

There's a lot of hype on Michael Morales right now [Image Credit: @miichaelufc on Instagram]

While this weekend’s co-main event isn’t the biggest in terms of star power, it does pit one of the welterweight division’s best prospects up against a fighter who is now a truly hardened veteran.

It seems odd to label Jake Matthews a veteran, as he still hasn’t reached his 30th birthday. However, ‘The Celtic Kid’ has now been in the UFC for nearly a decade, and has developed into a hard-nosed, tough fighter with skills in all areas.

Sure, the Australian can still be beaten by a fighter willing to put themselves in harm’s way and push the pace standing, or by a superior grappler on the mat, but overall, he won’t go down easily.

Ecuador’s Michael Morales, though, is the man with the hype on him here. At 15-0 he’s plenty experienced and has also reeled off three wins in the octagon, including two via knockout.

Morales is clearly an A+ athlete, and while he lacks polish right now, it’s easy to understand why there’s a lot of talk around him given the power he possesses in his hands.

However, it was in his most recent clash with veteran Max Griffin that showed he’s more than just a dangerous finisher. He displayed toughness, eating plenty of shots and surviving, and he also escaped some tricky situations on the ground, too.

Can he beat Matthews, though? It’s quite hard to say. The Australian’s biggest issue isn’t so much with skill, it’s with his inconsistency. Therefore, against an opponent like Morales who isn’t all that polished, if he comes in at his best, he could well blitz the Ecuadorian as he did Andre Fialho last year.

Despite this, the amount of pressure that Morales tends to pour on his foes should be worrying for ‘The Celtic Kid’, who has never been all that great fighting off the back foot. This should be a hugely tight one to call and it should be fun too, but the pick – by a hair – is Morales via decision.

The Pick: Morales via decision

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#3. UFC Fight Night: The Main Card

Prospect Chase Hooper features on this weekend's main card [Image Credit: @choop556 on Instagram]

In a lightweight bout, Chase Hooper faces Jordan Leavitt. This is an interesting fight as the now-24-year-old Hooper has gained a decent amount of experience over the past few years and now seems to be hitting a rich vein of form. His win over Nick Fiore in May, for instance, showed some hugely improved striking.

The issue for ‘The Dream’ is still his durability, how willing he is to eat shots, and whether he can fend off the wrestling of an opponent like Leavitt. After all, ‘The Monkey King’ is an underrated fighter with some good takedowns and a lot of power.

Overall, though, this fight appears to favor Hooper. If he can put Leavitt on his back as Paddy Pimblett did in 2022 and can gain a dominant position, it should be his fight to lose. The pick is Hooper via submission.

In a bantamweight clash, Payton Talbott faces Nick Aguirre. As always with relatively inexperienced fighters at this level, this one is a tough one to call. Aguirre didn’t show too much in his octagon debut loss back in January, while Talbott has only been professional for two years, although he does hold a 6-0 record.

Essentially, when you’re going off short highlight clips, it’s a total coin flip, and in this sense, the pick is Talbott via decision.

In a strawweight fight, Luana Pinheiro takes on Amanda Ribas. This one should be good, as Pinheiro is still unbeaten in the octagon at 4-0 and last defeated Michelle Waterson-Gomez. Ribas, meanwhile, suffered a loss to Maycee Barber last time out, but holds strong wins over the likes of Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba.

This is a tough one to pick as both women have plenty of skills in all areas, but Ribas is perhaps the more proven fighter, particularly on the feet. The pick is Ribas via decision.

Finally, at welterweight, Jonny Parsons faces Uros Medic. This one should be exciting, as both men come to throw down and scored wild knockouts in their last bouts. It’s also a tough one to pick, as both men have looked limited if dangerous in their octagon careers.

Overall, though, Medic is probably the slightly sharper striker. Assuming he can avoid getting involved in a brawl with the powerful ‘Suggernaut’, the pick is Medic via TKO.

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#4. UFC Fight Night: The Prelims

Picks in bold

UFC featherweight bout: Jonathan Pearce vs. Joanderson Brito

UFC bantamweight bout: Chad Anheliger vs. Jose Johnson

UFC middleweight bout: Cesar Almeida vs. Christian Duncan

UFC heavyweight bout: Mick Parkin vs. Caio Machado

UFC featherweight bout: Jeka Saragih vs. Lucas Alexander

UFC bantamweight bout: Lucie Pudilova vs. Ailin Perez

UFC lightweight bout: Trey Ogden vs. Nikolas Motta

UFC flyweight bout: Charles Johnson vs. Rafael Estevam

UFC lightweight bout: Ottman Azaitar vs. Darrius Flowers