Australian Open 2010: Roger Federer's 'Knack' in Big Matches

Roger Federer is looking for his First Grand Slam as a Father

So, here we go again. The speculation before the start of a high profile Grand Slam final. Will Roger Federer increase the gap between him and others? Will Andy Murray finally satiate the British thirst for a major they haven’t won for, what, 150,000 years? I don’t know. Neither do you. Neither do Federer or Murray themselves. If history teaches us anything, it is that predictions are useless. Yet we love to predict, and even argue with others who beg to differ on what can be simply termed as plain hypothesis—how else can we kill time when the second week isn’t as filled with action as the first?

The stage is set for the final, and I mean this literally because after the Wimbledon final in ‘08, I cannot find any Slam final that had a better lead up. Both players are equally fit without any nagging injuries, in red hot form, and have had enough rest (Federer’s beating of Jo Wilfried Tsonga effectively ruled out any advantage that Murray had with an extra day off) and have more than enough motivation to touch the finish line.

Conditions aside, both have enough share of history between them. Roger thinks that the match is always on his racket while playing the Scot, Andy thinks that Federer ought to respect him more since he is probably the only player apart from Rafael Nadal to boast a winning head-to-head against the Swiss. If anything, this match will set the record straight for one of these players—“I told you so.”

In one of my earlier pieces, I had mentioned that Federer knows how to peak during a major, and his drubbing of Tsonga after a mostly lackluster first week—by his lofty standards—reminded me once again what exactly I meant when I said that. The one thing that stood out in those 88 minutes, the magical shots aside, was his movement. At six months over 28, Federer will not keep this level throughout the year, and this was the first time after Cincinnati ‘09 that he covered the court so smoothly and effortlessly.

He is going to need a lot of that against Murray who lives and dies by making his opponent dance. And this means, Murray has the game to irritate Federer and forcing him into errors as he often does. But if their last two meetings at Cincinnati and London were any indication, Federer seems to have finally found that fine balance between surviving the rallies and being an aggressor.

The more important thing for Federer, though, would be to win the first set. He has lost only a minuscule five out of the 176 Grand Slams matches he played after winning the first set. As we have seen, Federer is an excellent front runner, and he will be expected to come with all guns blazing at the start of the match (similar to what he did during their meeting at New York).

Another concern for Roger will be to get more first balls into play. Murray has been extremely lethal on returning the second serves, stepping in three feet inside the baseline and ripping back the returns. If he serves around 60 percent, then he should be confident on his chances.

All said and done, it is almost a battle of equals, and little to choose between the two. Hence the outside factors will have to creep in at a point. Will Federer’s experience of playing in 21 major finals help him to be calm and focused at the most important moments? Or will the added motivation on Murray’s side provide him an extra gear needed to scrape through?

I’ am going with the factor which has already proven itself 15 out of 21 times. Roger Federer will hold the advantage and would join the rare list of fathers with a Grand Slam title.

To read the viewpoint predicting a Murray’s win tomorrow, click here