EPL Predictions - Overachieving Team

For this category in my EPL predictions series, I considered which team amongst the 20 EPL sides would see the most improvement from their 2012/13 campaign. There are many promising teams to choose from. Mauricio Pochettino’s Southampton side look primed for a great season after they sured up their defensive efforts by signing Celtic’s Victor Wanyama and Lyon centre back Dejan Lovren. All three of the sides promoted from the nPower Championship, Hull City Tigers, Cardiff City and Crystal Palace, will have overachieved simply if they avoid relegation.

But for me, the team that is most likely to overachieve in 2013/14 is Paolo Di Canio’s Sunderland.

Even before Di Canio opened his pre-season with a tour of Asia, I was optimistic about Sunderland’s 2013/14 campaign. Following on from the back end of last season the enthusiastic manager seems to have brought a new purpose and energy to a Sunderland team in desperate need of a new direction.

His focus in this summer break has been to drastically increase the fitness of his squad, which he admitted back in April was not good enough for a premier league club. With that problem now addressed, expect Sunderland to be one of the fittest and hungriest teams in the entire league this year, and a far cry from the limp, lacklustre team we were all exposed to at times in the previous campaign.

Now that the team is back from their Asian tour, and the season is right on our doorstep, I am even more convinced of Sunderland’s turnaround. The Black Cats showed real quality on the tour. They put on an impressive show against Tottenham in Hong Kong, beating Spurs 3-1. Both teams started with something close to a first team XI so the result should be encouraging to any Black Cat fans.

Sunderland continued impressing on the tour after that win against Spurs, displaying a solid performance, albeit a losing performance, against Championship hopefuls Manchester City. The tour was only the very beginning of what Di Canio wants to accomplish on Wearside, but all the signs are there that this new squad has some real potential heading into 2013.

As well as changing the atmosphere around the club, the Italian manager has also been active in the transfer window, bringing in some great new signings and purging the squad of some of the dead weight and non-believers that were piling up on the books.

For a team that barely managed to average a goal a game last season (41 goals in 38 games), a potent attacking threat was a glaring need. Di Canio and his staff, to their credit, identified this early and addressed those areas to great effect. New signings Jose Altidore and Emanuele Giaccherini, who will combine with incumbent duo Adam Johnson and Stéphane Sessègnon, will create a dangerous front line capable of drastically improving last season’s abysmal goal tally.

Don’t forget that the squad will also be welcoming back Steven Fletcher, whose goals for the club before his season ending injury were essential in helping Sunderland avoid the drop. Having him fit again is like a having a new signing itself.

As far as the actual new signings go, Jose Altidore is an American striker who signed for the Black Cats from Dutch outfit AZ Alkmaar, and should provide an upgrade to the Sunderland strike force. However, whilst potentially a very good pick up for the club, Altidore is far from a guarantee. Although the American scored 38 goals in two years for AZ Alkmaar, an efficient scoring record in the Dutch league is little guarantee of success in the English Premier League. Just consider Mateja Kezman and Afonso Alves, two disappointing premier league players whose reputations were moulded from impressive tallies in the Eredivisie.

In fact, before his stint in the Dutch league Altidore was quite an underwhelming player. He has been a relative non-factor in his time before AZ, including a stint on loan at Hull City where he scored just once as Hull were relegated from the EPL in 2010. His disappointing play meant that he was able to move to Alkmaar for very little in 2011. Now, after two seasons of ripping up the Eredivisie, Altidore is back in the Premiership, this time by way of a $13 million purchase.

For every Kezman and Afonso Alves in the Dutch league, there is also a Dennis Bergkamp and Ruud Van Nistelrooy. In all likelihood Altidore will fall somewhere in between, failing to set the world alight but offering enough to see Sunderland become an improved attacking team in 2013/14.

While many aren’t sure what to expect from Josy Altidore, Emanuele Giacherrini is a much less risky proposition. In fact, he may well end up becoming the signing of the season when all is said and done.

The versatile Italian came to Sunderland by way of Juventus, for whom he played 40 games between 2011-2013. He was a big part of the side that has won back to back Serie A titles, including an unbeaten league campaign in 2011-12. For those who doubt Giacherrini’s quality, consider that Juventus manager Antonio Conte put up a real fight to try and convince his club not to part with the versatile Italian international. However, his hands were tied as the club were required to recoup funds which were paid out for earlier in the transfer window for players such as Carlos Tevez and Fernando Llorente.

If anybody had lingering doubts, Giacherrini’s quality was confirmed for all during the recent Confederations Cup. He put in a number of outstanding performances for Italy, and might well have been the player of the tournament if it weren’t for the brilliant Brazilian forward Neymar, whose contributions essentially won the competition for the home nation. Giacherrini was undoubtedly the best player in an Italian side which featured the likes of Mario Balotelli, Andrea Pirlo and Daniele De Rossi. His now unquestioned quality makes the Italian the sort of player who can single-handedly lift a team from the bottom half of the table to the top.

With his new signings and a new attitude at the Stadium of Light, a lot can be expected of Paolo Di Canio’s team this season. However, the Italian maestro hasn’t solved all of the problems facing the North East club. While Di Canio has done a lot of positive things since he arrived on Wearside in April, the defence is still somewhat of a problem area that, in truth, Di Canio has all but ignored.

The team only conceded 54 goals in the last campaign, which is a much better total than almost every other team in the bottom half of the table. On top of that, they will have Wes Brown returning from injury which should provide a sizeable boost to the defensive efforts.

However with ageing defensive stalwarts John O’Shea and Brown leading the back line, Di Canio can’t expect that such defensive security will last. His team is weak at full back and old at centre back, a combination which makes them vulnerable against virtually everyone. Above all else, that should be the biggest worry for Sunderland fans as they enter this new season.

Having said that, with the plethora of attacking options and the new elite level of fitness that he has demanded from his players, Di Canio should have enough to see the Black Cats rise significantly from last season’s precariously low perch of 17th place. The annual flirtation with the premier league’s trapdoor may well be a thing of the past now, and fans should be expecting a safe and comfortable campaign on Wearside this season.