2-time AEW champion to challenge Malakai Black to a huge match at major upcoming show? Analyzing the chances

The AEW run of Malakai Black has been a controversial topic of discussion since shortly after his arrival in July 2021. The veteran grappler continues to lead The House of Black, but his singles career has taken a hit. New speculation has a top AEW star potentially taking out all three members of the sinister faction, ending with Black at the upcoming Homecoming special.

The Anti-Hero began his wrestling journey in 2002, making his name as Tommy End on the European indies. Black also worked in Japan and the United States before WWE came calling in June 2016. After meeting wife Zelina Vega, becoming NXT Champion, defeating Bobby Lashley in his WrestleMania singles debut, and mounting a lengthy RAW undefeated streak, the Dutch grappler was released on June 2, 2021. He then debuted for AEW on July 7.

Kings of the Black Throne reunited in All Elite Wrestling after Brody King was signed in early 2022. Buddy Matthews, who began a storyline relationship with Black in WWE, later joined the group now known as House of Black, as did Julia Hart. The one-time World Trios Champions have had an up-and-down run in AEW, but generally have been booked strong for the most part. King recently suffered a significant Continental Classic loss to a top star who has a history with Black, and Matthews will have to deal with that same 2-time All Elite champion tonight on Dynamite: Will Ospreay.

The Commonwealth Kingpin first wrestled the former Aleister Black of WWE in January 2015 for wXw, coming up short in just over eleven minutes. Ospreay won their next match for SWE that September, and again in March 2016 for GWP. FPW hosted the last Black vs. Ospreay singles bout in July 2016, which saw the former NJPW champion make the series 3-1. The two international talents actually teamed up once, at WWN Live's Mercury Rising show in April 2016. The 23-minute match saw Black, Ospreay, and Marty Scurll lose to Johnny Gargano, Kota Ibushi, and TJP.

Big Bad wrestled his first-ever match with Ospreay on the Christmas edition of Dynamite, but King was defeated in just under sixteen minutes. The loss eliminated Brody from the Continental Classic, allowing Ospreay to eventually advance to the finals, where he lost to Kazuchika Okada. Now on the second Dynamite of 2025, Matthews is looking to get revenge for his stablemate as he faces Ospreay in another first-time-ever match.

Black made his AEW in-ring debut by headlining the 2021 Homecoming with a win over Cody Rhodes, but new speculation has the 3-time NXT Year-End Award winner returning to the Daily's Place ring later this month, perhaps against The Aerial Assassin. One potential scenario has Ospreay issuing the Homecoming challenge to Black on tonight's Dynamite, if he's able to defeat Matthews.

The Dutch Destroyer would be wrestling just his sixth AEW singles match since 2024 if he were to lock up with Ospreay at Homecoming. Black has had twenty-one tag team bouts in that same period, but he only worked five one-on-one bouts last year: wins over Bryan Keith, Christopher Daniels, and Kyle O'Reilly; losses to Adam Copeland and Adam Cole. Black's booking is the main reason for the criticism over his run that is aimed at AEW by various people around the industry.

Black vs. Ospreay at AEW Homecoming would potentially mean big things for either man as Khan maps out creative plans for 2025. It's likely that a big win for the House of Black leader could lead him to his first AEW singles championship victory, while Ospreay could also use the momentum in his chase for the AEW World Championship to add to his two International Championship reigns.

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AEW to confirm two big title matches

Jon Moxley is riding high as the current World Champion of All Elite Wrestling, while Mariah May is moving forward with momentum as the World Women's Champion. The polarizing heels will both find out their next challengers in the coming weeks.

Tonight's Dynamite will feature a Casino Gauntlet with the winner becoming the new #1 contender to the World Championship. The challenger will then go to next week's Maximum Carnage Dynamite to challenge Moxley for the gold in his hometown.

Dynamite will also feature Toni Storm vs. Kris Statlander vs. Willow Nightingale to determine the #1 spot in a Women's Casino Gauntlet at next Wednesday's Maximum Carnage show. The winner of that Gauntlet will go on to challenge May for her title on February 15 at Grand Slam: Australia.