Aaron Judge bet on himself this offseason, turning down a seven-year, $213.5 million deal before the season began. He turned in otherworldly performances all season long, dragging the New York Yankees to the postseason and a division title.
He hit 62 home runs, breaking an American League and franchise record that had stood since 1961. The only seasons with more home runs were in the National League and have been marred by steroid controversy.
Now that he's officially a free agent, he can go anywhere. But here's why we believe he'll stay with the Yankees instead of leaving for potentially greener pastures.
#1 They're his first team
This will not be a case of the hometown team getting a discount to sign their star player, but it will be a case of the hometown team getting a better chance at signing him.
Judge's life is in New York and he's the face of the most illustrious franchise in sports. That alone is a good reason the two parties will come together and work out a deal for him to stay.
#2 He just had the best season possibly in franchise history
The Yankees right fielder smashed all expectations this year. He broke the longstanding AL and team home run record and put together one of the best seasons in Yankees history.
The team knows that and they know what it'll look like if they don't re-sign him. The fans are disgruntled over the lack of a title, but they'll be much more disgruntled if the team doesn't bring back the fan-favorite after a historic season.
#3 The Yankees desperately need him
Judge posted an incredible 11.4 fWAR on the season. WAR is tough to translate to on-field results, but that number suggests that the Yankees would have had 11.4 fewer wins had they fielded someone like Charlie Blackmon in right field (Blackmon posted a 0.1 fWAR for the season). That would have put the Yankees at 88 wins and barely the final wild card team.
That kind of production is not what the Yankees want every year, so they know how valuable Judge is. He won't produce 11 wins every year, but he'll produce more than a lot of players they could field instead.
#4 He wants to remain a Yankee for life
Judge has never been shy about his desire to be a Yankee lifer. He said so before the season and has always reiterated that at every turn:
"The money, the contract has never been why I play this game. I want to play for the Yankees and be here for a long time. If it works out, it works out - if it doesn't, it doesn't."
That should be enough for both sides to work something out.
#5 They're the Yankees
If there's a team that can afford to pay Judge $1 billion for his services, it's the Yankees. The right fielder might command a yearly salary more than MLB leader Max Scherzer's $43.3 million a season, but the Yankees have always been able to pay anything they want.
While it might end up being an albatross on the back end when Judge is reaching 40 years of age, that won't hurt the Yankees like it would other teams.