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The AL East is one of the best divisions in baseball. Last year, almost every single team finished above .500. This year, they will likely come close to doing the same again. There is a small but not impossible chance that this division produces four playoff teams. Last year, they sent three teams to the postseason and probably will do so again if they don't add the final Wild Card. Here's how we believe the standings will shake out.
Predicting final AL East rankings
5) Boston Red Sox
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The Boston Red Sox will probably not be a horrible team. However, much like last year, someone has to finish last. They hardly addressed the massive pitching problems, and the pitcher they did bring in, Lucas Giolito, is injured. Their lineup also has holes and overall they were not incredibly active this offseason, as they also lost a starting outfielder. They have enough talented players to win some games, but not nearly enough in this division.
Record: 80-82
4) Tampa Bay Rays
Spring Training doesn't mean much, but the Tampa Bay Rays were pretty awful. They also traded away their best pitcher and a starting outfielder and didn't make many moves in free agency. They also won't have Wander Franco. There's good reason to believe they'll regress, and that's bad news in such a talented division as this one. They'll still be good, but they might just miss the playoffs.
Record: 90-72
3) Toronto Blue Jays
The Toronto Blue Jays are a good team. Unfortunately, they just didn't get better this offseason. Moving from Matt Chapman to Isiah Kiner-Falefa is a downgrade at third base, and Justin Turner, at his age, doesn't move the needle all that much. They missed out on Shohei Ohtani, and they just didn't add talent to an already talented group, which could prove costly.
Record: 92-70
2) New York Yankees
The New York Yankees should be better than they were last year. They had abysmal injury luck (some of that hasn't gone away in 2024), and they improved the roster. They're stronger at both corner outfield spots and catcher, two major weak spots from 2023. Assuming their players don't again have career-worst years, they're effectively a 99-win team that added Juan Soto and Carlos Rodon for a full season. That should be enough to get them back to the playoffs, even if some early injuries are a concern.
Record: 93-69
1) Baltimore Orioles
There's not a single American League team better than the Baltimore Orioles, whose prospects could make them unfathomably stronger later on this year. 100 wins is almost a minimum for them, so there's certainly no reason to believe they won't repeat as champions. Thanks to Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson and Corbin Burnes, they should be the favorites to win this division, probably by a wide margin.
Record: 104-58
