2025 NBA Draft: Tre Johnson is carrying Kevin Durant's alma matter and is a scoring phenom

The 2025 NBA draft class features a handful of elite college freshmen scorers lighting up defenses early in their careers. Texas wing Tre Johnson can pour in points with the best of them. Through his first 10 college games, Johnson averaged 19.9 points per game on an excellent 60.4% true shooting clip.

The Longhorns ask Johnson to carry the brunt of their offensive load, something most freshmen can’t handle. He’s maintained excellent efficiency on a significant 27% usage rate. Only three high major freshmen (Fears, Harper, Flagg) command the ball more than Johnson to this point of the season. His 19.9 points per game only trails Harper among freshman scorers.

In a draft class loaded with elite shooting talents — Ace Bailey, Kon Knueppel, Will Riley, Koby Brea, Liam McNeeley — Johnson has built a strong case as the best of them all. Building on his strong high-school shooting priors, Johnson has burned down the nets at Texas so far, connecting on 43.3% of his 3-pointers.

Johnson’s underlying indicators help inspire confidence that he’ll sustain elite efficiency throughout his career. He’s attempted a massive 12.3 3-pointers per 100 possessions. Shooting volume is often a more stable indicator than raw efficiency and Johnson fires away with confidence. Johnson accesses every shot one could think of, from movement threes to step-back jumpers to deep-range catch and shoots.

His touch is feathery, evidenced by a strong 83.9% free-throw percentage. Johnson is an excellent mid-range shooter as well, another positive indicator of shooting translation. He’s made 45.8% of his off-dribble mid-range jumpers (11-24) and 50% of his floaters (8-16). It’s tough to poke holes in Johnson’s jumper projection, especially considering his height and age.

What will be Tre Johnson's ceiling?

That elite shooting will boost his floor, but Johnson’s driving and paint pressure may determine his ultimate ceiling. Without an incredible burst or power, Johnson can struggle to create advantages downhill at times and score at the rim. He’s a fairly dynamic, controlled dribbler with a change of speed and deception to win with a screen and work towards the rim.

Johnson hasn’t scored much at the rim this season, though. He’s attempted a paltry 10.3% of his half-court shots at the rim, finishing 45.5% of them (5-11). Johnson doesn’t draw many fouls either (20.7 free-throw rate), forcing him to rely on his jump shooting to maintain strong efficiency.

At the NBA level, Johnson’s best fit may come as an off-ball scorer. His movement shooting offers plenty of upside here, as it’s rare to find creators as adept as Johnson at creating threes without the basketball. Attacking off of closeouts and screens helps minimize Johnson’s separation concerns and opens up lanes for him to score in the paint.

Playing in an off-ball, screen-centric role meshes well with his playmaking flashes. Johnson isn’t a high-volume passer, tallying just 2.2 assists per game with a low 12.9% assist rate. He’s a score-first player, looking to create and hit shots as his primary mode of offense. His turnover avoidance (1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio), though, is a positive sign for his translation as an NBA playmaker

Johnson has clear passing talent, even if the decision-making isn’t always perfect. He’s put high-level, live-dribble passes on tape, hitting impressive pick-and-roll reads and manufacturing tight window passes off of his scoring gravity. These playmaking glimpses bode well for his eventual development, especially in a lower-usage role at the pro level.

Most offensively slanted combos struggle defensively without many redeeming qualities on that end. That’s not the case for Johnson, who flashed impressive defensive ability early in the season, especially on the ball. At 6’5, Johnson’s lateral quickness, fluidity and bend help him evade screens and mirror opponents.

Like many high-usage teenagers, Johnson often loses focus and lapses in concentration. Given his current ball-watching tendencies, he’ll need to lock in off of the ball at the next level to thrive as a defender. Johnson doesn’t create turnovers either, posting a low 1.6% steal rate and 1.0% block rate.

We must consider Johnson’s offensive role to contextualize his defense. When Johnson expends less energy on offense, his defensive intensity could improve. College freshmen tend to struggle on defense, even ones who end up developing into excellent NBA defenders.

In a broad sense, Johnson’s projection reminds me of a (hopefully more consistent) D’Angelo Russell. We’ve seen Russell produce like a near All-Star at times throughout his career on the back of his shooting and passing talent, but his rim pressure, decision making and defensive consistency hold him back.

Where will Tre Johnson get drafted in 2025 NBA Draft

It’s far from a perfect comparison, but that projection makes Johnson worth a lottery pick at the very least in this loaded draft class. Johnson’s scoring production, great efficiency and high usage rate all paint a positive picture of his offensive translation to the NBA level. Consistent defensive impact could make Johnson a perennial All-Star talent.

His range of outcomes feels narrower than many high-ceiling, low-floor prospects in this class. Johnson might never develop into an All-NBA creator, but it’s hard to see him failing completely given his scoring and shooting prowess. That profile will attract teams, especially ones with their offensive and defensive stars in place.

Developing into a truly elite shooter could widen Johnson’s star pathways. Elite, high-volume pull-up 3-point shooting has proven a viable path to stardom. Johnson has the profile to slide in and contribute as a 3-and-D plus player if he can’t reach that eventual ceiling. If he continues to play at this level against SEC opponents, it’s easy to imagine Johnson leaving the board in the top five or 10 picks next summer.