2025 NCAA March Madness: NBA Draft Expert picks best high seeds

The March Madness Bracket revealed itself on Selection Sunday, officially marking the beginning of the best few weeks of the year. We all love upsets and sleeper picks, but most of the teams that carve deep runs are top seeds.

Not all high seeds are equal. Some are built for tournament play better than others, some have better injury luck and some have easier paths. Let’s discuss five high seeds we believe are set up well to advance far in the NCAA tournament.

Duke (1 seed, East Region)

With Cooper Flagg slated to play in the tournament, the Blue Devils look poised to make a deep run. They’re a dominant team, ranking first in Kenpom net rating and second according to Bart Torvik. Duke has a Kenpom adjusted-net rating of +38.16, rendering them the highest net team in the history of the database.

Assuming Flagg’s ankle doesn’t limit his impact, the best player in college basketball should translate his dominance to the tournament. He anchors Duke’s elite defense alongside fellow freshman big Khaman Maluach. Many of Duke’s potential early opponents, notably Baylor, Mississippi State and Oregon won’t have anyone to match up with Flagg, and the Blue Devils beat Arizona by 14 in November.

Duke’s veteran depth builds a foundation of experience that many freshmen-led teams don’t have. Beyond Flagg, Maluach and Kon Knueppel, players like Sion James, Maliq Brown and Mason Gillis all contribute key minutes. Anything can happen in the tournament, but Duke’s star talent, depth, experience and regular-season success project a possible Final Four run.

Florida (1 seed, West Region)

The Florida Gators are playing as well as any team in the country right now. Comfortably winning a loaded SEC tournament, beating Tennessee by nine and Alabama by 18, should give the Gators quite a bit of momentum. Florida’s elite offense, ranked number one in the country by Kenpom, will drive their potential March Madness success.

A much improved Florida team will hope to avenge a heartbreaking loss to Colorado at the buzzer in last year’s first round. Walter Clayton Jr. is a dominant guard playing at an elite level on both ends of the floor. He’s averaging 21.4 points and 6 assists per game while shooting 44.4% from deep over his last five games.

Clayton Jr. harmonizes with Florida’s loaded frontcourt, led by possible first-round pick Alex Condon. He, Thomas Haugh, Reuben Chinyelu and Micah Handlogten form a dangerous big-man group that few college teams can match. Florida’s current form, roster balance, coaching and star power are all immense. They should make a deep run despite their challenging region

St. John’s (2 seed, West Region)

Rick Pitino brought the Johnnies back to the Big Dance for the first time since 2019 with Chris Mullin at the helm. Pitino’s long history of big game success will boost any team’s chances, especially one as impressive as this St. John’s team. Kenpom and Bart Torvik both view the Red Storm as a top-two defense, anchored by big man Zuby Ejiofor.

St. John’s’ offense will rely on their veteran guard and wing creators, led by RJ Luis. He’s a funky forward initiator who wins with an impressive handle and immense scoring and driving craft. Luis, Kadary Richmond and Devion Smith all bring quite a bit of experience, despite none of them being prolific shooters. Pitino’s squad made 30.4% of their threes this season, making them one of the worst shooting teams in the field.

They must overcome historical trends to make a deep push; no top-2 seed that wasn’t ranked in a preseason AP poll has ever made a final four. Still, St. John’s has the defensive chops, roster talent and creators requisite to win against any team. We’ll see if Rick Pitino can work his magic in the tournament once again.

Kentucky (3 seed, Midwest Region)

John Calipari’s departure from Lexington this year was a speedbump at most for a wildly successful Kentucky team. New head coach Mark Pope and an entirely new roster put together a strong season. They’re still an offensively slanted roster like last season, but their defense jumped from outside the top 100 last year to inside the top 50 under Pope according to Bart Torvik.

Pope’s offensive scheme brings movement, pace and space and he has the talent to maximize it. Lamont Butler has deep tournament experience and Otega Oweh is playing some of the best basketball of his life. Koby Brea might be the best shooter in the tournament and the ‘Cats roll out an excellent frontcourt rotation with multiple skillsets, featuring Andrew Carr, Amari Williams and Brandon Garrison.

Injuries are Kentucky’s main area of concern, as they’re already missing Jaxson Robinson and Kerr Kriisa. Butler should play in the tournament after suffering recurring shoulder injuries, but we can’t be sure how he’ll look. Even without a full-strength Butler, the Wildcats have the coaching quality, roster talent and depth to bring Kentucky back to the Final Four since 2015.

Iowa State (3 seed, South Region)

The Cyclones are one of the most complete teams in the tournament field. According to Bart Torvik, Iowa State is one of six teams in the country with a top-20 offense and defense, alongside Houston, Duke, Auburn, Florida, and Tennessee. T.J. Otzelberger has led Iowa State to the tournament in each of his three seasons in Ames, and his experience will be key to a deep run.

Iowa State ranks in the top 15 in opponent turnover rate (21.8%), relying on defensive playmakers like Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson and Curtis Jones to flummox opposing offenses. Jones, the Big 12 sixth man of the year, carries the majority of his team’s offensive load and will need to create and score at a high level.

Just like Kentucky, Iowa State must overcome a critical injury to star guard Keshon Gilbert, who won’t play in the tournament. Without Gilbert’s offense especially, players like Jones, Lipsey and Milan Momcilovic must provide even more juice on that end. Even without one of their key players, the Cyclones are deep and talented enough to be considered a genuine dark horse National Title threat.