2025 NCAA Tournament: NBA Draft Expert's picks for bracket busters to avoid

Even though the higher seeds tend to dominate March Madness, upsets make the tournament special. Plenty of top-ranked teams end up disappointing in the tournament, losing a single elimination game to a hungry underdog.

Let’s discuss some higher seeds that could falter earlier in the tournament than expected. This could be due to injury, roster limitations or an unfavorable draw in the bracket.

Auburn (1 seed, South Region)

For much of the season, Auburn fielded the best team in the country. But they’ve slowed down lately, dropping three of their last four games, including an SEC tournament loss to Tennessee. We’ve seen excellent teams on cold streaks falter entering the NCAA tournament despite their talent, which could befall the Tigers.

Auburn’s roster should be healthy by the tournament, but they’ve faced injuries as recently as the end of conference play. Johni Broome is Auburn’s primary weapon, as he’s one of the best players in the country and a dominant two-way force. The Tigers could face some excellent big men early in the bracket, though, enduring possible matchups with Creighton and Ryan Kalkbrenner, Michigan and Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin and Texas A&M’s elite rebounding group all before the Elite 8. If they match up with Louisville in the round of 32, they’ll essentially have a road game in Lexington.

It wouldn’t be wise to discount the Tigers. They are a dominant team, especially on offense, with plenty of depth and star talent capable of fueling a Final Four run. Bruce Pearl’s squad has what it takes to beat anyone, but Auburn’s path won’t be easy. We saw them lose in the first round last year. This team is much improved, but the Tigers will be tested in a challenging section of the bracket.

Texas Tech (3 seed, West Region)

The Red Raiders have a few factors working against them in the tournament, the first of them being injuries. Darrion Williams and Chance McMillan both missed time in the Big 12 tournament. Williams especially is a critical component of Texas Tech’s plan as their primary perimeter creator, but McMillan’s complementary shooting and scoring matter as well.

We don’t know if or when those two will play. If they aren’t ready for the opening weekend, Texas Tech must overcome tough matchups without them. They should still match up well with a paint-centric UNC Wilmington team, but Texas Tech will face Missouri or Drake in the second round, both excellent teams with great coaching and NBA talent.

Texas Tech will rely extra on big man JT Toppin, who has been a machine on the glass, as an interior scorer and paint defender. They’re a talented enough team to make a run if everything breaks right, but health, matchups and a difficult region could see them exiting the tournament earlier than anticipated.

Purdue (4 seed, Midwest Region)

Purdue joins Auburn as a higher-seeded team entering the tournament playing well below their highest gear. The Boilermakers lost six of their final nine games, most recently enduring a blowout loss to Michigan in the Big 10 tournament. They’ll need to flip a switch quickly to avoid an early exit.

The Boilermakers won’t have an easy path out of the first weekend, matching up in the round of 64 with a scorching High Point team on a 14-game win streak. High point are a top-30 offense (according to Bart Torvik) who thrives in the paint. They could be troublesome for a shaky Purdue defense which ranks 348th in opponent 2-point efficiency (56.4%). If they overcome High Point, neither Clemson nor McNeese State in the second round will be pushovers.

Braden Smith is one of the country’s best guards and a super playmaker and outside shooter. He and Trey Kaufman-Renn can compete with any duo on offense. They won’t have an easy path though and will have to lock in on the defensive end to counter the high-powered offenses they’ll face in the tournament.

Michigan (5 seed, South Region)

The committee didn’t show the Wolverines any love for winning their conference tournament, granting them an unfavorable bracket placement. Michigan, which relies on their elite big-man duo to score in the paint and create second chances, will face a UC San Diego team that defends the interior stoutly despite a lack of height. The Tritons force a ton of turnovers and Michigan ranks 328th in turnover rate, presenting an extremely challenging matchup on paper.

Michigan’s challenges won’t end after the first round. They’ll face a physical, scrappy Texas A&M team or an experienced Yale squad in round two, and Michigan will likely have to battle Johni Broome and Auburn to make it out of the region. Based on the matchup and quality of the opponent, there won’t be any gimme matchups for the Wolverines this time around.

Dusty May has proven himself capable of taking his teams deep into the tournament. Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin will give most teams problems and their role players will be key, especially if they can knock down threes. Michigan feels more talented than the average five seed, but matchups are king in March and those don’t seem to favor the Wolverines.

Memphis (5 seed, West Region)

As a reward for winning their conference tournament, the committee gifted Memphis one of the toughest paths of any high seed in the entire field. In the first round, they’ll face a red-hot Colorado State team fresh off of a Mountain West Tournament win. Bart Torvik and Kenpom both view the Rams, led by future first-round pick Nique Clifford, as a superior team to Memphis.

If the Tigers can end Colorado State’s 10-game win streak, their obstacles won’t become any easier. They could face a four-seeded Maryland led by an elite NBA prospect in Derik Queen and a top-10 defense. If Maryland loses in round one, they’ll match up with a Grand Canyon team far more talented than their seeding with big-time tournament experience.

Memphis has quite a bit of talent themselves, led by an elite scoring guard in PJ Haggerty and versatile big man Dain Dainja. Uncertainty surrounding Tyrese Hunter’s health and an extremely difficult path out of the first weekend could make it smart to fade Memphis in favor of other teams.