Ace Bailey Career-Game Scouting Report: How Rutgers' freshman stamped his authority in win vs Nebraska 

The beginning of Big 10 conference play has coincided with Ace Bailey’s best stretch yet. After an up-and-down start to his freshman season, the five-star wing has played stellar basketball against conference opponents. His growth to this point climaxed in Rutgers’ win over Nebraska on Jan 16.

In Ace Bailey’s strongest game of his career to this point, Bailey tallied 24 points (8 of 16), 11 rebounds, four assists, three turnovers, one steal and three blocks. He showcased his potential as an off-ball scoring option with some of the best passing of his young career. These are the types of performances that make Bailey look like a top-three pick in a strong draft, but can he sustain this level of play?

Ace Bailey scouting reports for game vs Nebraska

Breaking down Bailey's offense

Bailey’s 3-point shooting flashes have been the most impressive moments he’s put on tape so far this season. It’s exceptionally rare for a 6-foot-10 18-year-old to drain shots off of the dribble and off of movement like Bailey can. He flashed this ability against Nebraska, converting on four of his seven attempts from deep.

Just as he does from the mid-range, Bailey can pull up and create shots off of the dribble at a special level. While he’s most comfortable shooting off the dribble from the intermediate, the pull-up 3-point shot may determine his ultimate ceiling. On this play, Bailey dribbles between his legs, steps back, and drills the contested triple:

He’s a major threat to shoot the ball in transition before defenses set and pay him full attention. When he’s dribbling in the open floor, Bailey will rise for quick pull-ups in early offense:

Bailey’s glimpses of off-ball shooting might be even more startling than his off-dribble shooting. As rare as it is for players as tall as Bailey to hit off-dribble shots, it might be even rarer for them to run around screens and shoot like Duncan Robinson. According to Synergy, Bailey’s made 42.1% (8 of 19) of his off-screen threes this season.

At the end of the first quarter against Nebraska, the Scarlet Knights ran a play they’d used before to manufacture a shot for Bailey. It’s generally a challenge for righty shooters to move to their right and shoot, but Bailey twists in midair to align and hits a ridiculously contested shot:

Defenses know how dangerous Bailey’s off-movement shooting can be and sell out to stop it. Bailey already weaponizes his shooting gravity to create open shots, as he does in this next clip. The defender flies by at Bailey’s pump fake on the catch, allowing Bailey to calmly set for a wide-open three.

Bailey’s off-ball shooting helps fuel his driving game. He’s not a potent self-creator to the basket, but he can attack tilted defenses and hard closeouts. Bailey made three of his four shots at the rim against Nebraska including this filthy euro step in transition, weaponizing his long strides to score at the hoop:

His ability to pressure the rim in the half-court will be one of Bailey’s primary swing skills. He struggles to consistently make his way downhill, attempting a paltry 14.4% of his half-court shots at the rim, finishing a poor 55.2% of those. Bailey drove to the basket on this play but couldn’t put the ball in the basket:

Off-ball movement has opened up Bailey’s playmaking especially, where he doesn’t have to rely as much on his often loose handle. Bailey had the best passing game of his career against Nebraska, tossing a career-high four assists.

Passing has been a major struggle for Bailey this season; he’s posted an exceptionally low 0.5 assist-to-turnover ratio and 6.6% assist rate. The ball moved quickly against the Cornhuskers, though, especially as an off-ball player.

When defenses close out hard on Bailey, he has the vision to locate open teammates. On this play, Bailey drives off of the catch into space and bounces a pass to his big in great post position:

Bailey is especially effective in driving and passing on the baseline, where he can pass over the defense with his height and length. His sheer size allows him to see and access passes most other players can’t. Multiple Nebraska defenders converge on Bailey on this baseline drive, and he finds the wide-open shooter on the kickout:

On this next baseline drive, Bailey passes over the defense on the jump. It’s another way for him to access passing windows and create open shots for his teammates:

As the season progresses, Bailey has been more willing to attempt tight window passes. Even though he turns it over on this next play, Bailey puts encouraging vision on display by seeing and trying this tight window pass:

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Breaking down Bailey's defense

Though his passing was much better than most of his games against Nebraska, Bailey’s stellar defensive performance has become somewhat regular. He’s notched four or more stocks (steals + blocks) in three of his five conference games, flashing his impressive playmaking instincts.

Bailey makes some NBA-quality rotations sliding down to protect the rim. He reads this drive early and moves quickly and fluidly down to explode and block this shot at the hoop with his weak left hand:

Despite his lack of core and lower body strength — Bailey is just 18, after all —defended the post stoutly on multiple occasions. He forces a turnover on this play, not letting a bigger, older player overwhelm him down low:

Bailey blocks a shot guarding the post in this play, flashing his excellent length and timing as a rim protector. Even when stronger players carve position on Bailey, he can recover with his height, length and standing reach to make plays:

He’s not a perfect defender, but he's still prone to lapses and unnecessary fouls like most teenagers. However, his upside on that end is clear. If Bailey can continue managing two-way performances like this, it’s easy to see him contending for a top-three pick in this stacked 2025 NBA Draft.

All Stats via Bart Torvik and Synergy