Cooper Flagg NBA and WNBA comp: Duke superstar has shades of Jayson Tatum, Breanna Stewart and Pascal Siakam

Comparisons have become a staple of draft coverage across all sports. They’re an easy way for fans to understand a player’s strengths, weaknesses and potential ceiling. But comparisons can be more harmful than they are useful, misleading folks given how unique each player is.

When making comparisons, are we comparing a prospect to a current pro or how that pro looked in college? Is the comparison based on playstyle, impact, implicit biases or something else? Do the comparisons make sense based on the draft position?

Just like most prospects, comparisons for Cooper Flagg can be tough to devise. Most of the widespread comparisons miss the mark wildly, either due to aesthetic and availability biases or a lack of specificity. We’ll often need multiple players to form a cogent prospect comparison.

When I think about Flagg’s current and his future, three players come to mind — Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics, Pascal Siakam of the Indiana Pacers and Breanna Stewart of the New York Liberty. Tatum shares quite a few similarities to Flagg in terms of their strengths and weaknesses as prospects. Stewart and Siakam can help us imagine a potential role approximation in the pros for Flagg.

Cooper Flagg and Jayson Tatum: A detailed comparison

Let’s take a look at Flagg and Tatum’s statistical profiles during their year in college:

There are quite a few similarities present here. At similar heights, Flagg and Tatum both handled the ball a bunch, drew lots of fouls, created turnovers on the defensive end and attempted a similar volume of 3-point attempts. Tatum’s efficiency from all over the floor was higher and Flagg’s passing numbers are stronger, but it’s easy to see the parallels.

This Tatum scouting report from NBA Draft Net on his weaknesses reminds of the concerns many have for Flagg. He struggled to score consistently in the pick-and-roll, create against stronger players and shoot consistently. Of course, these are all aspects Tatum improved on greatly in the pros.

Indicators like 3-point volume, touch and mid-range shooting are all much more powerful signs than raw efficiency. Especially given Flagg’s positive shooting sample dating back to high school and AAU, we shouldn’t worry much about his early season efficiency when compared to Tatum at Duke, who wasn’t highly efficient himself.

Given Tatum’s current superstardom, it’s easy to forget Tatum’s limitations as a teenager. He routinely lost his handle, struggled to create consistent separation and turned the ball over. But Tatum always flashed impressive off-dribble shooting and power driving, something he’s maximized in the pros.

Flagg shares many of these strengths and weaknesses. Duke has thrown him into the fire as a creator, deploying him as a high-usage perimeter creator. His lack of ball control and creative counters limits him, but we see Flagg’s elite explosion and shooting touch help him score and draw fouls at a high clip.

Tatum and Flagg aren’t exactly identical prospects. Tatum’s handle was always a bit looser and more dynamic and his shooting was stronger. But Flagg is a much better playmaker at the same stage with some extra size and explosiveness to make up the difference. Flagg is a significantly better defensive prospect, even thought Tatum developed into a star defensive wing.

Plenty of people have questioned Flagg’s ability to lead a championship-level offense as a primary, a comparison scouts levied with Tatum back in 2017. While Tatum isn’t a top-level primary offensive engine, he’s become a perennial top-five player in the NBA on the back of his elite wing shooting, playmaking chops and defensive ability. He’s made massive strides as a finisher and a handler throughout his career, something Flagg could emulate.

Flagg is far from guaranteed to develop into a Tatum-like player. That’s an extremely high bar to reach, but it’s well within Flagg’s realm of possibility. At his highest range of outcomes, his ease of accessing his pull-up combined with that size, feel and defense could make him the most valuable player on a title winner, rendering him a worthy number-one pick in nearly any draft.

Why Cooper Flagg's should model his career to Breanna Stewart's

Even if Flagg reaches that ceiling, his exact usage and deployment will likely differ from Tatum's. He’ll probably spend more time than Tatum inside the arc trading some spot-ups and pick-and-rolls for scoring on post-ups and rolls to the cup. Breanna Stewart, a WNBA legend, thrives as a top player in the league with inside-out offense, floor spacing and special defensive impact.

Relative to the league, Stewart is a bit taller and longer than Flagg will be compared to NBA bigs. Stewart accesses her jumper from anywhere on the floor, scores over smaller defenders down low and can pass and shoot out of the pick-and-roll when needed. She’s thrived on high-level teams throughout her career, working off of elite guard creators and bigs like Sabrina Ionescu, Tina Charles, Jewell Loyd and Sue Bird.

What similarities do Pascal Siakam and Cooper Flagg share?

Pascal Siakam shares Flagg’s penchant for spinning defenders out of whack. Primarily a mid-range and post-up scorer in college, Siakam developed into an all-around offensive option in the pros. He’s a highly efficient interior and 3-point scorer, spending the majority of possessions (20.8%) posting up.

It’s important to conceive the range of outcomes of draft prospects when projecting forward. Jayson Tatum wasn’t guaranteed to develop into a superstar. He could have stagnated as a passer and handler if he landed on a different team or had other factors broken the wrong way. How prospects develop isn’t destiny or fate, but rather probability and odds.

Flagg may never develop into the primary scoring option on a great team. It’s possible to imagine his handle holding him back and Flagg never becoming as efficient as he can be. But that possibility of primary creation sits firmly within Flagg’s upper range of possibilities. We’ve seen enough examples of elite two-way talents returning top-pick value even considering their limitations.