Croatia vs Greece Prediction and Preview FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament Final | July 7, 2024

Ivica Zubac's Croatia and Giannis Antetokounmpo's Greece square off on Sunday for a 2024 Paris Olympics berth at Peace and Friendship Stadium. Croatia enters this game with a 2-1 record, while Greece is unbeaten. The Croats beat the Dominican Republic 80-77 in the semifinals, while the Greeks beat Luka Doncic's Slovenia 96-68.

It will be the first meeting between Greece and Croatia since their 2022 EuroBasket group phase clash, which Giannis and Co. won 89-85. They've been nearly evenly matched in their 11 games all-time, with Greece holding a 6-5 advantage.

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Croatia vs. Greece odds, preview and prediction

Money line: Croatia +185, Greece -235

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Croatia vs. Greece preview

Croatia has been a solid defensive team in the Qualifiers. However, their offense has been clunky. They've scored 91.3 points a game across three outings, shooting 52.3%, including a subpar 33.8% from 3. Their strongest suit has been to score off second-chance points, with their solid rebounding ability. Ivica Zubac and Dario Saric will have bigger roles to play, especially against the in-form Giannis Antetokounmpo.

Meanwhile, Greece has been excellent on both ends but more on offense. Scoring 99.3 points a game, Giannis and Co. have shot 58.8%, including 45.7% from 3. They are scoring 22 points off turnovers and 18 fast break points per game, which is Croatia's weakness.

The Greeks haven't been as efficient in the rebounding department, with only 23.3 boards a game, so that's an area they need to improve at to contain Croatia's paint and second-chance scoring opportunities.

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Croatia vs. Greece Starting Lineups

Croatia

PG - Goran Filipovic, SG - Jaleen Smith, SF - Mario Hezonja, PF - Dario Saric, C - Ivica Zubac

PG - Nick Calathes, SG - Thomas Walkup, SF - Kostas Papanikolau, PF - Giannis Antetokounmpo, C - Georgios Papagiannis

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Croatia vs. Greece Prediction

The Greeks are the favorites to win after going 3-0 in the tournament. They are also coming off a dominant win over Luka Doncic and Co., where they looked unbeatable with their high activity on both ends of the court.

Greece's offense has been too good, and their strengths are exactly the weaknesses of Croatia, who've had a rocky form in the qualifiers. They will also have the home support behind them.

Ivica Zubac and Dario Saric's defense against Giannis Antetokounmpo will dictate the result of this game. The twin-tower pairing has worked out well defensively, so there's optimism they can provide some resistance.