Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings Prediction and Betting Tips for NBA Play-In Tournament | Apr. 16, 2025

The Dallas Mavericks look to push their improbable run another step when they visit the Sacramento Kings on Wednesday. Dallas seemed on the verge of an early vacation until the Phoenix Suns’ late-season collapse helped it grab a play-in tournament ticket. The Mavericks hoped to pull off an upset in Sacramento even without injured star Kyrie Irving.

Meanwhile, the Kings cannot afford a slip against an opponent they beat thrice in the regular season. They have been dominant against the Mavericks, but the stakes are much higher in their next meeting. The winner goes on to meet the Memphis Grizzlies in another do-or-die game, while the loser gets an early offseason.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings Preview, Prediction, Predicted Starting Lineups and Betting Tips

Moneyline: Mavericks (+160) vs Kings (-190)

Odds: Mavericks (+4.5) vs. Kings (-4.5)

Total (O/U): Mavericks (o215.5 -110) vs. Kings (u215.5 -110)

Editor’s Note: The odds could change closer to the game. The odds listed were as per available information at the time of writing.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings preview

The Dallas Mavericks have struggled to contain the Sacramento Kings’ relentless rebounding. In three losses to the Kings, the Mavs got crushed in the rebounding battle 145-106, including a staggering 40-14 on the offensive glass. The disparity in rebounding makes Anthony Davis even more crucial for Dallas to have a chance of pulling off an upset.

AD wants to prove himself to Mavs fans still suffering from the Luka Doncic trade. He cannot replace the Slovenian, but the former LA Lakers star can ease their pain with an impressive performance. Davis, Daniel Gafford and the Mavs' front line must keep Domantas Sabonis, the NBA’s leading rebounder, from controlling the boards.

The Kings are familiar with AD after years of battling him as a member of the Lakers. They know how to go against him. Sacramento has the healthier roster and is at home in a do-or-die game. The Kings know Davis can lead an upset win if they get complacent, slacken their rebounding and commit too many errors.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings predicted starting lineups

Mavericks

PG: Spencer Dinwiddie | SG: Klay Thompson | SF: Naji Marshall | PF: P.J. Washington | C: Anthony Davis

Kings

PG: Keon Ellis | SG: Zach LaVine | SF: DeMar DeRozan | PF: Keegan Murray | C: Domantas Sabonis

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Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings betting tips

Anthony Davis averaged 24.5 points per game this season against the Kings. When he faces his rivals next time, he will not have LeBron James occupying the Kings’ attention on defense. AD has been superb but might not top his 26.5 (O/U) points prop. The Kings would rather have somebody beat them than give Davis that chance.

Zach LaVine averaged 19.5 PPG against the Mavericks while settling into his new role with the Kings. The dunk artist has caught fire this month, averaging 27.4 PPG behind 51.9% efficiency, including 53.2% from deep.

LaVine could keep his high-scoring game going against Dallas’ hobbled defense and top his 23.5 (O/U) points prop.

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Dallas Mavericks vs Sacramento Kings prediction

Domantas Sabonis and Anthony Davis often cancel each other out, which will give the advantage to the home team. The Sacramento Kings have a healthier crew than the Dallas Mavericks, and they’ll be playing in front of a rabid crowd.

Sacramento likely moves on to another do-or-die game with a win that beats the -4.5 spread.