Can any of these big men carry their teams to the Finals in June?
15. Atlanta Hawks
The good news: Coming into the season, the Hawks had three players (Josh Smith, Al Horford, Joe Johnson) with a legitimate case for the Eastern Conference All Star team. The Heat and Celtics are the only other teams in the East that could say that.
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The bad news: Since then they have lost Al Horford for the what will likely be the entire season to a shoulder injury.
The good news: After coming out of nowhere and playing great in place of Kirk Hinrich at point guard during last year’s playoffs, Jeff Teague has built off of last season’s success by averaging 13-2-6. Not bad for a 23 year old point guard who they only have to pay 1.5 million.
The bad news: They will continue to be financially hamstringed by the anchor that is the 107, 375,500 dollars remaining on last five year’s of Joe Johnson’s contract. Just think: In 2015, when Joe Johnson will be 34 years old and be worth roughly 5 million/year, the Hawks are scheduled to pay him 25 million. Yikes.
The good news: They handed Miami one of their few losses this season on January 2nd, in a game highlighted by Tracey McGrady turning back the clock and scoring 13 points in the fourth quarter.
The bad news: They followed that victory up by showing their lack of killer instinct and sense of urgency by losing to the Wade and Lebron-less Heat in overtime on January 5th.
The bad news: Although there is a lot to like about this team on paper, the story for the 2012 Hawks will be the same as the last 3 years – good enough to beat mediocre teams, not good enough to beat elite teams in the playoffs.
14. Orlando Magic
This is a dopey ranking for the obvious reasons of a) We don’t know if Dwight Howard is staying or going, b) when he will go, if he does and c) if a similar situation to the trade debacle in Denver with Carmelo Anthony will develop during this season in Orlando.
If you told me right now that Dwight Howard just signed a six year extension with Orlando, then I’d move Orlando somewhere in the top 10. But for know, this is where they stand among other title contenders.
One other issue I want to cover with the Magic…
Ryan Anderson is the NBA’s best kept secret. Last season he was the darling of the basketball statistics community. Every dork from me to ESPN’s John Hollinger raved about his per-minute stats and efficiency. Now? He’s only averaging 17.5-7 and shooting 42% from 3. To put that in perspective, that is as many points per game as Dirk Nowitzski, more rebounds than Dequan Blair (keep in mind he’s playing in the same front court as the league’s most prolific rebounder), and a better 3 point percentage than Kevin Durant.
Here’s the 64 million dollar question: If you’re GM Otis Smith, do you keep Anderson and hope he continues to develop while playing with Howard, or trade him while his stock is high and try to pair another All Star with Dwight Howard. Of course, the right answer is whatever Dwight Howard wants because they have to do what’s necessary to keep him, and If I’m Dwight Howard, I’m telling Otis Smith not to hesitate to include Anderson in a trade for proven All-Star or borderline All-Star. What team wouldn’t want a 23 power forward who rebounds at a high rate and stretches the defense with his range? They would just have to wait around for a player to have a fight with his coach or quit on his team, and then boom, they jump out of the bushes and offer up Ryan Anderson for him. Monta Ellis, Kevin Martin, and even Josh Smith would be compatible fits in Orlando.
13. Indiana Pacers
This team has become my second favorite team to root for this season. They have no stars, no flare, and no “Holy crap I have to see this guy play” players, just a bunch of over-achieving (that’s not an insult, by the way) players who play hard every night, forget about personal stats, and accept their clearly defined niche for the greater good of the team. This team could not be more perfect for the state of Indiana.
I know you won’t believe me until it happens, but this team can stand up to and could beat any Eastern Conference team in a 7 game series not named Miami. They legitimately go 10 deep (Granger, Hibbert, Hansbrough, Collison George, West, Hill, Jones, Foster, Amundson) and currently have seven guys averaging double-digit points.
One last thing: I want to keep this short, but Steve Nash getting traded to Indiana for Darren Collison, Jeff Foster, and a first round pick (would be great trade for both teams) would be the single most fascinating story of this NBA season. Steve Nash would be a perfect fit for that team, become Pacer’s fans most beloved player since Reggie Miller, and would instantly turn Indiana into a title contender and the third best team in the east. Nash would single handedly raise every Pacer’s game another level—run the pick-and-roll/pop with David West, throw alley-oops to Roy Hibbert, and set up shooters like Granger, George, and Hill just right. Basketball Gods, if you can hear me, please make it happen.
12. Denver Nuggets
Given their many similarities, I thought it would be appropriate to give you a head-to-head break down of the Western Conference’s two most dangerous sleepers.
(It is important to note that three players who are under contract with Denver – Kenyon Martin, Wilson Chandler, and JR Smith– signed contracts without opt-outs with Chinese teams during the lockout and are stuck there until March. I didn’t factor them into my breakdown because there is no guarantee that a) they will come back to play NBA basketball, and b) they will play for Denver if they do.)
Backcourt
Denver’s back court: Ty Lawson, Aaron Afflalo, Rudy Fernandez, Andre Miller.
Portland’s backcourt: Raymond Felton, Wesley Matthews, Jamal Crawford.
Denver’s one-two point guard punch (Lawson and Miller, who combine to average 27.5 points, 12.5 assists, and 3.5 turnovers) has a big edge over Portland’s sole point guard, Raymond Felton, who is averaging a career-high in turnovers this season with 2.9 per game. It should be noted that Felton was traded from Denver to Portland for Andre Miller last June.
At shooting guard, Denver is able to rotate Afflalo and Fernandez and maximize each player’s best attributes – Afflalo’s perimeter defense and Fernandez’s shooting. Portland’s Wesley Matthews remains one of the league’s most undervalued players and former Sixth Man of the Year, Jamal Crawford’s offensive production is the key to Portland’s long term success.
Portland has more talent per player, but Denver’s depth and Raymond Felton’s slow start makes Denver the winner by a hair. Edge: Denver
Front Court
Denver’s frontcourt: Danillo Gallanari, Nene, Al Harrington, Timofey Mozgov, Corey Brewer, Kenneth Faried
Portland’s frontcourt: LaMarcus Aldridge, Gerald Wallace, Kurt Thomas, Nicolas Batum, Marcus Camby
Denver’s front court is filled with scorers and predominantly offensive players. Danillo Gallinari is starting to reach his potential as a scorer, Nene remains one of the league’s most skilled offensive centers, Al Harrrington can stretch the defense with his 3-point range, while Mozgov and Faried clean up and do the dirty work.
The centerpiece in Portland’s front line is Aldridge, who has quietly emerged as one of the league’s 10 best and most unappreciated players. Wallace and Batum are lengthy, adept defenders who Portland can match-up with guys like Kobe, Durant, and Dirk in a playoff series. Thomas and Camby are both tested veterans who provide defense, rebounding, and experience.
Portland’s front court gets the edge because of their ability to rebound, defend inside and outside, and because Aldridge is considerably better than anyone on Denver. Edge: Portland
More comparisons between the two and who gets the edge:
Offense: Denver
Defense: Portland
Rebounding: Portland
Coaching: Denver
Mascot: Denver
Crunch time scoring: Portland
Half time shows: Denver
Home court advantage: Denver
Soccer Moms: Portland
Overall: Portland