Kevin Durant and his team, the Phoenix Suns, are currently engaged in a heated battle against the Denver Nuggets in the second round of the NBA playoffs. The Nuggets had protected home court by winning the first two games. In Game 3, Nuggets superstars Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic both put up over 30 points, but it didn't prove to be enough.
Kevin Durant's 39 points and Devin Booker's 47 points helped the Suns hold serve in their first home game of the series. Losing the game would have put the Suns in a 0-3 hole. This would have been catastrophic, considering no team has come back from that deficit. Teams leading 3-0 have a perfect 116-0 record. But what about teams who are down 1-2?
In every seven-game playoff series in NBA history, teams trailing 1-2 have a record of 73-253. That is, teams with a 1-2 deficit in a seven-game series have gone on to win approximately 22% of the time. This doesn't seem that bad on the surface, but things start to look more bleak if explored further.
Most of the instances are of home teams who lost two out of the first three games. Since the team with home court advantage is the higher seed and is usually the favorite, it isn't too surprising that quite a few of them have erased 1-2 deficits.
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On the other hand, away teams which are down 1-2 have a much harder road ahead of them. Away teams have a record of 32-191 when facing a 1-2 deficit. That is, they win only around 17% of the time. We don't need to gotoo far back in time to find the last instance. Kevin Durant's former team Golden State Warriors overcame a 1-2 deficit as the away team in the first round of the 2023 playoffs against the Sacramento Kings.
Kevin Durant's record when down 1-2
Prior this series, Durant has been involved in 10 playoff series in which his team has gone down 1-2. His teams have a 4-6 record when staring down a 1-2 hole. Two of the four wins were when his team was the higher seed. Both of the wins came against the Memphis Grizzlies, in the second round in 2011, and the first round in 2014.
Without home-court advantage, Kevin Durant's teams are 2-4 when they have been down 1-2 in a seven-game series. Both times it was the San Antonio Spurs who were at the other end.
In the 2012 Western Conference Finals, the #2 seed Oklahoma City Thunder faced off against the #1 seed San Antonio Spurs. After falling down 1-2, the trio of Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden rallied to win the next three games and close out the series in six games. Durant scored 97 points in the the three games, including 34 points and 14 rebounds in the decisive Game 6.
The other instance was in the second round in 2016 when the #3 seed Thunder went up against the #2 seed Spurs. The Spurs had won 67 games that season, 12 more than the Thunder. Once again, Durant and his team stepped up when the going got tough and closed out the series in six games. Durant put up 41 points in Game 4 and 37 points in Game 6 to defeat the Spurs and advance to the Western Conference Finals. The series would have been more memorable for Durant, if not for what happened in the next round. The Thunder famously went up 3-1 against the #1 seed Golden State Warriors before losing the last three games and crashing out.
Kevin Durant's career is testimony to the fact that he performs his best when his back is against the wall. Game 4 against the Nuggets on Sunday will be decisive in showing whether he can pull a rabbit out of the hat one more time. If the Suns can even the series, it will be anyone's game at that point.
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