Have the Milwaukee Bucks found the defensive answer to James Harden?

The Milwaukee Bucks soundly defeated the Houston Rockets 108-94, solidifying their position on the #1 seed and all but slamming the door shut on James Harden’s hopes of being named MVP over Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks fell behind early, but came back with solid defence and then finished the game off in the third quarter with a barrage of 3’s led by Eric Bledsoe. Antetokounmpo had 19 points on 7-15 shooting, while Harden struggled with just 23 points on 9-26 shooting.

But perhaps the most interesting takeaway from this game was the way Milwaukee Bucks played defence against Harden, with this screenshot from the first quarter summing things up:

As you can see, George Hill is standing well to Harden’s left and is barely even in front of him, with Hardwood Paroxysm noting later that Bucks defenders were basically behind him. Defenders obviously cover Harden’s stronger left all the time, but the Bucks took it to absurd levels and all but allowed Harden a free lane into the basket. And as Mike Prada with SB Nation detailed in January, the Bucks used this same approach then and pulled off another win despite Harden scoring 42 points.

What Milwaukee did

The Bucks’ game plan was simple: deny Harden his devastating step back three, limit his ability to drive to the left, and give him a free rein to drive to the right as much as he wants. Such a game plan seems ridiculous at first. By staying to Harden’s left instead of the front, he has a free road to the basket.

But what Milwaukee does is they plant a big man right next to the rim, mainly the 7 footer Brook Lopez. Lopez stayed right next to the rim, making it harder for Harden to finish there or lob it to Clint Capela for the alley-oop. The catch is that when combined with the perimeter defender’s approach, Harden has nearly free reign to shoot or pass from the three point line to the restricted circle.

As NBA fans know, the Rockets and most NBA teams do not look for the mid-range shot. Even when presented for the mid-range shot, Harden would often dribble out, looking for an open three-point shooter or attempting to charge into the rim with his weaker right hand. If he dribbled out, then the Bucks can try the same approach again and the Rockets will be forced to take a tougher shot as the shot clock expires. If Harden charges in, then he is forced to finish over length, often with his weaker hand.

Prada points out that other teams have tried something similar, most notably the Spurs when they defeated the Rockets in the 2017 NBA Playoffs. But by this unique approach, the Bucks have denied Harden the three-point line and the rim, limiting his and Houston’s offensive firepower.

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How Houston can respond

Does this mean that every team can position a defender to Harden’s left and the MVP candidate will be helpless? Of course not, and there are a few things to consider about this approach.

First, Milwaukee has the personnel to pull a manoeuvre like this off. They have elite and above all disciplined wing defenders in Hill and Bledsoe who will not move too quickly, and a giant in Brook Lopez who can cut off the rim. Some teams like the Utah Jazz may be able to replicate Milwaukee’s defensive approach, but others like Golden State may struggle as they do not have a strong defensive centre or overeager wing defenders.

Second, an additional weakness to betting on this approach on top of allowing Harden to do floaters is that it gives him more open passing lanes with no defender blocking his vision. A major reason for Houston’s defeat is that PJ Tucker and Eric Gordon went a combined 1-13 from three, with the Rockets shooting just 30% for the night while Milwaukee went off. Maybe Milwaukee and other teams would rather bet on Houston’s role players making open 3’s than Harden making step backs, but it remains a clear risk.

The Rockets also committed other mistakes, notably giving up live ball turnover after turnover in the second quarter though the Bucks should get credit for being active and having the length to take advantage.

And if these two teams match up in the NBA Finals, there is no denying that the Bucks would be a serious challenge for the Rockets. People underestimate the Bucks especially since no one expected them to be this good, but they should be the favourites against any non-Golden State team.

Ultimately, Houston cannot overreact from this one defeat. Milwaukee used an interesting approach, and Houston can come up with counters. They can get more shooters on the floor, rely more on Chris Paul who is more confident in his mid-range stroke. But the Rockets should worry about improving their team, execution, and defence, instead of focusing on this one defence which they may not encounter in the Western Conference playoffs.