He who controls the past, controls the future: End of season awards and playoffs preview

Every team played 82 games this season. As they should have. This is necessary to have been said because approximately a year ago, we had just completed a 66-game regular season played at a frantic pace and were headed into the playoffs at the same pace.

And the pace and challenges that come with a shortened season gave rise to the NBA’s teams most equipped with energy, health, youth and talent. So the Finals came down to the Heat vs. the Thunder, two teams featuring the league’s two best players and a style that left opponents huffing and puffing behind.

The man who reigned above all, and the man who controlled the past, was LeBron James. LeBron enjoyed his banner year last season, winning an MVP Award, his first championship, and the ensuing Finals MVP award. 2012 was his.

We are now in the present, almost a year later. LeBron and the Heat are looking like favourites again. Durant and the Thunder are looking like contenders again. But at the conclusion of a full-length season, we also saw a couple other interesting names crop up and be heard across the league.

So now we stand at the crossroads between what we know about the past and what we can predict about the future. As the great George Orwell wrote through the slogan of Ingsoc in Ninety Eighty-Four: “He who controls the past controls the future. He who controls the present controls the past.” The past and the present have been controlled by LeBron and Miami. Will the same hold true for the future?

Here are my end-of-season awards for 2012-13.

MVP: LeBron James

Make it four times in five years. If LeBron hadn’t won a championship last season, his frantic pace of regular season MVP awards would actually be a blemish than a compliment, and he would continue to be called the one legendary player who couldn’t turn dominance into eventual success. But the 2012 championship has us all revising history. LeBron is undoubtedly the greatest player of this generation, and in 2012-13, he has enjoyed the greatest individual season since Shaquille O’Neal back in 2000. Yes, he missed several games at the end simply because the team didn’t need him after clinching the top spot, but it doesn’t take away from his MVP campaign. 26.8 points, career-high 8 rebounds, 7.3 assists on a league high +32.18 efficiency rating and career-best, a blistering 56.5 % shooting from the field. How about that streak of 30+ points on over 60 percent shooting? How about that 27-game winning streak? Kevin Durant had an incredible season, joining the 50-40-90 club. Carmelo Anthony was on fire, leading the league in scoring and making the Knicks into contenders again. Chris Paul and Tony Parker marshalled their teams to outstanding records. But this is LeBron’s award now.

Defensive Player of the Year: Marc Gasol

The Grizzlies are the NBA’s best defensive team, and it has been mostly due to the efforts of Gasol, Tony Allen, and Mike Conley, to be joined by Tayshaun Prince later. But Gasol is the man in the middle who really made a difference, changing shots, blocking shots, grabbing boards, and generally being a menace to your favourite basket-attackers. I’d give some love to Joakim Noah too, but he missed too many games this season. Paul George is a future DPOY in the making. But Gasol is my favourite here.

Rookie of the Year: Damian Lillard

Let’s give a ‘good job, good effort’ applause to the contenders: Anthony Davis, and Bradley Beal. But after a guy leads all rookies in points, assists, minutes, and cojones, we may as well hand him the trophy and step back.

Coach of the Year: Eric Spoelstra

Surely what is going to be the most hotly debated award. The contenders are aplenty. Gregg Popovich is a contender for as long as he’s a head coach, each year, every year, and once again he helped make Spurs into one of the strongest teams in the league. Mike Woodson reshaped the Knicks offensively and defensively and helped them rise to second place in the East. George Karl made the ‘All-Star-less’ Nuggets into a Western Conference powerhouse with the best home record in the NBA. Lionel Hollins should get some love for his work with the Grizzlies, especially sans the Rudy Gay trade. Tom Thibhodeau continues in the Popovich vein as a coach who can win with a system, not the stars in the system. Props to Doc Rivers and Mark Jackson too. But I think it’s time Spoelstra gets his due. The young coach is blessed with the league’s most formidable lineup, sure. But let’s give him credit for leading the Heat to a franchise best <> wins, including a 27-game winning streak, and finding offensive cohesion between LeBron, Wade and the rest of the players to become the most offensively efficient squad in the league. Congrats Spo.

6th Man of the Year Award: JR Smith

There exists a parallel bizzaro universe where JR Smith matures as a truly reliable NBA backup, becoming the second-best offensive threat in the second-best squad in the East, accepting his role as a 6th man, and turning his erratic shooting sprees into useful shooting sprees. In this world, he becomes the league’s highest bench scorer and wins the 6th man of year award. Now imagine that the bizzaro universe is where we actually live and all that I said above is true. Smith deserves this award, and he will edge Jamal Crawford and Jarrett Jack to win it.

Most Improved Player: James Harden

Like every year, the definition of this award is the most contentious. What are we counting as improved? Going from barely-known to useful, like Larry Sanders and Greivis Vasquez? Or going from useful to completely All-Star level, like James Harden or Jrue Holiday? I’m sure the definition changes every year. But now in Houston, Harden was handed the keys to the offense and a spike in minutes. We all knew he had it in him, but who expected his production to jump from 16.8 ppg and 3.7 apg to 25.9 ppg and 5.8 apg, and in the process Harden becoming an All Star and one of the NBA’s best young players? Sure, Sanders and Holiday have improved, but Harden (thanks to his improved minutes) is the most improved.

All NBA Team

I’m not sure what approach the NBA will take for this, but mine will be to choose players like the NBA made us choose our All Stars: two backcourt players, three frontcourt players. Because really, this was the year of the Small Forwards-turned-Power Forwards. Sorry, Centers.

My All NBA First team:

Chris PaulKobe BryantCarmelo AnthonyLeBron JamesKevin Durant

Here is my All-Defensive First Team:

Tony AllenPaul GeorgeMarc GasolJoakim NoahLeBron James

Playoff Preview

First Round

East

Heat vs. Bucks: HeatKnicks vs. Celtics: KnicksPacers vs. Hawks: PacersNets vs. Bulls: Bulls

West

Thunder vs. Rockets: ThunderSpurs vs. Lakers: SpursNuggets vs. Warriors: NuggetsClippers vs. Grizzlies: Grizzlies

Basically, I have all the top seeds going through, except for the fourth seeds in each conference. I think Chicago (with or without Rose, or even with a hobbled Noah), are built for the playoffs, and it will take something special to stop them. Sorry Brooklyn. In the West, I expect Clippers and Grizzlies to go to seven, but for defense (Grizzlies) to beat offense (Clippers). Heat will sweep Bucks. Thunder and the Spurs to beat Rockers and Lakers (don’t get too excited about 7th place, Lakers fans) to win in five. Knicks to win a hard-fought series over Boston in six, and Pacers to grind out Hawks in six too. Warriors vs. Nuggets will be a fun watch, and I think Stephen Curry can help carry this to seven games. But home court advantage will take the Nuggets through.

Second Round

East

Heat vs. Bulls: HeatKnicks vs. Pacers: Knicks

West

Thunder vs. Grizzlies: ThunderSpurs vs. Nuggets: Spurs

With or without Rose playing for Chicago, Miami will be too good for the Bulls to stop, and the Heat will take revenge against the team that ended their streak. Pacers defense would’ve scared the Knicks in the past, but they have been inconsistent off late and the Knicks have the Eastern Conference’s best player outside of Miami. They will take it in six or seven. Thunder will beat Grizzlies in six and – although the Nuggets will have some bright sparks against the Spurs – Popovich and Duncan will be back in the Conference Finals again.

Conference Finals

Heat vs. Knicks: HeatThunder vs. Spurs: Thunder

The top two in each conference face off in the Conference Finals, and I’m predicting that last year’s winners will be winners this year again. Knicks will take a couple of games against the Knicks on their three-point shooting and Anthony’s brilliance, but Miami will be a force to be reckoned with. Expect LeBron and Wade to carry the Heat to the Finals for the third consecutive year. Out West, the Thunder will outpace the Spurs, who will finally begin to show their age against the talented team from Oklahoma City.

Finals: Heat vs. Thunder

A rematch of the 2012 Finals, and a growing rivalry between LeBron and Durant that will become the closest thing that we have to a Bird-Magic rivalry from the 80s. The Thunder are really, really good, but they have been outclassed in their head-to-head matchups against Miami over their past six games. Durant and Westbrook will give LeBron and Wade a run for their money this time, but I expect the Heat to win in six games and put a cap on their memorable season. Finals MVP: LeBron James, again.

LeBron James and Miami have controlled the past and the present. Will they control the future too?