How can Boston Celtics qualify for Emirates NBA Cup knockouts? All permutations and combinations explored

The Boston Celtics will find out on Tuesday night where they stand in the Emirates NBA Cup. Boston will wait for two games to finish before the tiebreaker rules decide which team earns the East wild card spot. The Celtics have a good chance to advance, but their fate is out of their hands.

In the East Group A, the Orlando Magic will play the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. The Milwaukee Bucks travel to Motor City for a matchup against the Detroit Pistons in the East Group B decider. The winners in both games move on to the knockout round, while the losers compete with the Celtics for the wild card ticket.

The Boston Celtics wasted a golden opportunity to win their group when they lost 117-116 to the Trae Young-less Atlanta Hawks on Nov. 13. Boston and Atlanta had identical 3-1 records after pool play, but the Hawks advanced after they won the head-to-head matchup.

Now, the Joe Mazzulla-coached team waits for the result of two games before knowing their NBA Cup standing.

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NBA Cup tiebreaker rules

Here are the rules for tiebreakers, per the NBA Cup rule book:

1. Point differential in group play
2. Most points scored in group play
3. The 2023-24 regular season record will be the decider if teams remain tied.

In group pool play, the Celtics emerged with a +23 point differential after scoring 482 points and giving up 459. How these numbers fare against fellow group play second-placers after Tuesday’s games will determine their fate in the Eastern Conference wild-card race.

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The Boston Celtics need TWO things to happen to advance to the Emirates NBA Cup quarterfinal

The Boston Celtics need the Orlando Magic to pull a road win or hope the New York Knicks demolish the Magic by 37 points at home.

When either scenario happens, Boston also looks for the Detroit Pistons to beat the Milwaukee Bucks by 5+ points. If it’s the other way around, they need Milwaukee to win by 6+ points against Detroit.

The reason for the specific winning margins is because of the point differential. Before Tuesday’s game, Orlando is +60, while New York is +15. Milwaukee is +29, while Detroit is +28.

Jayson Tatum and company have a rest day on Tuesday, so they will be closely monitoring the results of both games.