How do protected picks work in the NBA? Taking a closer look

With the NBA free agency period nearly upon us, it's no secret that the trade announcements will likely begin to surface before we know it. Considering that, let's take a look at how protected picks work in the NBA.

When two teams agree to a trade that involves draft picks, the team sending the pick may opt to protect it under agreed-upon conditions. For example let's look at the recent three-team trade that saw Marcus Smart land in Memphis Grizzlies, and Kristaps Porzingis land in Boston Celtics.

In this instance, the Celtics received the Golden State Warriors' top-four protected pick in the 2024 NBA draft.

When the 2024 NBA draft lottery takes place, if the Warriors were to land in the top four, their pick would then be returned to them.

Of course, in other instances, as we will likely see, teams could choose to top-10 protect a pick, or even top-15 protect a pick if they wish to.

Looking at the nuances of protected picks

The big question among fans is, ‘what happens when a team gets their protected pick returned to them? Is the team who acquired the pick via trade simply out of luck?’

When looking at the example used above with the Celtics three-team trade with the Wizards and the Grizzlies, the Celtics received the Golden State Warriors top-four protected pick. Should the Warriors wind up landing inside the top four for the 2024 draft, that pick would be returned to them.

In this case, the Celtics would get the Warriors’ first-round draft pick the following year in order to ‘settle’ the pick.

In this case, the Celtics would receive the Warriors 2025 first round pick as compensation for the team losing the pick they traded for. Given that, teams receiving protected picks must do extra due diligence in order to assess whether or not they’ll get to hold on to the pick, or whether the team protecting it would reclaim it.

When looking at the Boston Celtics example again, the team’s front office has weighed whether or not they believe the Warriors will be able to reclaim their 2024 pick.

Considering the team made the playoffs last year, and won the championship the year before, it seems highly unlikely that they fall into the draft lottery and land in the top four. With the recent addition of Chris Paul, and barring any sort of catastrophic injury to a key player like Steph Curry, the Warriors seem poised to continue to remain competitive.

Given that, it seems as though the Celtics are likely, at least statistically, to retain the pick.