Jaden McDaniels and why box scores do not tell the full story

The Minnesota Timberwolves have ascended toward the NBA’s top tier of teams over the last few seasons. Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and (the now-traded) Karl-Anthony Towns will garner most of the spotlight following their second-round exit last season. Jaden McDaniels is as critical to Minnesota’s identity as anyone on the roster, his workmanlike defensive stopping is helping fuel a top-ranked defense. Despite averaging a quiet 10.5 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.4 assists on 57.1% true shooting, McDaniels’s impact lies beyond the box score.

McDaniels made his first All-Defense last year, representing his defensive impact across the last few seasons. He’s one of the NBA’s bonafide best wing stoppers, overwhelming offensive players with his length, size and elite movement skills. The Timberwolves’ defense wouldn’t be the same without his presence.

What sets Jaden McDaniels apart?

His +1.6 Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus ranked him in the 90th percentile. It’s his third straight season with a D-EPM in the 90th percentile or better. His individual defensive efficiency metrics remain strong; McDaniels defended 12.2 shots per game last season, holding opponents to 45.2% shooting. Among all wings last season, that efficiency (minimum 10 shots defended per game) was the 10th lowest in the NBA.

As the NBA’s preeminent screen navigator, McDaniels blows up screening actions like no other wing. NBA offenses rely on screens whether they be picks for a handler to create or off-ball screens to free shooters and cutters. McDaniels’s unique intersection of agility and length lets him bend and contort around screens to stick like glue to offensive players. That alone renders him a valuable chess piece for an elite Minnesota defense which teams often attack with off-ball screens given their overwhelming size.

Perimeter defenders are protecting the rim more frequently as the NBA continues to space out. McDaniels defends the paint at an elite level for a wing, covering ground to block and alter shots when teams drag Minnesota’s bigs out of the paint. Few defenders match McDaniels’s speed and range with sharp instincts to time up blocks and contests.

McDaniels’s 1.8% block rate last season was a career low, but that’s possibly due to Gobert’s defensive dominance. He’s still one of the league’s better weak-side rim protectors. The Timberwolves’ top-ranked defense kept offenses out of the paint (5th in opponent rim frequency) and protected the rim (2nd in opponent rim efficiency) when they eventually reached it. McDaniels contributed to that success on both fronts with his perimeter and interior defensive chops.

His shot-blocking prowess extends to the perimeter, where McDaniels blocks more jumpers than most defenders. He’s an excellent straight isolation defender, sliding his feet and mirroring smaller, quicker players to close gaps. Strong wings can out-muscle McDaniels, but he won’t have to take on those matchups much in Minnesota’s defensive scheme.

Problems around Jaden McDaniels

Players with McDaniels’s ability to generate turnovers will lose by over aggression and he’s no different. Sometimes McDaniels’s gambles for steals and blocks won’t convert and opposing teams will gain easy advantages, but that’s a small price to pay for McDaniels’s overall impact. He’s one of the league’s top echelon defenders even considering his shortcomings.

Jaden McDaniels’s defensive prowess will help him stick around for years to come. His offensive impact will determine McDaniels’s ceiling, though and prove his $131 million deal worth the price tag. He’s stagnated slightly on the offensive end, regressing to below-league-average efficiency after a better 2022-23 season.

In the playoffs, Minnesota’s opponents, notably Dallas played off of McDaniels to sputter the Wolves’ offense. Outside of a few promising games and stretches, McDaniels struggled to release pressure when teams forced the ball away from Anthony Edwards and Karl-Anthony Towns. Hesitation will kill the flow of good offense, destroying precious advantages created by his teammates.

McDaniels shot just 33.7% from deep last season, a stark dropoff from 39.6% the season prior. He shot the ball well from three in the playoffs (42.9%), but McDaniels’s low volume remains the sticking problem. Even when the shots fall, McDaniels’s tendency to hesitate from the perimeter lets defenses deprioritize him. McDaniels shot just above four threes per 75 possessions in the regular and postseason, not nearly enough volume to punish defenses who sag off him.

How can McDaniels step up?

When McDaniels attacks decisively and aggressively off of the catch, positive results follow. He gallops to the rim with his speed and frame and can punish slower defenders closing out as a result. His handle, strength and body control have all improved, even if McDaniels isn’t always comfortable driving with confidence. He’s an excellent finisher when he arrives at the rim, shooting a scorching 78.3% within three feet last year.

He’s a more effective creator with time to set up and deliberate, especially in the mid-range. McDaniels buried 46.6% of his mid-range shots this season, creating separation with his handle and rising over smaller defenders with a high release. His self-creation chops have expanded each season, developing more counters with the ball in his hands. He’s always had the ability to create space for jumpers inside the arc and McDaniels has learned to hone these powers into positive offensive impact.

With Towns shipped off to New York, McDaniels could see his offensive responsibility increase this season. His usage rate has never reached 16% as a pro, so it’s possible we see a substantial jump in offensive load as the Wolves continue searching for creation answers outside of Edwards. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo’s arrival should help this, but McDaniels’s continued evolution into a reliable creator off of the dribble would be enormous for Minnesota.

Jaden McDaniels turned 24 last month, still years away from the peak of his powers. Even if McDaniels never evolves into the offensive player he can become, his defense will keep him in playoff lineups for a long time. He’s a critical component of the Timberwolves’ impregnable defense and should be for years to come. If McDaniels can expand his self-creation game or hone his off-ball scoring, we could see McDaniels developing into an All-Star-level player at some point in his career.