Mark Williams Scouting Report: Lakers' new lob threat for Luka Doncic assessed

When the Lakers traded for Luka Doncic, the consensus opinion was that they couldn’t be done maneuvering before the deadline. Rob Pelinka agreed and sent a package for Charlotte center Mark Williams that included Dalton Knecht and a future first-round pick.

With Davis out of the picture, an already porous Laker frontcourt thinned out further. Williams, who averaged 15.6 points. 9.6 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game on an excellent 63.8% true shooting. in his 23 appearances this season, will provide a major upgrade to Jaxson Hayes and Christian Koloko at the center spot for LA.

How big of an impact will Mark Williams make in a Lakers uniform?

Some may view the third-year big as a high-end starting big man given his counting stats and recent strong performances. Williams will add tons of offensive value, amplified by Doncic and LeBron James, but may struggle to adapt on defense.

Williams’ most valuable tool on both ends of the floor is his sheer size. At 7’0 with an enormous wingspan and standing reach, Williams towers over many other NBA bigs. This helps him thrive as a lob and roll finisher, which Williams has excelled at throughout his career. He’s currently converting 69.1% of his shots at the rim and has hovered around 70% throughout his career.

It shouldn’t take long for Williams to adjust to catching passes for Doncic and James given his experience as LaMelo Ball’s running mate. He’s used to playing with savant-level playmakers throughout games; he ranks in the 97th percentile for roll man frequency and the 100th for cut frequency.

He’s not a perfect finisher, though, as Williams only ranks in the 89th percentile in scoring efficiency at the rim despite his dunking excellence. Williams doesn’t finish with the softest touch, finishing a well below-average 48.9% of his layups this year. Touch limitations force him to score within the restricted area for the most part without much scoring versatility.

Williams won’t need to create or dribble much, though outside of basic dribble handoffs. Doncic and James as pick-and-roll operators slice defenses for easy layup passes and will help bloat Williams’ already solid numbers. The volume of second chances he creates for his team matters; Williams sports an elite 12.4% offensive rebounding rate. He’ll tap the ball around before it lands with a teammate like he’s playing with children.

That offensive rebounding has helped Williams boost his passing numbers this season, though most of his assists come from kickouts on rebounds and dribble handoffs. Still, this playmaking jump — his assist rate up from 5.9% last season to 16.8% while decreasing turnovers — exemplifies his improved comfort on the perimeter and second-chance creation.

Mark William's offensive talent is nothing to scoff at but his health might be a concern

Williams will succeed on offense as a Laker. He’s in too comfortable an environment not to, even if he may not blossom into a star like Davis. His defensive production, though, is far from a guarantee. Williams has struggled immensely on the defensive end this season — his -2.3 Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus is the seventh-lowest mark of all NBA players.

Specific defensive metrics back this up. Despite Williams’ strong 4.5% block rate, opponents shoot 2.4% better than their average when he defends at the basket. His tendency to jump at fakes and head nods, paired with solid but not elite vertical athleticism, can make it tough for him to recover from a compromised position.

Unfortunately, Williams’ lower-body injuries seem to have slowed him down on the perimeter. He’s not nearly as mobile as he once was, struggling to cover space. This limits him to mostly deep-drop coverage and off-ball roaming on defense, leaving him without the flexibility to defend higher up.

Despite his problems, Williams does block shots effectively and his presence at the basket can hopefully help LA raise its defensive upgrade. He’s a significant upgrade over their current center personnel, which says more about the roster than it does about Williams. The 23-year-old big could still improve on that end in a much more competitive environment than Charlotte.

To foster these necessary developments, Williams must stay on the floor. He’s played in a total of 83 games across his career and missed 22 this season already. He’ll need reps to develop through mistakes and grow comfortable and can only receive those if his health cooperates.

Risks and why despite defensive concerns, Lakers can win now

The Lakers incurred notable risk in trading for Williams, sending out a promising rookie in Knecht and a valuable unprotected first-round pick, even if it’s far in the future. It’s a bet on Williams to remain healthy and spark the Lakers’ offense into overdrive while increasing the floor of the defense.

If luck favors Williams and the Lakers, he should offer perfect complementary play for his stars. The Lakers’ offense will look completely alien with Doncic running the show and James as his complement. Davis handled the ball frequently for the Lakers but Williams likely won’t take on that usage.

High volume pick and roll offense with some JJ Redick wrinkles can win in the NBA and Doncic is the clearest example. He’s effectively a walking top-five offense and thrives with rim-running bigs like Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. Williams can emulate those players in some ways.

Williams likely won’t fix LA’s defense, which had been dominating before the trade, ranking fourth in defensive rating over the previous two weeks. Their defensive environment is stronger than Charlotte’s, but their lack of wing and backcourt defense won’t help.

If any team can lean on offense in pursuit of a title, it’s one led by Luka Doncic and LeBron James. Strengthening an already potent offense is an understandable approach. The 2023 title-winning Nuggets placed outside of the top 15 in regular season defensive rating.

Any future ramifications of the trade don’t change the fact that the Lakers are undisputably better after the fact. Williams might not vault the Lakers into the top tier of title contenders, but he’ll help point the needle in that direction.