Match Preview: Denver Nuggets vs. Boston Celtics

The All-Star weekend is over, and now it is time to get serious again. The bidding is for teams to figure out their final priorities and strategies. The time is to up the ante, as the play-offs aren’t far away, and now we are looking at the real business end of the season. 30-odd games left, and many things still to be decided: Play-off berths, final tweaks and changes to the rosters, possible revamps and metamorphosis of the styles and philosophies.

And to kick-start the league after the All-Star break, we have the much anticipated match-up between the Celtics and the Nuggets. Much anticipated not because of any inveterate rivalry between the two franchises, but merely because of the venerated and overwhelming thriller that the two teams played out in their last encounter. Many have called the triple overtime game between the two teams, that the Celtics won 118-114, as the greatest regular season game of the season so-far. In many ways, it just was always supposed to be special.

The primal reason why the match-up is so enthralling, because it is a match-up between two very different coaches and coaching ideologies. George Karl may have revamped and changed the dimensions of the league with his version of the system and the run-and-game style of basketball. The Miami Heat, the Knicks, the Clippers and even the Spurs have used this style to mould their own offensive strategies, and in many ways going small and playing a high-tempo style has become the face of the league today.

On the other hand, the Celtics remain the old-school in-your face half-court unit, that depend on their ability to create plays off pick-and-roll situations and making the extra pass to find the open man. The belligerence of a certain Rondo excluded, the Celtics look most comfortable playing a grinding, pushing and slogging game, and Doc Rivers excels in running a team that way. Both teams are polar opposites in the way they approach the game and the primal reason why tomorrow’s game promises to be an enticing encounter.

What the Celtics need to do to win:

Offense:

The Celtics should continue to run their offense through Pierce, and run as many pick and roll’s as they can with him. Pierce should look to be aggressive, get to the paint as much as possible and also try to exploit possible switches, as well as dish to the rolling Garnett and Bass.

The Celtics could also try running Garnett on the low-post a lot, as his ability to create off the block, and his famed turn-around jumpers and floaters could come in handy against the Nuggets bigs’ like Koufos, McGee and Mozgov.

The Celtics also need to exploit the defensive vulnerabilities of Ty Lawson, and try to attack him on the dribble. Lawson remains the Nuggets weakest link on defense, and despite his willingness and energy, he still doesn’t do enough to keep a body on the opposition guards, and maybe a Courtney Lee or Avery Bradley can look to exploit the same.

Further expect the Celtics to continue with their core principles of sharing the ball, and with the Nuggets not famed for their defensive rotations, it is for sure to open up many open looks for the perimeter players. However, the Celtics have struggled with their perimeter shooting all throughout the season, one area where they have been severely depleted by the departure of Ray Allen. Jason Terry looks a pale shadow of the knock-down shooter he once was, but still manages to lead the Celtics in the 3-point % at a paltry 36%. The Celtics would wish that Terry and Pierce get hot from beyond the 3-point arc, because to beat the Nuggets, one has to knock down the perimeter shots.

The Nuggets are third in the league in scoring, and lead the league in steals. Their defense is designed to force turnovers, and with players like Igoudala, Lawson, Brewer and Faried running the floor, they are very dangerous on the open court, and transition opportunities. Thus, the Celtics would be required to take care of the ball, keep it moving, and to avoid getting into double teams and traps.

The mantra for the Celtics: Take care of the ball, rotate it and knock down the open shots.

Defense:

The Celtics have performed rather admirably on the defensive end of the floor. They have managed to keep teams like the Heat and the Lakers to under 100 points, and have a definite pedigree in handling their half-court defensive assignments. Doc Rivers is famed as a coach that gives a lot of priority to defense, and with the indomitable Garnett shoring up the paint, the Celtics are more than capable of snuffing off any possible half-courts sets that the Nuggets may deploy.

The only issue is that the Celtics still remain a veteran team, and with the Nuggets famed for their ability to garner easy points off fast-breaks and semi-transition opportunities, the Celtics would be hard-pressed to keep up with the energy and speed of the energetic and truculent Nuggets.

Another major problem with the Celtics is to nullify the offensive abilities of Ty Lawson. The pint-sized guard is among the best in the league in getting to the rim, and Bradley will have his task cut-out in trying to deny Lawson the space and time to make such plays. His best strategy could be to try and deny Lawson an open lane, and force him to settle for his somewhat suspect jump-shots.

Pierce will also have to stamp his authority, try to keep Gallinari under check and force him to put the ball on the floor and get to the rim, rather than shoot his famed rainbow jumpers. The Celtics will have to realize that the Nuggets have a system in which they are encouraged to take the open shot, and considering their percentages and efficiency from beyond the arc, the Celtics would be well-advised to force the Nuggets into a 3-point shooting contest.

The Celtics also need to ensure that they rebound well, as the Nuggets have high-energy bigs’ like Faried and McGee who will tire themselves out on the offensive glass. It is essential that the likes of Wilcox, Bass and Garnett keep a body on these players, box them out and do the dirty tasks well. As they wisely say. “Rebounds = Rings”.

Thus the mantra is to: Get back in transition; force the Nuggets to play off jump-shots and protect against dribble penetrations.

Key Player: Paul Pierce

What the Nuggets need to do to win:

Offense:

The Nuggets are the true embodiment of the System and their run-and-gun style has for certain set many trends in the league this year. With the addition of Igoudala, they now have a wing player who can run the floor, push the ball as well as earn steals and easy transition opportunities. Lawson, Brewer, Gallinari, Igoudala, Faried can all run the floor effectively, and with the veteran Celtics, the Nuggets should look to push the ball and play a high-tempo game. If Lawson and Igoudala can get going early, the Nuggets can expect to earn an easy victory.

However, if the Nuggets fail to earn easy transition and semi-transition opportunities, the job can get a bit tricky for them. Nuggets are a high-energy unit, but they lack players who can go ahead and create their own shots. Further, the Celtics are famed for their stifling team defensive, and the Nuggets would he hard-pressed to execute their half-court sets.

Nuggets in the half-court would rely a lot on the insuperable talents of Lawson. The Celtics know that he is the major offensive weapon for the Nuggets, and Bradley for sure has his task cut-out. However, Celtics are famed for their pick and roll defense, and with the paramount defensive ability of Garnett to bank on, the Celtics can surely be confident of defying the aggressive Lawson.

Thus the Nuggets would be ill-advised to depend too much on Lawson, and need to exploit the chinks in the defense of the Celtics. The Celtics may be one of the best defensive units as a team, but individually they don’t boast of many defensive experts. Pierce, Lee and Bass can all be exploited in an isolation set, and the onus is on the likes of Gallinari and Igoudala to do the same. Gallinari especially is vital to the Nuggets fortunes in this match, as his ability to shoot the ball to go along with his length and dribbling ability makes him a very tough defensive assignment for Pierce. Also, the veteran play-making abilities of Andre Miller and his post-up game, can come in handy against the second-unit of the Celtics.

The mantra for the Nuggets: play a high tempo, exploit isolation opportunities, get to the ring and knock down the open jumpers.

Defense:

The Nuggets are among the worst in the game in terms of their defensive ability, and the arrival of Igoudala or the emergence of Koufos and McGee as adept shot-blockers, hasn’t helped them much. They are 26th in the league in terms of points allowed, and their defense is one of the prime reasons behind their three game losing streak. The Nuggets gave away 119 points against the Nets, and if their defense doesn’t shore up against the Celtics they could be surely looking down the barrel.

The Nuggets need to be smart on the defensive and of the floor, be aggressive and try to force steals and turnovers. The Celtics do turnover the ball frequently, and without Rondo their offense does lack direction and purpose during stretches in the game. The Nuggets need to recognize such lapses, and make the most of these situations by forcing turnovers and getting easy transition plays.

The Celtics would run their offense through Pierce, and the onus is on Igoudala to take up the challenge and deny Pierce the freedom and space to dictate the offense. Igoudala is famed for his ability to play lock-down defense on the perimeter players, and George Karl would be banking on him to keep Pierce quiet. Pierce hurt the Nuggets dear in their last outing, raking in 27 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists, and if he manages to do anything similar tomorrow the Nuggets will be doomed.

The Nuggets should also pressurize the ball-handlers and force the Celtics to play quicker on the offensive end of the floor. Faried, Koufos and McGee have to ensure that the Celtic‘s big-men aren’t allowed to post-up deep, as well as be aware of the ability of Garnett and Bass to knock down the elbow jumpers. In short, the idea is to force the game to be played on the perimeter and defend the pick-and-rolls against Pierce and company better.

The mantra: Guard the p-n-r better, force Celtics to play high-tempo and take perimeter shots.

Key Player: Ty Lawson.

Prediction: The Celtics may be on a dream run, but against the Nuggets at home they would be hard-pressed to keep up with the high-tempo game of the Nuggets. Expect a great match, but the Nuggets should be able to win this on their home-court. They are 22-3 at home and expect the record to just get better. But, whoever saw the match at Boston garden would tell you that do not discount the heart and the will of the Celtics, and specially Paul Pierce who can be the X-Factor in this contest.