Mavericks' baffling Luka Doncic decision and why betting against the wunderkind will backfire

Most would agree, in basketball or any sport, to the importance of ‘culture’ to sustained success. It’s a nebulous term without a solid definition, but all of the greatest organizations in sports have it. There’s something in the air there, something that fuels winning games, playoff series and championships.

For Mavericks’ GM Nico Harrison, building that culture is paramount. He’s made that much clear, citing culture as a driving impetus for swapping Luka Doncic for Anthony Davis in one of the most shocking transactions in sports history. Harrison and the Mavs had reportedly grown tired of Doncic’s conditioning and health issues and his lack of commitment to fixing those issues.

Harrison’s vision, and it’s his vision alone, relies on antiquated descriptors of an indescribable culture. He cited defense as a primary component of this culture, adding one of the world’s best defenders in Anthony Davis. Whatever image Harrison paints of his ideal culture, Doncic’s habits don’t fit that.

But the Mavericks already have the formula’s rarest component: winning. There’s no manner more surefire to construct a culture than winning itself, and few players in NBA history drive winning more than Luka Doncic has. Where winning comes, ‘culture’ follows, and the Mavericks tanked their chances to win for the long-term future and arguably the current moment.

There’s little to say about Doncic’s accomplishments that haven’t been said. The 25-year-old wunderkind is one of the NBA’s most dominant offensive forces and has been for the vast majority of his young career. He’s one of two players since 1997 to average above 30 points per 75 possessions in his playoff career, the other being Michael Jordan.

Despite the old adage’s prevalence, in the modern NBA, offense, above all else, wins championships. We’ve seen this as recently as last year, with a historic Boston offense driving their title win over Dallas. Every title-winning team of the last decade aside from Golden State in 2022 and Los Angeles in 2020 boasted at least a top-7 regular season offense (per Cleaning The Glass), with most of those teams placing even higher.

The 2022 Warriors and 2020 Lakers, despite their offensive efficiency numbers, derived playoff offensive success from two of the greatest players in NBA history. Without an elite offense or one of the very best players in the league, winning a championship is nearly impossible.

As undeniably great as Anthony Davis is, he’s not one of the three best players in the NBA. Davis, like Kyrie Irving, has thrived on elite teams as a second offensive option. Davis will supercharge Dallas’s already strong defense, but the Mavericks defended at a high level WITH Doncic on the roster.

Harrison and Jason Kidd, who wasn’t looped in on the trade until it happened, claim this is a win-now move. The Mavs better hope that’s true: they’re currently the Western Conference’s 11th seed, out of the playoff mix entirely. They’re only 4.5 games back of the fifth-seeded Lakers, but Dallas has ground to make up.

Concerns surrounding Doncic’s health and fitness are legitimate, as he’s played only 22 games this season. But Davis and Irving are both on the wrong side of 30 and both carry substantial injury histories. The Mavs have dealt with injuries across their roster this season beyond their stars; Dereck Lively, Naji Marshall and newly acquired Caleb Martin have all missed at least 10 games this season, with Lively and Martin missing nearly 20.

Davis and Irving will form a dangerous pairing, especially on offense. Both are phenomenal scorers and creators who should thrive playing off of each other’s gravity. But without another move, another step in Harrison’s master plan to add another star like Kevin Durant to the mix, this Mavericks team won’t be a championship favorite in 2025.

The Lakers, on the other hand, received a gift from the heavens for their short and long-term future. Processing the trade will be challenging for the team and for LeBron James, who considers Davis as family. Austin Reaves has spoken about how much Davis has impacted his life, his kids and his family.

But basketball is a business and winning tends to paper over wounds. Concerns about LA’s interior play and wing depth will sit on Rob Pelinka’s mind, but there’s time for other marginal moves before the deadline or the buyout market. There’s no manner more surefire for winning in the NBA than adding a transformational initiator like Doncic.

Concerns about James and Doncic’s fit are vastly overblown. James, while still an excellent creator, will benefit from a decreased workload. Doncic and James are two of the most brilliant players in the history of basketball. They may take some time to gel, but they should pair smoothly, with James slotting into a secondary offensive role.

If his introductory press conference provides any indication, Doncic will play with something to prove. Loyalty matters to him and Dallas spurned his commitment to them. It’s possible roster limitations cap LA’s ceiling in 2025, but I wouldn’t bet against an angry Luka Doncic. Regardless of this season, though, the Lakers secured their future post-LeBron James and figure to contend for as long as Doncic’s prime lasts.

Harrison, by his own admission, believes the future only extends to three or four years beyond this point. Objective reality denies this fact; time keeps marching forward no matter Harrison’s attempts to deprioritize the future. Regardless of his employment status, the Dallas Mavericks aren’t going anywhere (unless they are). Decisions to mortgage their future will rear their heads eventually.

Dallas offering refunds to season ticket holders who canceled their packages doesn’t inspire much short-term confidence for this win-now move. Whether Nico Harrison is on an unchecked power trip or is angling for some other job in the future, the Mavs better hope this gamble pays off with, at minimum a Finals appearance this season. For the moment, their actions don’t reflect that aspiration.

Luka Doncic is a winning machine. He’s won basketball games at every level, from his days as a teenager in Madrid to the best basketball league on the planet. It’s hard to do better than that, but the Mavericks seem to believe they’ll have a better chance without Doncic’s problems looming over them. Will Harrison’s daydream of a sturdier culture compensate for the loss of a player like Doncic? For his and, more critically, for Dallas’s sake, he’d better hope they can pull off a seemingly impossible feat.