With the season almost halfway complete, this NBA season has seen some insane scoring numbers. Night after night, we're seeing crazy team scoring numbers being posted, reaching as high as 140 points.
To compare this with the previous season, throughout the entire 2017-18 regular season, 140 points were scored by either team in only 11 games. This season, though only 3 months into, it's already been done in 13 games. The average team PPG across the league is up too, meaning that all teams, on average, are scoring more this year than last. Here's why.
#1 Jump in Offensive Rating
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The offensive rating is a statistic to measure a team's offensive performance. Over the years, the average offensive rating in the league has had a pretty steady climb, a general upward trend. However, there's been a very significant jump from last year to this year, meaning that team offenses are better than ever - leading to more scoring.
In fact, the offensive rating this year is the highest the NBA has ever seen, an all-time high of 109.8. Towards the beginning of the season, it was even higher, hitting as much as 110.5.
League players themselves say that teams are more centered around offense rather than defense this year, which is why scoring is so high. "Defense isn't really an emphasis anymore in this league. So I think you're seeing it all around the league with these high scores.", said Draymond Green to reporters.
The jump in offensive rating is also because of the general skill level getting better - as the years go by, rookies are getting better and better - we've seen this ourselves in rookies like Jayson Tatum, Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, and now, Luka Doncic - who have performed outstandingly in their rookie years. The skill level across the league is improving, meaning players can make shots better, which again, leads to more scoring.
#2 Increased pace and fast-breaks
Teams are also running at a much quicker pace this season, attempting to increase the number of shot attempts, and thus manage to score more. Mainly, the possessions per game across the league have gone up drastically, by approximately 4 possessions per team.
This equates to, on average, 8 extra possessions a game where teams have the opportunity to take shots, which is the opportunity to get another 20 points or so every game.
The mentality makes sense - the faster you run plays, the more time you have in the game, which leads to more scoring. It also gives the defense less time to recover, leaving teams more open, and thus, easy to convert shots.
Teams are finally adopting this, by trying to score in transition more. Fastbreak frequency is up by a lot, throughout the league, teams are attempting to score more and more on fastbreak opportunities. Naturally, the number of fastbreak points is also up from last year, contributing to the spike in scoring we're seeing.
Shots taken in the early seconds of the shot clock are also much more than the previous years. Teams are attempting more and more shots in the first six seconds of their possession, especially 3-pointers off quick screens, leading to a very high rate of scoring. Three-point frequency is also up, with some teams recording over half their attempted shots as 3-pointers.
#3 Rule changes
Rule changes have also had a large effect on the increased scoring. However, it's not the rule you're thinking of - the 14-second shot clock reset. Now, on an offensive rebound, the shot clock resets to 14 instead of 24. However, this has not had a very profound effect on scoring, since this only makes a difference during the final seconds of a game when the score is low, which is very rare.
The rule that does change things, however, is the emphasis on freedom of movement. Referees are calling more and more fouls on contact, even off-ball, allowing a lot less contact than before while defending a player. Players are no longer allowed to maintain contact while defending, which causes two things.
First, there are a lot more foul calls per game, leading to an increased number of free throws. Free throws essentially are free points for a team - with the shot clock off. While this does affect scoring, it is very little, since an extra couple of free throws a game can amount to a maximum of 2-3 points on either side.
However, what this rule truly does effect is the mentality when it comes to defense. Defenders, knowing that fouls are called more easily on contact, attempt to give their man more space so that a foul is not called.
This lets the offense run free, giving them more space to take a high percentage shot, especially after moving the ball around a bit. Since the defense cannot be as physical, offenses get to take better shots, leading to more scoring.
Thus, due to various factors, this season has seen a huge uptick in scoring, with tremendously large team scores. This season will most definitely break quite a few scoring records, and such scores will keep getting posted throughout the season.
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